Whopping $82.3 billion cost? Donald Trump's tariffs may hit US employers in a big way, says JPMorganChase Institute analysis
The report, Exposure to tariffs for midsize firms by metro area, published by the JPMorganChase Institute, is among the first to quantify the immediate impact on mid-sized American companies with annual revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, according to an AP report.
These firms, employing roughly one-third of the country's private-sector workforce, are majorly dependent on imports from countries like China, India and Thailand, with retail and wholesale sectors seen as especially vulnerable to the import taxes.
The findings directly challenge Trump's claims that the burden of tariffs would fall on foreign manufacturers, not US firms. While inflation has so far remained stable, retail giants such as Amazon, Costco and Walmart had anticipated disruption by stockpiling goods before tariffs took effect.
The timing of the analysis is crucial, coming almost a week ahead of the July 9 deadline, set by Trump to finalise tariff rates on imports from dozens of countries.
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The deadline came after financial markets were rattled by his April announcements, prompting him to schedule a 90-day negotiating period. Had the April 2 tariffs stayed in place, the same group of firms would have faced a steeper hit of $187.6 billion.
Based on the current rates, the average cost per employee would be around $2,080 amounting to 3.1% of a typical company's annual payroll. This also includes employees from firms that do not rely on import goods.
'Our estimation explicitly considers direct costs, defined as costs to firms that physically import goods and pay the import tariffs, and is based on goods trade amounts from 2022, the latest year for which all data are available,' the report said.
Higher costs may push for alternate approaches
After the import tariffs come into effect the importer may switch to manage these costs through a variety of approaches. These might include raising sales prices or switching to a different supplier subjected to lower or no tariffs.
However, it might also not be a feasible option as alternative suppliers may charge higher prices and in some cases, alternate suppliers might not even exist.
What comes after the 90-day pause
As the 90-day period comes to an end, only the United Kingdom has signed a trade framework so far. India and Vietnam have also said that they are also close to locking in a deal with the US.
There is a growing concern that tariffs might push inflation.
Goldman Sachs forecasted that US companies are likely to pass along 60% of their tariff costs to consumers.
A separate survey by the Atlanta Federal Reserve also suggested that around half of the costs from 10% to 25% tariffs could be shifted to customers without affecting consumer demand.
The JPMorganChase report also noted that the tariffs may present an opportunity for domestic manufacturers to strengthen their supply chains. However, given the already narrow margins in retail and wholesale, many companies may have little choice but to pass on additional costs to the customers.
'Everything's going well'
When asked on Tuesday about the status of ongoing trade talks, Trump offered a brief reply.
'Everything's going well,' he said.
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent defended the administration's strategy, claiming long-serving government officials have been impressed with the progress.
'People who have been at Treasury, at Commerce, at USTR for 20 years are saying that these are deals like they've never seen before,' Bessent told Fox News Channel's Fox & Friends on Tuesday.
The Trump administration is also expected to begin mapping out its broader trade deal plans next week.
In the meantime, Trump linked the success of the tariff policy to funding a newly passed multitrillion-dollar tax cuts package, which Republicans pushed through the Senate on Tuesday.
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