Two wars, no winners: A year later, inside Israel's battles on the Lebanon and Iran fronts

LBCI

3 days ago

Report by Wissam Nasrallah, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian
The roar of Israeli fighter jets and the blast of Iranian ballistic missiles have fallen silent, marking the end of a 12-day war.
That conflict followed the 66-day war between Hezbollah and Israel, which may not be over. So what did the two wars yield, and what consequences did each leave behind?
Let's start with the morning of June 13.
Israel launched what it called 'Operation Rising Lion,' targeting senior military commanders and striking sensitive military facilities. Its stated objective was to dismantle Iran's nuclear infrastructure, but its broader aim was to destabilize—and ultimately topple—the Iranian regime.
But the operation faltered. Iran held its ground and retaliated by striking Tel Aviv, setting off a trail of destruction from northern to southern Israel.
In Lebanon, Israel conducted a series of strikes. The most notable was the pager explosion operation; the most consequential was the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
The attacks took a toll on the group, which retaliated—but not at a scale that matched Israel's assault.
That's the military picture. As for the ceasefire, it began with a message from U.S. President Donald Trump to Iran: unconditional surrender. The turning point came when Washington entered the conflict, striking Iran's nuclear sites.
During the war, Trump floated the possibility of regime change in Tehran—only to later state he was against it.
In the end, Trump declared the war over with a few words posted on social media. The ceasefire agreement remains ambiguous, and all parties continue to claim victory.
In Lebanon, the ceasefire was formalized through a signed agreement—partially made public, with significant portions kept undisclosed. A monitoring committee was formed, yet Israel continues to occupy territory, carry out airstrikes, and conduct targeted assassinations.
The bottom line: Tehran was not defeated, and Tel Aviv did not win. Attention has shifted to negotiations, where Washington—the broker of the ceasefire—will face an Iranian regime newly armed with the credibility of demonstrated military capability.
As for the war in Lebanon, Hezbollah is left with few gains. Both the group and the Lebanese state remain barred from leading reconstruction, while Trump has permitted China to resume importing Iranian oil.
The outcomes of the Lebanon war and the Iran conflict will likely differ. The most important variable: the results of both wars—and, perhaps more crucially, that Trump is back in the White House.