Senate leaving Russia sanctions power fully in Trump's hands

The Hill

3 days ago

Republican senators are getting ready to leave Washington without advancing a major sanctions bill against Russia, giving President Trump sole discretion over whether to follow through on his threats against Russian President Vladimir Putin if he refuses to halt his war against Ukraine.
Trump has given an Aug. 8 deadline for Putin to stop fighting or risk tariffs on countries that import Russian oil. As a preview, he announced 25 percent tariffs on India, a major importer of Russian energy. That's far below the 500 percent secondary tariff power Congress laid out in draft legislation.
While Senate Ukraine hawks wanted to see their sanctions bill pass before the monthlong break, they ultimately left the decision entirely in Trump's hands, at least for the summer.
'I think he's going to be very careful about what he does,' Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said when asked by The Hill if Trump can be trusted to impose costs on Putin.
'But I think he is clearly disappointed in Putin and I think he is now coming around to recognizing that many of us were right.'
Democrats have expressed skepticism Trump will punish Putin, even as the president has shown increasing frustration with the Russian leader's refusal to accept a ceasefire.
Trump said Friday he ordered nuclear submarines to the region in response to threats of nuclear weapons use from Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, current deputy chair of the security council and frequent online provocateur.
'Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances,' Trump posted on his social media site Truth Social.
Trump told reporters Thursday that his special envoy for peace missions, Steve Witkoff, is expected to travel to Russia following a visit to Israel on Friday.
Trump described Russia's ongoing attacks against Ukraine as 'disgusting.'
'We have about eight days. … We're going to put sanctions,' he said.
Even as Trump has shortened the deadline for Russia to get serious about peace talks, the president is hedging on the impact U.S. financial penalties will have on Putin's country.
'I don't know that sanctions bother him. You know? They know about sanctions. I know better than anybody about sanctions, and tariffs and everything else. I don't know if that has any effect. But we're going to do it.'
While the U.S. has steadily ramped up sanctions on Russia throughout the war, the Senate bill would have marked a major economic escalation, seeking to isolate Moscow from trading partners that have kept its wartime economy afloat.
'Maintaining pressure on Russia economically, and going after its oil revenues in particular, remain crucial to containing and limiting Russia's current and future military and foreign policy options,' experts with the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in a report late last month.
Steep tariffs on Russia's trading partners would also risk shocks to the global energy market and further strain on U.S. relations with major economies such as India, China and Brazil.
Sen. James Risch (R-Idaho), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said deciding which sanctions are imposed — if Russia passes Trump's deadline — 'are a work in progress,' speaking with The Hill on Friday.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), coauthor of the Russia sanctions bill with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), said he would view it as a win if Trump imposed even a fifth of what the Senate was proposing.
'We propose in our bill 500 percent. If it's 250 percent, I could live with it. Even if it's 100 percent, possibly. But you ought to impose bone-crushing sanctions that will stop them from fueling Russia's war machine,' Blumenthal said.
The Connecticut senator said even as he holds out hope for Trump to give Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) the green light to bring the sanctions bill to the floor, the bill has already moved U.S. policy.
'It has given credibility and momentum to the idea of sanctions so that now, even President Trump, who was seemingly Putin's best buddy, is giving him deadlines to stop the war or face sanctions,' he said.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, pointed to Trump's 25 percent tariffs on India as further evidence of this impact. Indian state oil refiners have already moved to pause imports of Russian oil, with the tariff set to go into effect Aug. 7.
'Clearly, India was paying attention to that. I think it's positive progress that the president is looking at ways in which he can put more pressure on Russia,' she said.
Graham said Trump has 'adopted the theory of the case' — going after countries that purchase Russian oil and don't help Ukraine.
'He can do it through executive action, or with the bill,' he said. 'I think the bill, as you say, gives him leverage, and we're in good discussions, so stay tuned.'
But some Republican senators pointed to a missed opportunity in adjourning before a vote on the Graham-Blumenthal bill.
'I don't think there are enough sanctions we can place on Russia. I think we should keep hammering them and make sure Ukraine's armed,' said Sen. Pete Ricketts (Neb.), the No. 2 Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Rounds told The Hill he believed the time is now to put the sanctions bill on the floor.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation, said he wanted a Senate vote on the sanctions package so the House could be ready to take it up when they come back in September.
'I think having that tool in your tool chest, ready to go, would be a good thing and keep the pressure on Russia,' he said.
'I think it gives [Trump] more leverage. You can always hold it ready to go, send it over to the House if needed and then to the president's desk. I think that's not a bad strategy.'
Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), also a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, agreed.
'I think that's why it's important for us to have this teed up and ready — it gives [Trump] an option, and the more options he has the better,' he said.
Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told The Hill on Wednesday that Thune was 'absolutely aware' of his desire to vote on the Russia sanctions bill before the August recess.
'I certainly think it would be an excellent thing to do.'
Thune's office told The Hill on Friday it had no scheduling announcements related to the Graham-Blumenthal bill.