The Panel with Sue Bradford & Scott Campbell (Part 1)
Sue Bradford is an activist, advocate and former Green MP
Scott Campbell is managing director of Strategicly Consulting and a former TV3 political journalist
Trucks transport army tanks on a road in Muridke, about 30 kilometres from Lahore, on May 7, 2025.
Photo:
AFP / Murtaz Ali
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RNZ News
a day ago
- RNZ News
Trump is not like other presidents – but can he beat the ‘second term curse' that haunts the White House?
By Garritt C Van Dyk* of Donald Trump doesn't quite fit the mould of former presidents, Garritt C Van Dyk writes. Photo: AFP / BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI Analysis : While he likes to provoke opponents with the possibility of serving a third term, Donald Trump faces a more immediate historical burden that has plagued so many presidents: the "second term curse". Twenty-one US presidents have served second terms, but none has reached the same level of success they achieved in their first. Second term performances have ranged from the lacklustre and uninspiring to the disastrous and deadly. Voter dissatisfaction and frustration, presidential fatigue and a lack of sustainable vision for the future are all explanations. But Trump doesn't quite fit the mould. Only one other president, Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century, has served a second nonconsecutive term, making Trump 2.0 difficult to measure against other second-term leaders. Trump will certainly be hoping history doesn't repeat Cleveland's second-term curse. Shortly after taking office he imposed 50 percent tariffs, triggering global market volatility that culminated in the "Panic of 1893". At the time, this was the worst depression in US history: 19 percent unemployment, a run on gold from the US Treasury, a stock market crash and widespread poverty. More than a century on, Trump's "move fast and break things" approach in a nonconsecutive second term might appeal to voters demanding action above all else. But he risks being drawn into areas he campaigned against. So far, he has gone from fighting a trade war and a culture war to contemplating a shooting war in the Middle East. His "big beautiful bill" will add trillions to the national debt and potentially force poorer voters - including many Republicans - off Medicaid. Whether his radical approach will defy or conform to the second term curse seems very much an open question. Photo: AFP The two-term limit was enacted by the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution in 1951. Without a maximum term, it was feared, an authoritarian could try to take control for life - like a king (hence the recent "No Kings" protests in the US). George Washington, James Madison and Thomas Jefferson all declined to serve a third term. Jefferson was suspicious of any president who would try to be re-elected a third time, writing: "Should a President consent to be a candidate for a 3d. [sic] election, I trust he would be rejected on this demonstration of ambitious views." Demonstrators participate in the nationwide 'Defend Democracy' 50501 National Day of Protest to protest against Project 2025 and the policies of President Donald Trump, in Cincinnati, Ohio, on 4 March, 2025. Photo: AFP/ NurPhoto - Jason Whitman There is a myth that after Franklin Delano Roosevelt broke the de facto limit of two terms set by the early presidents, the ghost of George Washington placed a curse on anyone serving more than four years. At best, second-term presidencies have been tepid compared to the achievements in the previous four years. After World War II, some two-term presidents (Eisenhower, Reagan and Obama) started out strong but faltered after re-election. Eisenhower extricated the US from the Korean War in his first term, but faced domestic backlash and race riots in his second. He had to send 500 paratroopers to escort nine Black high school students in Little Rock, Arkansas, to enforce a federal desegregation order. Reagan made significant tax and spending cuts, and saw the Soviet Union crumble in term one. But the Iran-Contra scandal and watered down tax reform defined term two. Obama started strongly, introducing health care reform and uniting the Democratic voter base. After re-election, however, the Democrats lost the House, the Senate, a Supreme Court nomination, and faced scandals over the Snowden security leaks and Internal Revenue Service targeting of conservative groups. Truly disastrous examples of second term presidencies include Abraham Lincoln (assassination), Woodrow Wilson (World War I, failure of the League of Nations, a stroke), Richard Nixon (Watergate, impeachment and resignation), and Bill Clinton (Lewinsky scandal and impeachment). Former US president Bill Clinton pictured in 2019. Photo: AFP or licensors It may be too early to predict how Trump will feature in this pantheon of less-than-greatness. But his approval ratings recently hit an all-time low as Americans reacted to the bombing of Iran and deployment of troops in Los Angeles . A recent YouGov poll showed voters giving negative approval ratings for his handling of inflation, jobs, immigration, national security and foreign policy. While there has been plenty of action, it may be the levels of uncertainty, drastic change and market volatility are more extreme than some bargained for. An uncooperative Congress or opposition from the judiciary can be obstacles to successful second terms. But Trump has used executive orders, on the grounds of confronting "national emergencies", to bypass normal checks and balances. As well, favourable rulings by the Supreme Court have edged closer to expanding the boundaries of executive power. But they have not yet supported Trump's claim from his first term that "I have an Article 2, where I have the right to do whatever I want as President". Some supporters say Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize. And he was only half joking when he asked if there is room for one more face on Mount Rushmore. But such monumental honours may only amount to speculation unless Trump's radical approach and redefinition of executive power defy the second-term curse. * Garritt C Van Dyk is a Senior Lecturer in History, University of Waikato. This article was first published by The Conversation .
Scoop
2 days ago
- Scoop
Tamatha Paul Gives Shoplifting The Green Light
Green MP Tamatha Paul is giving shoplifting the green light as she opposes the Government's plan to strengthen penalties, National Party Spokesperson for Justice Paul Goldsmith says. 'The Greens are singing from the same old song sheet, making excuses for anyone who attacks or steals from hard working New Zealanders.' Yesterday Ms Paul said, 'if people don't have enough money to buy food, then they're going to look towards shoplifting things.' 'That seems to be okay with her and the Green Party. Does Labour agree?' Mr Goldsmith says. 'Kiwis need to remember that Labour and the Greens joined forces to vote against tougher sentences for violent criminals, reinstating Three Strikes, banning gang patches and giving Police the power to conduct warrantless searches on gang members. We can only assume this week will be the status quo. 'This Government is making significant progress on restoring law and order. Violent crime is down and Kiwis can feel safer in their homes and communities. A Labour-Greens government would put all of that at risk.'
NZ Herald
4 days ago
- NZ Herald
Gaza rescuers say Israeli forces kill 17, including children
Gaza's civil defence agency said Israeli airstrikes and gunfire killed at least 17 people including three children in the war-stricken Palestinian territory on Sunday. Civil defence spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP that 16 people died in airstrikes at five locations around the Gaza Strip, and another from Israeli fire near
