Trump and Xi will act tough but won't allow ‘free fall' in US-China ties: Ryan Hass
He served as a foreign service officer in the US embassies in Beijing, Seoul and Ulaanbaatar, and in the State Department offices of Taiwan coordination and Korean affairs.
This interview
first appeared in SCMP Plus. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click
here
What is the likely scenario for after the current trade truce, and what will be the outlook for China–US relations during Trump's second term?
I would venture to guess that not even [US President Donald] Trump can confidently predict how the
90-day truce will end. I think there are a couple of reasons for this. First, President Trump is not following any type of intricate master strategy with detailed steps leading to an ultimate conclusion.
He's experimenting and adapting to changing circumstances until he arrives at an outcome that he believes he can characterise as a win.
Second, the trade war will be influenced by a lot of factors completely apart from and outside of the US-China relationship. For example, will the United States economy be in recession later this year? Will China's economy be experiencing significant downward pressure?
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