Three Boxer Fighters and an Unprecedented Abyss

Asharq Al-Awsat

2 days ago

Unprecedented scenes in this terrifying region. In the scorching Middle Eastern ring, three great boxers face off over patches of blood and lakes of rubble. The people of the region woke up to the news that US bombers had struck three Iranian nuclear facilities at dawn. The Israelis woke up to destruction they had never seen since the founding of the state in 1948. The people of Iran awoke to Israeli fighter jets having seized their skies, raining down missiles on military bases, radars, and launch sites, hunting down generals and nuclear scientists.
The three boxers whose decisions will determine whether the region is secure and stable, as well as the health of the arteries that connect the region to the world. The story is bigger and more dangerous than Hormuz. Three men who can land heavy blows cannot back down after having gone too far. Three boxers, each seeking either to expand his country's influence or restore its greatness.
The eldest of the boxers was born on June 14, 1946. That is, he happened to be born in the month that engendered more wars in the Middle East than any other. In another coincidence, he celebrated his birthday the day after Israeli raids on Iran. A few days ago, he entered the final year of his seventies, and his eighties will catch up to him in the White House.
He has not fought in Vietnam or elsewhere. He chose to go into business and learned 'the art of the deal.' Profit is his obsession, and he hates to admit defeat. He understood the magic of the screen, making regular appearances before Americans, who memorized his famous line: 'You're fired.'
Success in real estate fueled his desire for the keys to the White House. He jumped between parties before joining the Republicans, eventually managing to take over the party and win the race to the White House.
A man who did not belong to the establishment became the decision-maker of the "only remaining superpower. "In his first term, Donald Trump made two dangerous decisions relevant to current development. The first was withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran, and the second was the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad International Airport.
Before his second term, however, he presented himself as a candidate eager to end wars and go down in history as a peace-maker with a Nobel Prize.
In addressing Iran's nuclear program, he negotiated, set deadlines, and made terrifying threats. The result was what it was. His engagement was crowned by American raids on Iran's nuclear facilities.
The second boxer was born on April 19, 1939. He is now sailing through the second half of his eighties. On June 4, 1989, he became known as the 'Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution.' It is not a mandate achievement to be entrusted with Khomeini's legacy and granted unlimited powers in a country like Iran. Ali Khamenei stuck to the policy of exporting the revolution- a goal that has been enshrined into the Iranian constitution. He backed Qassem Soleimani's plans to surround Israel and the region with missiles and 'parallel armies.'
Under Khamenei's leadership, Iran made gains in post-Saddam Iraq, post-Ali Abdullah Saleh Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. However, its successes were destroyed by something like a hurricane after Yahya Sinwar's 'Flood.' The Syrian front collapsed, and Bashar al-Assad is watching the flames spread from his Russian exile, while Ahmad al-Sharaa has managed to steer Syria away from the line of fire.
In a scene that must have been no less painful to the Supreme Leader, Lebanon's Hezbollah was deprived of Hassan Nasrallah. It has lost the capabilities needed to wage a new war against Israel, even in defense of Iran itself. It was difficult for Khamenei, now in the latter half of his eighties, to offer a major concession to Soleimani's killer in hopes of avoiding strikes from Nasrallah's assassin.
The Supreme Leader has witnessed many unprecedented scenes recently: Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, was killed in Tehran itself. Nasrallah was killed in Beirut, along with several of his top aides. Sinwar and other Hamas leaders were killed in Gaza. Ahmad al-Sharaa shook hands and received promises of aid, washing Syria's hands of the Iranian era.
Then came Trump, offering Iran a future without Syria, without the militias, and without the insurance policy that it increasingly needs: a nuclear bomb, or being on the verge of obtaining one. Khamenei could not prevent the two other boxers from ganging up on his country.
The third boxer was born in Tel Aviv on October 21, 1949. He is now in the latter half of his seventies. He has broken a number of records and exhausted the region. He has spent 17 years in the prime minister's office so far, outlasting all of his predecessors. He has also killed more Palestinian people and leaders than anyone else, and the same applies to senior figures in Lebanon's Hezbollah.
For many years, he has been dreaming of taking his battle to its 'real theater,' of a direct clash with Iran. Indeed, he has long regarded Iran's nuclear program as an 'existential threat' and has repeatedly knocked on the White House door seeking American help to unleash a hurricane in Iran. It is clear that Benjamin Netanyahu managed to get into Trump's head. He has shaped the latter's calculations and pivots.
The future of the region now hinges on the decisions of three heavyweight boxers. All of them have their historic legacies on their minds. The game is delicate and dangerous. If the Iranian boxer retaliates directly against the American boxer, the scale of the ensuing conflict could undermine the very foundations of the regime itself. It is hard to imagine that he could keep exchanging blows with the Israeli boxer without triggering American intervention.
Addressing a small circle of confidants one day, Qassem Soleimani claimed that America is the thread that maintains the 'unjust balances' in the Middle East. 'This thread must be cut, and this is possible.' He also said that if Israel is an American aircraft carrier, then carriers can be sunk by piercing deep holes into them and pushing their inhabitants to lose faith in their army and government.
Have the Israeli and American boxers now agreed to destroy the Iranian nuclear program and sever the thread that ties Tehran to its proxies?
They are three great boxers. Unprecedented scenes. So who can pull the terrifying Middle East back from the brink?