Rand crashes through R18/$ amid tariff turmoil, US rate outlook

News24

4 days ago

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Markets mostly fell on Thursday while the dollar held most of its gains as traders weighed a cautious Federal Reserve with strong tech earnings and Donald Trump's tariffs on key economies South Korea and India.
The rand breached R18/$ for the first time in more than a month, and was trading at R18.07 by late morning. The local currency has lost almost 3% of its value over the past week.
The US central bank held interest rates steady and refrained from suggesting it would cut any time soon despite.
While two members of the policyboard took the rare move of dissenting and voting to cut, investors pared their bets on a reduction in September sending the dollar rallying against its peers.
'For South Africa, hopes are high for another interest rate cut on Thursday, which would see a rapid interest rate cut cycle since September last year in contrast to the Fed, with the SARB then only missing one meeting in March to deliver a -25bp cut so far,' said Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop.
Bishop said tariff concerns were also weighing on the rand.
Earlier on Thursday, Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau confirmed that a deal has not been reached with the US, and added that SA may submit a new last-minute offer before the deadline of August 1.
The latest developments on the trade front saw Trump announce a deal that sees 15 percent tariffs on South Korean goods and a commitment from Seoul to invest $350 billion in the United States.
He also said India would face 25 percent tolls, coupled with an unspecified penalty over New Delhi's purchases of Russian weapons and energy.
And he signed an executive order implementing an additional tax on Brazilian products, as he lambasts what he calls Brazil's "witch hunt" against his far-right ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro on coup charges.
Traders are keeping tabs on talks with other countries that are yet to sign deals with Washington ahead of Trump's self-imposed Friday deadline.
After a broadly negative day on Wall Street, Asian markets struggled.
Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Manila, Wellington and Jakarta all fell, though Tokyo, Taipei, Mumbai and Bangkok edged up.
London, Paris and Frankfurt rose in the morning. The JSE's All Share index was flat. MTN surged 6% after its Nigerian business reported strong half-year results. But Anheuser-Busch slumped almost 9% after its results disappointed.
Inflation risk
The Fed cited a moderation in economic activity in the first half and 'solid' labour market conditions but warned 'uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated', while inflation too is somewhat heightened.
Asked about Trump's tariff deals and whether they brought more certainty, Fed boss Jerome Powell told reporters: 'It's been a very dynamic time for these trade negotiations.'
He added that 'we're still a ways away from seeing where things settle down'.
Kerry Craig of JP Morgan Asset Management said: 'With some details on baseline tariffs only just becoming clear, and many of the details of the recently agreed 'deals' still to be ironed out, the risk is that inflation rates will continue to rise in the coming months.'
US jobs data due Friday will be closely watched for a fresh look at the state of the world's top economy, with a weak reading likely to put pressure on the Fed to cut.
The yen retreated against the dollar after the Bank of Japan decided against hiking interest rates, while lifting economic growth and inflation costs. It also cautiously welcomed the country's trade deal with the United States.
While the rising inflation outlook opened the door to a potential rate hike later in the year, Yuxuan Tang at JP Morgan Private Bank said such a move was "still highly uncertain".
"BoJ policymakers face a delicate balancing act between competing policy dilemmas, including sticky inflation, lukewarm consumer demand, fiscal pressures, and tariff impacts," he wrote in a commentary.
Traders had been given a healthy lead from the tech sector after titans Microsoft and Meta posted better-than-expected earnings, sending their stocks soaring in after-market trade.
Amazon and Apple are due to release later Thursday.