Will Iran continue negotiations without a response to U.S. airstrike?
U.S. Political Analyst Eric Ham says with the airstrike on nuclear sites, Trump is trying to get Iran back to the negotiation table.
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Winnipeg Free Press
32 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
How Ukraine can cope with the US pause on crucial battlefield weapons
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The decision by the United States to pause some weapons shipments to Ukraine has come at a tough time for Kyiv: Russia's bigger army is making a concerted push on parts of the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line and is intensifying long-range drone and missile attacks that increasingly hammer civilians in Ukrainian cities. Washington has been Ukraine's biggest military backer since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor on Feb. 24, 2022. But the Trump administration has been disengaging from the war, and no end to the fighting is in sight, despite recent direct peace talks. Here's a look at Ukraine's options following the U.S. pause of some arms deliveries: Specific weapons needed from U.S. Amid recurring concerns in Kyiv about how much military support its allies can supply and how quickly, Ukraine has raced to build up its domestic defense industry. The country's output has gradually grown, especially in the production of more and increasingly sophisticated drones, but Ukraine needs to speedily scale up production. Crucially, some high-tech U.S. weapons are irreplaceable. They include Patriot air defense missiles, which are needed to fend off Russia's frequent ballistic missile attacks, but which cost $4 million each. That vital system is included in the pause, and many cities in Ukraine, including Kyiv, could become increasingly vulnerable. A senior Ukrainian official said Thursday that Patriot systems are 'critically necessary' for Ukraine, but U.S.-made HIMARS precision-guided missiles, also paused, are in less urgent need as other countries produce similar assets. 'Other countries that have these (Patriot) systems can only transfer them with U.S. approval. The real question now is how far the United States is willing to go in its reluctance to support Ukraine,' he told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity of the subject. The official said that Patriot missiles exist in sufficient numbers globally, and he said that accessing them requires political resolve. 'There are enough missiles out there,' he said, without providing evidence. He also stated that Ukraine has already scaled up its domestic production of 155 mm artillery shells, which were once critically short, and is now capable of producing more than is currently contracted. 'Supplies from abroad have also become more available than before,' he said. Backup plan Amid at times fraught relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been enlisting greater European help for his country's arms manufacturing plans. European countries don't have the production levels, military stockpiles or the technology to pick up all the slack left by the U.S. pause, but Zelenskyy is recruiting their help for ambitious joint investment projects. Draft legislation to help Ukrainian defense manufacturers scale up and modernize production, including building new facilities at home and abroad, will be put to a vote in the Ukrainian parliament later this month, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced this week. Zelenskyy said last month that major investments will go to the production of drones and artillery shells. 'The volume of support this year is the largest since the start of the full-scale war,' he said about commitments from foreign countries. Under Trump, there have been no new announcements of U.S. military or weapons aid to Ukraine. Between March and April, the United States allocated no new help at all, according to Germany's Kiel Institute, which tracks such support. For the first time since June 2022, four months after Russia's full-scale invasion, European countries have surpassed the U.S. in total military aid, totaling 72 billion euros ($85 billion) compared with 65 billion euros ($77 billion) from the U.S., the institute said last month. Big battlefield problem Without Patriot missiles, as well as the AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missile and shorter-range Stinger missiles that are also included in the pause, Ukrainian cities likely will take a bashing as more Russian missiles pierce air defenses. On the front line, Ukrainian troops haven't recently voiced complaints about ammunition shortages, as they have in the past. They have always said that during the war, they have never had as much ammunition to as their disposal as Russian forces. The army faces a different problem: It's desperately short-handed. It's turning to drones to compensate for its manpower shortage, and analysts say the front isn't about to collapse. Asked about the timing of the U.S. pause, the Ukrainian official emphasized the need for stable, reliable supply lines. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. 'This is war — and in war, steady deliveries are always crucial,' he said. ___ Barry Hatton reported from Lisbon, Portugal. ___ Follow AP's coverage of the war in Ukraine at
Winnipeg Free Press
33 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Supreme Court will take up a new case about which school sports teams transgender students can join
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court agreed Thursday to hear a case over state restrictions on which school sports teams transgender students can join. Just two weeks after upholding a ban on gender-affirming care for transgender youth, the justices said they will review lower court rulings in favor of transgender athletes in Idaho and West Virginia. The nationwide battle over the participation of transgender girls on girls sports teams has played out at both the state and federal levels as Republicans have leveraged the issue as a fight for athletic fairness for women and girls. More than two dozen states have enacted laws barring transgender women and girls from participating in certain sports competitions. Some policies have been blocked in court. At the federal level, the Trump administration has filed lawsuits and launched investigations over state and school policies that have allowed transgender athletes to compete freely. This week, the University of Pennsylvania modified a trio of school records set by transgender swimmer Lia Thomas and said it would apologize to female athletes 'disadvantaged' by her participation on the women's swimming team, part of a resolution of a federal civil rights case. The case will be argued in the fall.
National Observer
34 minutes ago
- National Observer
New supply management law can't save the system from Trump, experts say
A new law meant to protect supply management might not be enough to shield the system in trade talks with a Trump administration bent on eliminating it, trade experts say. "It's certainly more difficult to strike a deal with the United States now with the passage of this bill that basically forces Canada to negotiate with one hand tied behind its back," said William Pellerin, a trade lawyer and partner at the firm McMillan LLP. "Now that we've removed the digital service tax, dairy and supply management is probably the number 1 trade irritant that we have with the United States. That remains very much unresolved." When Trump briefly paused trade talks with Canada on June 27 over the digital services tax — shortly before Ottawa capitulated by dropping the tax — he zeroed in on Canada's system of supply management. In a social media post, Trump called Canada a "very difficult country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products." Canada can charge about 250 per cent tariffs on US dairy imports over a set quota established by the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement. The International Dairy Foods Association, which represents the US dairy industry, said in March the US has never come close to reaching those quotas, though the association also said that's because of other barriers Canada has erected. When Bill C-202 passed through Parliament last month, Bloc Québécois MPs hailed it as a clear win protecting Quebec farmers from American trade demands. The Bloc's bill, which received royal assent on June 26, prevents the foreign affairs minister from making commitments in trade negotiations to either increase the tariff rate quota or reduce tariffs for imports over a set threshold. On its face, that rule would prevent Canadian trade negotiators from offering to drop the import barriers that shield dairy and egg producers in Canada from price shocks. But while the law appears to rule out using supply management as a bargaining chip in trade talks with the US, it doesn't completely constrain the government. Pellerin said that if Prime Minister Mark Carney is seeking a way around C-202, he might start by looking into conducting the trade talks personally, instead of leaving them to Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand. Carney dismissed the need for the new law during the recent election but vowed to keep supply management off the table in negotiations with the US. Pellerin said the government could also address the trade irritant by expanding the number of players who can access dairy quotas beyond "processors." "(C-202) doesn't expressly talk about changing or modifying who would be able to access the quota," he said. Expanding access to quota, he said, would likely "lead to companies like grocery stores being able to import US cheeses, and that would probably please the United States to a significant degree." Carleton University associate professor Philippe Lagassé, an expert on Parliament and the Crown, said the new law doesn't extend past something called the "royal prerogative" — the ability of the executive branch of government to carry out certain actions in, for example, the conduct of foreign affairs. That suggests the government isn't constrained by the law, he said. "I have doubts that the royal prerogative has been displaced by the law. There is no specific language binding the Crown and it would appear to run contrary to the wider intent of the (law that it modifies)," he said by email. "That said, if the government believes that the law is binding, then it effectively is. As defenders of the bill insisted, it gives the government leverage in negotiation by giving the impression that Parliament has bound it on this issue." He said a trade treaty requires enabling legislation, so a new bill could remove the supply management constraints. "The bill adds an extra step and some constraints, but doesn't prevent supply management from eventually being removed or weakened," he said. Trade lawyer Mark Warner, principal at MAAW Law, said Canada could simply dispense with the law through Parliament if it decides it needs to make concessions to, for example, preserve the auto industry. "The argument for me that the government of Canada sits down with another country, particularly the United States, and says we can't negotiate that because Parliament has passed a bill — I have to tell you, I've never met an American trade official or lawyer who would take that seriously," Warner said. "My sense of this is it would just go through Parliament, unless you think other opposition parties would bring down the government over it." While supply management has long been a target for US trade negotiators, the idea of killing it has been a non-starter in Canadian politics for at least as long. Warner said any attempt to do away with it would be swiftly met with litigation, Charter challenges and provinces stepping up to fill a federal void. "The real cost of that sort of thing is political, so if you try to take it away, people are screaming and they're blocking the highways and they are calling you names and the Bloc is blocking anything through Parliament — you pay a cost that way," he said. But a compromise on supply management might not be that far-fetched. "The system itself won't be dismantled. I don't think that's anywhere near happening in the coming years and even decades," said Pellerin. "But I think that there are changes that could be made, particularly through the trade agreements, including by way of kind of further quotas. Further reduction in the tariffs for outside quota amounts and also in terms of who can actually bring in product." The United States trade representative raised specific concerns about supply management in the spring, citing quota rules established under the CUSMA trade pact that are not being applied as the US expected and ongoing frustration with the pricing of certain types of milk products. Former Canadian diplomat Louise Blais said that if Canada were to 'respect the spirit' of CUSMA as the Americans understand it, the problem might actually solve itself. 'We jump to the conclusion that it's dismantlement or nothing else, but in fact there's a middle ground," she said.
