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Los Angeles Times
15 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
Along with a strong second quarter rebound for the economy, some red flags
The U.S. economy expanded at a surprising 3% annual pace from April through June, bouncing back at least temporarily from a first-quarter drop that reflected disruptions from President Donald Trump's trade wars. Still, details of the report suggested that U.S. consumers and businesses are wary about the economic uncertainty arising from Trump's radical campaign to restructure the American economy by slapping big taxes — tariffs — on imports from around the world. 'Headline numbers are hiding the economy's true performance, which is slowing as tariffs take a bite out of activity,' Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote. America gross domestic product — the nation's output of goods and services — rebounded after falling at a 0.5% clip from January through March, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The first-quarter drop, the first retreat of the U.S. economy in three years, was mainly caused by a surge in imports — which are subtracted from GDP — as businesses scrambled to bring in foreign goods ahead of Trump's tariffs. The bounceback was expected but its strength was a surprise: Economists had forecast 2% growth from April through June. From April through June, a drop in imports — the biggest since the COVID-19 outbreak — added more than 5 percentage points to growth. Consumer spending registered lackluster growth of 1.4%, though it was an improvement over the first quarter's 0.5%. Private investment fell at a 15.6% annual pace, biggest drop since COVID-19 slammed the economy. A drop in inventories — as businesses worked down goods they'd stockpiled in the first quarter — shaved 3.2 percentage points off second-quarter growth. A category within the GDP data that measures the economy's underlying strength weakened in the second quarter, expanding at a 1.2% annual pace, down from 1.9% from January through March and the weakest since the end of 2022. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending. Federal government spending and investment fell at a 3.7% annual rate on top of a 4.6% drop in the first quarter. Wednesday's GDP report showed inflationary pressure easing in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index – rose at an annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, down from 3.7% in the first. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, so-called core PCE inflation rose 2.5%, down from 3.5% in the first quarter. On his Truth Social media platform, Trump heralded the GDP gain and stepped up his pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates: '2Q GDP JUST OUT: 3%, WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED! 'Too Late' MUST NOW LOWER THE RATE. No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes!'' Trump sees tariffs as a way to protect American industry, lure factories back to the United States and help pay for the massive tax cuts he signed into law July 4. But mainstream economists — viewed with disdain by Trump and his advisers — say that his tariffs will damage the economy, raising costs and making protected U.S. companies less efficient. They note that tariffs are paid by importers in the United States, who try to pass along the cost to their customers via higher prices. Therefore, tariffs can be inflationary — though their impact so far has been modest. Wiseman writes for the Associated Press.


CNN
15 minutes ago
- CNN
Electricity costs are rising under Trump. Democrats want to make it an issue for the midterms
President Donald Trump came into office promising to lower energy and electricity costs. But with the cost of electricity rising, congressional Democrats and left-leaning groups see an opening to go on the offense ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. A Wednesday letter led by Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts to six of Trump's cabinet secretaries asks administration officials to explain why they are cutting programs to help Americans pay for high energy costs, while passing a tax cut bill that eliminated incentives for cheaper forms of energy like wind and solar. The letter was signed by three other Democratic senators: Ed Markey of Massachusetts, Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island. The letter was first provided to CNN. 'Rather than keeping his campaign promise to 'cut the price of energy and electricity in half,' President Trump's shortsighted approach to energy policy is driving prices higher and doing so quickly,' the letter reads. 'Instead of feeling relief, families are paying higher and higher utility bills.' Warren's letter asks the Trump administration about several of its actions that could contribute to raising electricity costs, including mandating aging fossil fuel power plants to continue operating and proposing cutting federal programs that help low-income Americans pay their energy bills. Since 2022, retail electricity prices have increased faster than the rate of inflation, according to the US Energy Information Administration, which predicts prices will continue to rise through next year. Electricity prices are Americans' second biggest annual energy expense, after paying for gasoline to fuel their vehicles, the EIA found. An independent analysis from think tank Energy Innovation shows that US household energy bills will be higher over the next decade now that Republicans have passed Trump's tax and spending bill, which shredded incentives for cheap forms of energy like wind and solar as well as electric vehicles and energy efficient appliances. Trump's tax changes are expected to reduce the amount of cheap renewables on the grid and increase the cost of building them. Wind and solar are now largely cheaper than fossil fuels like natural gas and coal, and adding more renewable energy to the grid helps keep utility bills lower, experts say. A White House spokesperson repeated administration officials' claims that wind and solar have increased electricity costs because they are intermittent and don't stay on 24/7. That intermittency has diminished with the entrance of battery storage, which allows renewable energy to power the grid even when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. 'The previous administration's reliance on unreliable wind and solar, while dismantling American energy dominance, led to higher costs,' White House spokesperson Harrison Fields told CNN in a statement. 'The Trump administration is working tirelessly to undo this damage and continue the success of lowering prices for consumers.' Prices for US natural gas, which generates most US electricity, have also gone up, and the EIA predicts they will continue to do so next year. 'You're moving from not using a lot of fossil fuels to using a lot of fossil fuels. That makes the price go up a lot,' Robbie Orvis, Energy Innovation's senior director of modeling and analysis, told CNN recently. Congressional Democrats and Democratic-aligned groups are pouncing on the rising electricity costs ahead of the 2026 midterms. 'We know that this issue of rising utility bills is top of mind for voters and we know Republicans voted to raise their utility bills,' said Alex Witt, the senior advisor for accountability campaigns at Climate Power, a left-leaning group focused on clean energy and climate. 'We're doing everything we can to make sure they pay the political price for that.' Climate Power is focused on states that are already seeing electricity prices spike, Witt said, including Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Jersey. 'In terms of the impact of (Trump's) bill, it's only going to become more real for folks,' Witt said. 'As long as that's the case, we're going to be driving that accountability.'


Politico
16 minutes ago
- Politico
‘ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!': Trump says he's imposing 25 percent tariff on India
President Donald Trump announced Wednesday he is imposing a 25 percent tariff on India that will go into force at the end of the week, in addition to a penalty because of the country's energy and military purchases from Russia. 'Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country,' Trump wrote on Truth Social. 'Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia's largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD! INDIA WILL THEREFORE BE PAYING A TARIFF OF 25%, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING ON AUGUST FIRST,' the post added.