Earthquakes' secondary waves are the most destructive. India is developing a system to predict them
The plan is to deploy this advanced detection network, a first for the country, over the next decade, M. Ravichandran, secretary of ministry of earth sciences, told Mint.
Although accurately predicting the exact time, location and magnitude of earthquakes remains a scientific challenge, the ministry is investing in infrastructure to improve early-warning systems.
'There is currently no scientific method to predict earthquakes in advance. However, we can monitor seismic activity in real time to quickly determine where and why an earthquake has occurred," said Ravichandran.
He explained that when an earthquake strikes, the primary wave (p-wave), hits first, followed by the more destructive S-wave. There is typically a brief time gap between these waves. 'Our objective is to detect the occurrence of the p-wave and use that short window to anticipate the arrival of the damaging S-wave."
He said Japan is already capable of predicting S-waves a few seconds before. 'The technology is known science, but there should be infrastructure in place to make the system operational," he added.
The ministry is setting up infrastructure for the system. For example, it needs to install accelerometers, which measure ground motion during an earthquake, and GPS devices at many locations.
'If everything is in place, I can say maybe in a decade's time, we can go for an early-earthquake warning," he added.
India's earthquake vulnerability
India is highly vulnerable to earthquakes due to its unique geological and tectonic setting, particularly its location at the collision boundary of the Indian and Eurasian plates. This constant tectonic activity makes several parts of the country susceptible to moderate to severe earthquakes.
The government has identified that 59% of India is vulnerable to earthquakes, and the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) has classified the country into four seismic zones based on earthquake risk. Zone V, including regions like the Himalayas, is the most active, while Zone II is the least affected.
Over the years, India has experienced several devastating earthquakes. The 1905 Kangra and 2001 Bhuj earthquakes are among the most catastrophic in India's history.
The 8.0-magnitude Kangra earthquake claimed 19,800 lives. The 7.9-level Bhuj earthquake followed, leading to 12,932 deaths and devastating 890 villages. More recently, on 17 February 2025, a 4.0-magnitude earthquake struck Delhi. India recorded 159 earthquakes from November 2024 to February 2025, raising concerns about the country's future preparedness.
On 22 July, a magnitude 3.2 tremor with its epicentre in Faridabad, Haryana, was felt in parts of Delhi, but no damage or injuries were reported.
'Early-warning systems (EWS), powered by real-time data, resilient building codes and standards, adaptive engineering principles, and AI (artificial intelligence), play a vital role in safeguarding infrastructure and communities," said Amit Prothi, director general of the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). 'They enhance seismic resilience by better equipping assets to withstand shocks, accelerate recovery, and protect lives and livelihoods."
CDRI, a New Delhi-based multilateral organization, was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the 2019 United Nations (UN) Climate Action Summit.
Prothi added that this is why the UN secretary-general António Guterres's 'Early Warning for All' call is important.
On World Meteorological Day, 23 March 2022, Guterres announced that the UN would spearhead new action 'to ensure every person on Earth is protected by early-warning systems within five years".
'Today, one third of the world's people, mainly in least developed countries and small island developing states, are still not covered by early-warning systems. This is unacceptable, particularly with climate impacts sure to get even worse. Early warnings and action save lives," Guterres said.
Once India's system is in place, critical damage to public and private infrastructure can be avoided, said Ravichandran. For example, if a bullet train is going from one place to another, timely information can alert the system, which will stop the bullet train and cut off the transmission line, he said.
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