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Aligning RE with development goals can lift 193 mn from poverty: UNDP Study
The study, conducted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), University of Denver's Pardee Institute and Octopus Energy, was set up to explore how time-bound renewable energy targets, backed by coherent policies and financing mechanisms, could unlock triple wins: cutting emissions, boosting economies and delivering real social benefits.
The report simulated three scenarios to assess outcomes for emissions, economic growth, and social progress.
In a business-as-usual scenario, the global energy system remains dependent on fossil fuels, accounting for over 50 per cent of primary energy by 2060.
This trajectory would push global warming to 2.6C, exacerbating poverty, malnutrition and lack of access to essential services like electricity, safe water and sanitation.
The second scenario considers accelerated renewable energy deployment aligned with the first Global Stocktake's call to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency.
In this future, fossil fuels would make up just 12 per cent of the energy mix by 2060, helping to limit global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius.
But it is the third and most ambitious scenario - where renewables are accelerated alongside investments in health, education, water and food systems - that yields the most transformative outcomes.
In this pathway, universal access to electricity and clean cooking is achieved, 142 million people are saved from malnutrition, and 550 million more people gain access to clean water and sanitation.
This study shows us that a clean energy future is possible - but we must choose to embed renewable ambition into climate plans linked to inclusive development policies, said Cassie Flynn, UNDP's Global Director of Climate Change.
In addition to its social impact, the study estimates the third scenario would generate $8.9 trillion in energy efficiency savings and $11.5 trillion from declining renewable costs, while boosting global GDP by 21 per cent and raising per capita income by $6,000 by 2060.
Octopus Energy founder Greg Jackson highlighted the growth potential that clean energy can unlock.
Renewables can offer the chance to bring electricity to hundreds of millions of people, improving lives and driving growth, he said.
With renewable power capacity reaching 4,448 GW in 2025, accounting for over 90 per cent of new power additions and clean energy investments projected to hit a record $2.2 trillion, the momentum is strong.
Yet, fossil fuels still dominate, comprising over 70 per cent of the global supply.
In 2024 alone, fossil fuels accounted for more than half of the 2.2 per cent rise in energy demand, and energy efficiency growth halved from previous decades.
The imperative now falls to global leaders to embrace these strategies and act, said Jonathan Moyer, Director of the Pardee Institute.
This research shows it is possible to balance global development with environmental protection while managing the inherent trade-offs, Moyer said.
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