Why Vatican Mediation in the Ukraine Conflict Remains Unlikely

Euronews

24-05-2025

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said 'the prospect of peace talks being held at the Vatican is unrealistic' on Friday, according to Russian news agency TASS.
Lavrov added that it would be 'inappropriate for Orthodox countries like Ukraine and Russia to resolve issues concerning the roots of the conflict in a Catholic forum.'
One of those 'roots,' claims Lavrov, is what he described as the Ukrainian government's efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
Lavrov referred to steps taken last summer by Ukraine to ban the Moscow-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church, whilst promoting the newer Ukraine-linked Orthodox Church of Ukraine, as the country's national Orthodox Church.
Moscow continues to recognize Patriarch Kirill of Moscow as the sole legitimate Orthodox religious authority for both Ukraine and Russia. The legitimacy of the Kyiv Patriarchate remains a contentious issue that divides not only Eastern Slavic Orthodoxy but the broader Orthodox Christian world.
Religious identity lies at the heart of Vladimir Putin's "Russkiy Mir" (Russian World) ideology—a worldview that underpins his geopolitical ambitions. This adds a powerful religious dimension to the political and military conflict in Ukraine.
Despite strong support for the Vatican's peace overtures from leaders such as US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, there remains widespread skepticism—within both the Vatican and Western capitals—about Russia's genuine commitment to a ceasefire.
Bishop Hlib Lonchyna, a Ukrainian Greek-Catholic prelate, expressed doubts about Moscow's intentions.
'Pope Leo XIV has no influence over Russia. They don't recognize our Church at all," he said. "On the contrary—they want to destroy it, just as they do in the occupied territories where Greek-Catholic churches are being demolished."
Greek-Catholics, part of the Eastern Catholic Churches, observe the Byzantine rite and maintain communion with Rome. After World War II, Stalin's regime outlawed the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, transferring its properties to the Moscow Patriarchate—a move many historians have linked to the Church's close alignment with Soviet authorities.
Pope Leo XIV had hoped to make Vatican-led mediation in global conflicts a defining mission of his pontificate. But now, his initial optimism may have to bow to the harsh realities of global politics—what his predecessor, Pope Francis, once called 'a world war fought in pieces.'
Western governments welcomed what they saw as a renewed Vatican alignment with Ukrainian interests. In his inaugural mass, Pope Leo XIV declared that 'tormented Ukraine now awaits negotiations for a just and lasting peace.'
Cardinal Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga told Italian newspaper La Stampa that Vatican mediation under the pope remains possible: 'It is very difficult, yes, but everything is possible with Pope Leo—he enjoys the trust of global leaders.'
However, he acknowledged that Russia remains wary of distancing itself from the Vatican. 'No nation, however powerful, can afford to act alone,' he said.
Pasquale Ferrara, Director General for Political Affairs at Italy's Foreign Ministry and a professor at LUISS University in Rome, noted that Moscow's mistrust of Vatican mediation predated Pope Leo.
'This skepticism existed even under Pope Francis and is rooted in the long-standing coolness between the Russian Orthodox and Catholic Churches,' Ferrara said.
That tension has deep historical roots, stretching back to the Great Schism of 1054. Catholic-Orthodox rivalry has contributed to numerous conflicts and power struggles over the centuries.
For many Orthodox Christians, the Pope is not recognized as a legitimate religious authority. While peace-making often appears political, religion has once again emerged as a major geopolitical factor.
For the Kremlin, Pope Leo XIV's efforts may be seen as an extension of the Catholic Church's Western legacy.
'I don't think Putin sees the Vatican as having the necessary neutrality,' said Ferrara. 'But in diplomacy, what matters more than neutrality is fairness.'
Ultimately, successful mediation depends less on the identity of the mediator and more on the parties' genuine willingness to seek peace. So far, Ferrara observed, 'Russia has not shown the kinds of signals that would indicate a real desire to negotiate.'
The Vatican has long sought to play a role in resolving international conflicts. The Community of Sant'Egidio, a Catholic organization close to the Vatican's Secretariat of State, helped mediate the Algerian civil war in the 1990s.
Earlier popes also tried—often unsuccessfully—to prevent global conflicts. Benedict XV denounced World War I as a 'useless slaughter,' while Pius XI urged resistance to Fascism, Nazism, and Bolshevism in the lead-up to World War II.
At the Yalta Conference, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin famously dismissed the Pope's authority with the remark: 'How many divisions does the Pope have?' Decades later, Pope John Paul II played a key role in the fall of Eastern European communism—arguably answering Stalin's rhetorical question.
Ferrara cautioned against underestimating the Vatican's potential: 'We should not be too skeptical about the constructive role religion can play in building a new international order.'
As Bishop Lonchyna concluded: 'Even in the darkest hours, the Church must sow the seeds of peace. When the harvest will come—that depends on God, and on the will of men.'