Faisal Islam: Inflation complicates next month's rate decision
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The Independent
11 minutes ago
- The Independent
Federal Reserve's Waller says central bank should cut rates at next meeting
A top Federal Reserve official said late Thursday that the central bank should cut its key interest rate later this month, carving out a different view than that of Chair Jerome Powell, who has been harshly criticized by the White House for delaying rate cuts. Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's governing board, said in a speech in New York City that the economy is showing signs of weakening, with consumer spending slowing and job gains cooling. The Fed should reduce borrowing costs to shore up spending and growth before the job market weakens further, Waller said. 'The economy is still growing, but its momentum has slowed significantly,' he said, adding that the slowdown threatens the Fed's goal of maximum employment. At the same time, President Donald Trump 's sweeping tariffs are likely to only lift inflation temporarily and aren't a reason to postpone rate cuts, Waller said. 'Tariffs have boosted, and will continue to boost, inflation a bit above the (Fed's) 2% objective this year,' Waller said, but policymakers should 'look through tariff effects and focus on underlying inflation,' which he said is nearing the 2% goal. Waller has been mentioned as a potential replacement for Powell when the current chair's term expires in May 2026, or perhaps earlier if Trump takes the unprecedented step of firing Powell. Trump has threatened to fire Powell this year but on Wednesday said it was 'highly unlikely' he would take such a step. For his part, Powell has said the Fed wants to see the impact of the duties on prices and the economy before making any moves. Waller, a Trump appointee, has previously said that he would support a rate cut in July. Michelle Bowman, also a Trump appointee, has also spoken in favor of a cut. Minutes to the Fed's June 17-18 meeting said that only 'a couple' of the 19 members of the central bank's interest-rate setting committee supported a cut in July. Other participants — the minutes didn't say how many — said that the Fed should keep rates unchanged this year, since inflation remains above 2%. Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year ago, the fastest pace in four months. Other potential replacements for Powell have also publicly expressed support for cutting rates soon, including Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Fed's board who stepped down in 2011. Warsh, currently a fellow at the Hoover Institution, said on Fox News' 'Sunday Morning Futures' earlier this week that he supported rate cuts. 'The president's right to be frustrated with Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve,' Warsh said.
Daily Mail
11 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
EXCLUSIVE Britain's billionaire exodus: All the super-rich business tycoons who have fled Labour's tax raids...and why more could soon follow
The Aston Villa co-owner and three of London 's wealthiest property developers are among the billionaires who have already left Britain in the wake of Labour's tax raids. Research by New World Wealth suggests the UK has lost 18 dollar billionaires over the last two years - more than any other country in the world. Those who are known to have left include Nassef Sawiris, the Egyptian co-owner of Aston Villa FC, who has shifted his tax residency to Italy - according to legal documents revealed in April. Brothers Ian and Richard Livingstone, who oversee a £9billion property empire in the UK and abroad, an online casino and plush Monte Carlo hotel, have quit Britain for Monaco. Another billionaire developer, Malawi-born Asif Aziz - owner of the former London Trocadero on Piccadilly Circus - moved his tax residency to Abu Dhabi at the end of last year. Rachel Reeves ' October budget has been blamed for driving the exodus by abolishing the non-dom tax regime and imposing inheritance tax on the worldwide assets of foreigners who have lived in Britain for more than 10 years. And a leading tax advisor today warned that the flood of billionaires out of Britain could increase even further if Labour decides to impose a wealth tax - a move Sir Keir Starmer has notably refused to rule out. David Lesperance, the founder of tax and immigration advisory Lesperance and Partners, said 50 per cent of his 'ultra-high net worth' clients had already departed the UK since Labour came to power and predicted half that number again would flee the imposition of a wealth tax. 'A large group moved because of the inheritance tax changes, but some decided they would be able to mitigate the hit because they were young, could get insurance to cover it, or could take advantage of some of the tax solutions available,' he told MailOnline. 'But if you bring in a wealth tax, that mitigation is neutralised, so it's another force that will drive those who haven't already left to leave. 'The general public might not mind the idea of wealthy people leaving, but the reality is that in a progressive tax system you are extremely dependent on a tiny number of taxpayers, so if they leave it will have a huge impact on tax revenue. 'And at the same time these golden geese feel their being driven out of the UK, other countries are promising to offer them a better tax deal. 'If a wealth tax comes in, ultra-high net worth people will say ''London is nice, but not yet nice'' and head to all the countries who are actively welcoming them.' Mr Lesperance pointed out that wealth taxes - which are levied on the total value of an individuals' assets - are 'very difficult to administer', with many nations who have brought in the levies subsequently repealing them. Given this, he believes Ms Reeves is more likely to introduce an exit tax - which takes the form of a one-off fee on people moving their tax residency to another country. 'When you have a wealth tax, people will give the lowest figure possible for the value of their assets, and if HMRC wants to challenge it, that will take time and money,' he said. 'I don't see a wealth tax because it won't be good for the goal of maximising revenue. 'I would say it's more likely the Autumn Statement could include an exit tax. But if that happens, advisors will be telling their clients to leave before it comes in.' Several billionaires have been open about their reasons for leaving, with Nassef Sawiris blaming Labour's inheritance tax clampdown and a 'decade of incompetence' under the Tories. Britain's ninth richest billionaire, John Fredriksen, declared last month that Britain had 'gone to hell' as he explained his reasons for moving his shipping firm from London to the United Arab Emirates. The Norwegian had previously run his private firm, Seatankers Management, from an office in Sloane Square. But he told newspaper E24 that the UK had become a worse place to do business. 'It's starting to remind me more and more of Norway,' he said. 'Britain has gone to hell, like Norway. 'People should get up and work even more, and go to the office instead of having a home office.' In May, The Sunday Times Rich List estimated that the UK had 156 billionaires, down from 165 the year before and the largest annual drop since the list began in 1989. Putting an exact figure on the number of billionaires leaving the country is complicated by the difficulty of calculating an individuals' wealth and working out their tax residency if they do not make this information public. Labour donor Laskhmi Mittal was reported in March as telling friends that he would probably leave the UK. The Indian-born businessman is also the owner of property on London's exclusive Kensington Palace Gardens, which has been dubbed 'billionaire's row'. He bought what was then the world's most expensive home for £67million in 2004. It comes as new figures showed the number of non-dom taxpayers in the UK dipped last year prior to the Government clamping down on the tax status, official figures show. There were about 73,700 people claiming non-domiciled tax status in the year ending in April last year, according to estimates from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC). This was 400 fewer than the 2022-23 tax year, or a dip of about 0.5 per cent. The number of non-doms, according to self-assessment tax returns, stood 3,900 below that in the tax year ending 2020. It indicates a slowdown in the number of people claiming the tax status following a post-pandemic resurgence. Non-domiciled means UK residents whose permanent home, or their 'domicile' for tax purposes, is outside the UK. The regime meant that so-called non-doms paid tax in the UK only on income generated in the UK - meaning any income earned overseas was exempt from British taxation. However, the Labour Government abolished the non-dom tax status in April following backlash that wealthy residents could enjoy the benefits of living in the UK without paying as much tax. Previous chancellor Jeremy Hunt estimated that scrapping the regime would raise about £2.7billion for the Treasury by 2028-29. HMRC's data published on Thursday showed that some £9billion was raised from non-doms paying income tax, capital gains tax and national insurance last year. This was a £107million increase on the prior year, despite the dip in the number of individuals. Even so, campaigners insist HRMC will suffer in the long-term if some of Britain's biggest taxpayers are driven out. Leslie MacLeod-Miller runs Foreign Investors for Britain (FIFB), a lobby group set up after the July general election. He told MailOnline: 'Wealth is already shifting to countries like Italy, Dubai, and Switzerland. 'The government needs to show bold leadership and implement a bold policy change before Britain's 'golden geese' take their 'golden eggs' abroad to other countries that are actively courting them. 'The Office for Budget Responsibility warned this July that continued reliance on this small population of top taxpayers represents a growing fiscal risk. 'The government needs to act now, talk of a wealth tax will only increase the exodus of this high income – and high investing, employing and growth-creating group. Fiscal sense rather than ideology needs to prevail.'
Reuters
11 minutes ago
- Reuters
Japan's core inflation slows in June but stays above BOJ target
TOKYO, July 18 (Reuters) - Japan's core inflation slowed in June due to temporary cuts in utility bills but stayed above the central bank's 2% target, highlighting lingering price pressures that will keep alive market expectations for further interest rate rises. The data will be among factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinise at its next policy meeting on July 30-31, when the board is expected to revise up its inflation forecast in a quarterly review of its projections. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 3.3% in June from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, matching a median market forecast. The rise was smaller than the 3.7% increase in May due largely to the resumption of fuel subsidies aimed at helping households weather the pain from higher living costs. A separate index that strips away both fresh food and fuel costs - closely watched by the BOJ as a measure of domestic demand-driven prices - rose 3.4% in June from a year earlier after increasing 3.3% in May. The BOJ exited a decade-long, radical stimulus programme last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January on the view that Japan was on the cusp of sustainably hitting its 2% inflation target. While the central bank has signalled its readiness to raise rates further, the economic impact of higher U.S. tariffs forced it to cut its growth forecasts in May and complicated decisions around the timing of the next rate increase. Japan's economy shrank in the first quarter as rising living costs hurt consumption. Exports fell in May for the first time in eight months, stoking recession fears. A slight majority of economists in a June Reuters poll expected the BOJ to forgo another rate hike this year.
