Billionaire in Bolivia Wants to Wrest Presidency From Leftists
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The richest man in one of Latin America's poorest nations is on a mission to save his country.
Bolivian billionaire Marcelo Claure says he's ready to use his financial might to defeat the ruling socialist party and install a pro-market president in this year's elections. The landlocked nation is facing its worst economic crisis in decades as soaring inflation and growing fuel shortages disrupt daily life, and Claure thinks August's vote is the best opportunity in years to elect a business friendly government.
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2 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trading Day: Stocks bounce back, bonds more cautious
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Investors shrugged off last week's worries over the U.S. economy to drive a powerful, tech-led rebound across global stocks on Monday, although U.S. Treasuries prices held onto Friday's gains, suggesting a fair degree of caution persists. More on all that below. In my column today I look at why rather than firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, President Donald Trump could have claimed that the weak jobs data and dramatic market reaction vindicated his stance that the Fed should cut rates. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Brexit's parallels with Trump tariffs tell a tale: MikeDolan 2. Never mind Wall Street records, investors rethink USmarket supremacy 3. Latest Trump tariffs unlikely to budge, top negotiatorsays 4. BOJ gears up to hike rates again but leaves free hand ontiming 5. BP makes its largest oil and gas discovery in 25 yearsoffshore Brazil Today's Key Market Moves * FX: Most emerging currencies rise against a soft LatAm FX index has biggest 2-day rise in 2 months. * STOCKS: Main Asian, European, U.S. global indices allrise strongly. Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 lead U.S. rally, bothup 2%. * SHARES/SECTORS: S&P 500 communications index +2.6% andtech index +2.2%. Nvidia shares +3.6%, Tesla +2.2%. * BONDS: Treasuries prices rise, pushing 2-year yield to a3-month low of 3.66%. Yields down 2 bps across the curve. * COMMODITIES: Oil falls around 1.5% to its lowest in aweek after OPEC+ agrees to another large output increase. Stocks bounce back, bonds more cautious After getting slammed on Friday by unexpectedly poor U.S. employment figures, U.S. and world stocks rebounded on Monday. Whether this is a short-term technical recovery or the resumption of the bull run of recent months remains to be seen. In isolation, the positive start to the week has been pretty impressive. Wall Street more than recovered the ground it lost on Friday, led by the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, as investors bet that both tech and small caps would be among the big winners in a lower interest rate world. The global recovery was probably overdue. The MSCI All Country index's rise on Monday snapped a six-session losing streak, its worst run in nearly two years. While Friday's slump in U.S. bond yields reflected deepening growth fears and contributed to the huge equity selloff, the further drift lower in yields on Monday supported equity sentiment. The feel good factor could prove fleeting though. The U.S.-centric issues that drove last week's selloff - growth fears, tariff concerns and unusually high levels of policy uncertainty - haven't disappeared. Trump said on Monday he will substantially raise tariffs on goods from India over its Russian oil purchases, while Switzerland says it is ready to make a "more attractive offer" to Washington to avert the steep 39% tariffs it is facing. Investors are increasingly nervous about political interference in independent U.S. institutions after Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer for allegedly rigging the jobs data. This comes amid Trump's verbal attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, and as he prepares to announce his nomination to replace Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who surprisingly resigned on Friday. Looking ahead to Tuesday, the U.S. earnings calendar heats up again and purchasing managers index data will give an insight into how the service sectors in many of the world's major economies fared in July. Trump scores major own goal with labor official firing U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to fire a top labor official following weak jobs data obviously sends ominous signals about political interference in independent institutions, but it is also a major strategic own goal. Trump has spent six months attacking the Federal Reserve, and Chair Jerome Powell in particular, for not cutting interest rates. The barbs culminated in Trump branding Powell a "stubborn MORON" in a social media post on Friday before the July jobs report was released. The numbers, especially the net downward revision of 258,000 for May and June payrolls growth, were much weaker than expected. In fact, this was "the largest two-month revision since 1968 outside of NBER-defined recessions (assuming the economy is not in recession now)," according to Goldman Sachs. This sparked a dramatic reaction in financial markets. Fed rate cut expectations soared, the two-year Treasury yield had its steepest fall in a year, and the dollar tumbled. A quarter-point rate cut next month and another by December were suddenly nailed-on certainties, according to rate futures market pricing. This was a huge U-turn from only 48 hours before, when Powell's hawkish steer in his post-FOMC meeting press conference raised the prospect of no easing at all this year. Trump's constant lambasting of "Too Late" Powell suddenly appeared to have a bit more substance behind it. The Fed chair's rate cut caution centers on the labor market, which now appears nowhere near as "solid" as he thought. Trump could have responded by saying: "I was right, and Powell was wrong." Instead, on Friday afternoon he said he was firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, for faking the jobs numbers. Trump provided no evidence of data manipulation. So rather than point out that markets were finally coming around to his way of thinking on the need for lower interest rates, Trump has united economists, analysts and investors in condemnation of what they say is brazen political interference typically associated with underdeveloped and unstable nations rather than the self-proclaimed 'leader of the free world.' "A dark day in, and for, the U.S.," economist Phil Suttle wrote on Friday. "This is the sort of thing only the worst populists do in the worst emerging economies and, to use the style of President Trump, IT NEVER ENDS WELL." UNCERTAINTY PREMIUM It's important to note that major – even historic – revisions to jobs growth figures are not necessarily indicative of underlying data collection flaws. As Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale, argued on X over the weekend: "BLS's first-release estimates of non-farm payroll employment have gotten more, not less, accurate over time." It should also be noted that the BLS compiles inflation as well as employment data, so, moving forward, significant doubt could surround the credibility of the two most important economic indicators for the U.S. - and perhaps the world. Part of what constitutes "U.S. exceptionalism" is the assumption that the experts leading the country's independent institutions are exactly that, independent, meaning their actions and output can be trusted, whatever the results. Baseless accusations from the U.S. president that the BLS, the Fed and other agencies are making politically motivated decisions to undermine his administration only undermine trust in the U.S. itself. "If doubts are sustained, it will lead investors to demand more of a risk premium to own U.S. assets," says Rebecca Patterson, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "While only one of many forces driving asset valuations, it will limit returns across markets." This furor comes as Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's resignation on Friday gives Trump the chance to put a third nominee on the seven-person Fed board, perhaps a potential future chair to fill that slot as a holding place until Powell's term expires in May. Whoever that person is will likely be more of a policy dove than a hawk. Policy uncertainty, which had been gradually subsiding since the April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff turmoil, is now very much back on investors' radar. What could move markets tomorrow? * China, Japan, euro zone services PMIs (July) * South Korea inflation (July) * U.S. services PMI, ISM (July) * U.S. trade (June) * U.S. Treasury auctions $58 bln of 3-year notes * U.S. earnings including Caterpillar, AMD and Pfizer Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot) Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
2 minutes ago
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Tories demand Reeves ‘urgently rule out' investment tax hikes
The Conservatives are demanding Chancellor Rachel Reeves 'urgently rule out' raising shares taxes in the autumn budget, claiming that leaving investors 'in limbo' will damage the economy. The Tories claim scrapping the £500 dividend allowance will drag an estimated 5.22 million more people into paying investment levies. The party is seeking to pile pressure on ministers after a memo sent by Angela Rayner to Ms Reeves, in which the Deputy Prime Minister suggested a series of tax hikes, was leaked to the press. In the document, Ms Rayner proposed removing the dividend allowance to raise around £325 million a year in revenue, as well as axing inheritance tax relief for AIM shares and increasing dividend tax rates, the Telegraph reported. Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: 'The Government need to urgently rule out these tax hikes on savers and investors before speculation causes further economic harm. 'Labour don't understand how business works and how to create growth. More taxes on investment, entrepreneurship and saving are the last thing our economy needs right now.' The Government's U-turns over welfare reform and winter fuel payments have left the Chancellor with a multibillion-pound black hole to fill, fuelling speculation that she will seek to raise revenue through tax hikes. The Tories claimed axing the dividend allowance would drag 'an estimated 5.22 million more people into paying dividend tax'. This figure appears to be based on an assumption that at least 8.82 million people in the UK hold shares that pay dividends. Some 3.6 million are already subject to dividend tax, according to data obtained by investment platform AJ Bell through a Freedom of Information request. The Chancellor last year said she would not be 'coming back with more borrowing or more taxes' after her first budget but has since refused to rule out raising specific levies, saying it would be 'irresponsible' to do so. A Labour Party spokesperson said: 'The Conservatives have some brass neck. They've still not apologised for the damage caused by the Liz Truss mini-Budget, nor the £22 billion black hole they left – which hammered firms and families across the country. 'Labour is doing more to support business than the Tories ever could. 'We've already delivered three historic trade deals and four interest rate cuts – to reduce costs and put money back in people's pockets.'
New York Times
5 minutes ago
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The America We Knew Is Rapidly Slipping Away
Of all the terrible things Donald Trump has said and done as president, the most dangerous one just happened on Friday. Trump, in effect, ordered our trusted and independent government office of economic statistics to become as big a liar as he is. He fired Erika McEntarfer, the Senate-confirmed head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for bringing him economic news he did not like, and in the hours immediately following, the second most dangerous thing happened: The senior Trump officials most responsible for running our economy — people who in their private businesses never would have contemplated firing a subordinate who brought them financial data they did not like — all went along for the ride. Rather than saying to Trump: Mr. President, if you don't reconsider this decision — if you fire the top labor bureau statistician because she brought you bad economic news — how will anyone in the future trust that office when it issues good news' — they immediately covered for him. As The Wall Street Journal pointed out, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer had actually gone on Bloomberg TV early Friday and declared that even though the jobs report that had just been released was revised downward for May and June, 'we've seen positive job growth.' But as soon as she got the news hours later that Trump had fired the very B.L.S. director who reports to her, she wrote on X: 'I agree wholeheartedly with @POTUS that our jobs numbers must be fair, accurate, and never manipulated for political purposes.' As The Journal asked: 'So were the jobs data that were 'positive' in the morning rigged by the afternoon?' Of course not. The moment I heard what Trump had done, I had a flashback. It was January 2021, and it had just been reported that Trump, after losing the 2020 election, had tried to pressure Georgia's Republican secretary of state to 'find' him enough votes — exactly 11,780, Trump said — to overturn the presidential election and even threatened him with 'a criminal offense' if he didn't. The pressure came during an hourlong telephone call, according to an audio recording of the conversation. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
