Prediction: 1 Stock Will Be Worth More Than Tesla 10 Years From Now
Toyota already generates three times more revenue than Tesla and produces superior cash flow from operations.
At the same time, Toyota trades at just 7.2 times earnings, compared with Tesla's P/E ratio of 183.
If Tesla loses its ultra-premium valuation and gets priced like other automakers, its market cap advantage would evaporate quickly.
10 stocks we like better than Toyota Motor ›
Switch Auto Insurance and Save Today!
Affordable Auto Insurance, Customized for You
The Insurance Savings You Expect
Great Rates and Award-Winning Service
Electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has taken Wall Street by storm in the past six years. Starting from a stock price of $17 and a $46.2 billion market cap in July, 2019, Elon Musk's empire made electric cars cool and expanded into a broader alternative energy business with a side gig in literal rocket science. Today, Tesla has a trillion-dollar market cap and a stock price of $332 per share. Early shareholders enjoyed a 1,830% return so far.
However, Tesla doesn't dominate the newfangled category of electric vehicles anymore. Other carmakers have joined the eco-friendly transportation market, and Tesla's skyrocketing sales growth has fizzled out. At the same time, classic auto giant Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM) is adapting to the revamped car market, applying its decades of engineering know-how and ultraefficient operations to new issues.
Tesla's market value is about five times Toyota's right now. Believe it or not, but I think Toyota will have a larger market footprint than Tesla again -- probably before 2035.
Toyota is already a giant
Here's the thing. Toyota is already larger than Tesla in many ways. The Japanese company boasted $315 billion of global sales in fiscal year 2025, which ended on March 31. Tesla's sales stopped at $95.7 billion in the same period.
And it's not just top-line sales. Toyota's full-year cash from operations were $24.3 billion versus Tesla's $16.8 billion, for example. It's really just the stock that looks small in the context of Tesla's intimidating presence.
Now, you should know that Toyota is more than just a car maker. The company is a proper Japanese Keiretsu, with market-leading operations spanning many industries. The resulting conglomerate includes auto parts suppliers, a banking division that accounted for 8% of Toyota's total sales last year, and more.
Toyota had 585 subsidiaries and 165 joint ventures at the end of fiscal 2025. It's a sophisticated business empire with global scale and innovative ambitions. These days, the company is restructuring itself into a mobility company. The idea is to help people transport themselves, their physical goods, various types of information, and energy, all under the Toyota brand.
Innovative long-term plans
The company is humming on every cylinder right now. Sales have grown in all four of its geographic segments for the last three years. Its vehicles may not be as flashy as a Tesla Cybertruck, but Toyota's products are renowned for their quality and reliability in a wide range of driving conditions.
The company was an early player in hybrid cars, introducing the Prius way back in 1997. Toyota is now building battery and electric vehicle factories around the world, focusing on its largest markets in Japan and North America.
But that's not the only alternative fuel system up Toyota's sleeve. It is also doing heavy research and market development for fuel cell vehicles, aiming to make hydrogen-powered cars a common solution with a full-fledged refueling infrastructure. At this early stage, most of Toyota's fuel cell efforts focus on heavy vehicles, such as trucks and buses. Passenger cars and SUVs should join the party over time.
Toyota will climb out of Wall Street's bargain bin someday
So Toyota is ready and willing to compete in the increasingly electric car industry of the 2020s and beyond. This effort will continue in the long run, cementing Toyota as a world-class designer and manufacturer of eco-friendly transportation tools -- or mobility solutions, as the company likes to think of its four new target segments.
Meanwhile, Toyota's stock trades at low valuation ratios such as 7.2 times earnings and 0.7 times sales. Tesla shares, on the other hand, are still market darlings with a P/E ratio of 183 and P/S at 11.2. Again, Tesla is a much smaller business than Toyota and its formerly impressive sales growth has slowed down dramatically in recent quarters. If that trend continues, Wall Street will probably cancel Tesla's sky-high ratios and start treating the company like any other carmaker.
If that level playing field ever develops, Tesla's stock will look small next to Toyota's -- just like Toyota's financial figures already outclass Tesla's today. None of this will happen overnight, of course. But unless these companies make drastic changes to their business models, I expect Toyota's stock to be worth more than Tesla's by 2035. And Toyota should be a serious supplier of gas-free vehicles by then.
Should you buy stock in Toyota Motor right now?
Before you buy stock in Toyota Motor, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Toyota Motor wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $636,774!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,064,942!*
Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,040% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 182% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025
Anders Bylund has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: 1 Stock Will Be Worth More Than Tesla 10 Years From Now was originally published by The Motley Fool
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Joby Aviation Stock Soars to an All-Time High: My Prediction for What Comes Next
Key Points Joby Aviation stock is soaring on optimism for its electric air taxi network. The company is aiming to ramp up manufacturing and finish its FAA certification. The stock trades at an expensive price versus any reasonable expectations for future revenue. 10 stocks we like better than Joby Aviation › Nobody enjoys sitting in traffic. And yet, the average American will sit in over two weeks of traffic each year. One company believes it has paved a way to help alleviate the traffic pressure in cities around the globe: Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY). It is manufacturing and testing electric air taxis, which can go point-to-point over cities more quietly than traditional helicopters, saving people time and frustration. Joby's air taxis are not operational yet, but the stock recently burst through to an all-time high of $17.50 a share on investor enthusiasm for its manufacturing progress and partnerships with large transportation players. It now has a market cap of $14.8 billion even though it generates zero dollars in revenue. Here's my prediction for what comes next with Joby Aviation stock. Betting big on air taxis Utilizing electric motor technology and innovations in aerodynamics, Joby Aviation has created a vertical takeoff vehicle that is quiet enough to leave from residential neighborhoods. It is manned by a pilot, can fit four riders, and has a top speed of 200 miles per hour. The company is planning to set up point-to-point networks in major cities such as New York, where customers will be able to hop from Manhattan directly to the airport, shaving off time that would have been spent sitting in traffic. The company is not officially operating its network yet, but it's working with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the final stages of testing its aircraft. Multiple pilots have flown the Joby vehicle already, with its manufacturing facilities producing its fifth aircraft for pilots last quarter. Management recently announced an expansion of its factory in California, with plans to eventually produce 24 air taxis annually from this location. Multiple transportation companies have seen the promise in Joby Aviation. Toyota Motors has invested a total of $894 million in the company and is working directly with the company on manufacturing processes. Delta Air Lines is an investor, while Uber Technologies is a partner that will eventually add Joby flights to its ride-sharing application. Joby needs to get a lot of customer demand in order to get a return on its air taxi spending, which will require full operating schedules and high ticket prices. This is possible if its partners such as Uber and Delta drive customers to the upcoming service. The company is not just looking to expand in New York. It is working to add air taxis to Los Angeles, Dubai, and even Japan and the United Kingdom. Most major cities in the world have traffic issues and could see some (especially wealthier) citizens utilize this upcoming air taxi network. Aggressive spending and cash burn There is a lot of promise with Joby's air taxis, but the growth is all theoretical today. Joby does not generate any revenue, is still in the FAA certification process, and has manufactured only a few air taxis to date. Still, it is aggressively burning money on research, manufacturing, and overhead costs as it works to build up its vertically integrated factory network in the United States. In the first quarter of 2025, it spent $134 million on research and development. Over the last 12 months, free cash flow was negative $489 million. The company does have $813 million in cash and a $500 million commitment from Toyota, but this only gives it two to three years of cash burn at its current rate before it will need to raise more funds. My prediction for what comes next with Joby Aviation stock I like the idea of air taxi networks. As long as they can be operated safely, it is a path forward to help alleviate traffic on major highways in metro areas, and it looks like something people will pay up for in order to save time on the way to the airport or other societal hubs. My problem comes from Joby Aviation's market cap of $14.8 billion, making the stock wildly overvalued for a pre-revenue start-up. At its current manufacturing run-rate of 24 air taxis a year that could grow in the years to come, Joby Aviation may have 200 vehicles in operation by 2030. Assuming 20 flights per vehicle per day at $500 each split among the four passengers, that is $730 million in annual revenue for Joby Aviation. It is currently spending close to $500 million a year before generating any sales. There will be variable costs when its taxi network starts operating, along with more money spent to build each vehicle. It is unlikely that Joby Aviation will generate a profit by 2030 even if it can scale up its air taxi routes and charge an average of $500 per flight (which is more than the average round-trip airline ticket for comparable routes). Air taxis are an interesting idea, but that doesn't mean Joby Aviation is a buy with the stock trading at a market cap of $14.8 billion. I predict that pain is ahead for Joby Aviation shareholders for the rest of this decade, even if the company remains on track with its air taxi network buildout. Should you buy stock in Joby Aviation right now? Before you buy stock in Joby Aviation, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Joby Aviation wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $636,628!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,063,471!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,041% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 183% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025 Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Joby Aviation Stock Soars to an All-Time High: My Prediction for What Comes Next was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Rivian vs. Lucid: Which EV Stock Is Winning in 2025?
Key Points Rivian and Lucid both disappointed early investors. Both companies face supply chain issues and intense competition. But one of these EV companies has clearer near-term advantages. 10 stocks we like better than Rivian Automotive › Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) and Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) were both hot electric vehicle (EV) stocks. Rivian went public with an IPO price of $78 on Nov. 10, 2021, and its shares more than doubled to a record closing price of $172.01 just a week later. Lucid went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on July 26, 2021. Its shares started trading at $25.24, and more than doubled to a record closing price of $55.52 four months later. Both companies initially attracted a stampede of bulls with their ambitious growth targets, and the buying frenzy in emotion-driven meme stocks amplified their gains. But today, Rivian and Lucid trade at about $13 and $3, respectively. Both stocks fizzled out as they missed their own goals and racked up steep losses. Rising rates also popped their bubbly valuations. But when interest rates declined in 2024, Rivian and Lucid didn't bounce back even as investors pivoted back toward more speculative stocks. That sentiment is still chilly: Rivian's stock has only risen 5% since the beginning of 2025, while Lucid's stock dipped 3%. Should contrarian investors consider buying either of these EV stocks right now? Why did Rivian and Lucid disappoint the market? Rivian sells three EVs: its R1T pickup, its R1S full-size SUV, and an electric delivery van (EDV) for its top investor, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and other companies. Before it went public, it claimed it could produce 50,000 vehicles in 2022. But in reality, it only produced 24,337 vehicles that year as it grappled with supply chain disruptions. Lucid sells two vehicles: its Air sedan and its new Gravity SUV. In its pre-merger presentation, it claimed it could deliver 20,000 vehicles in 2022. Unfortunately, it only delivered 4,369 vehicles in 2022 as it also struggled with supply chain constraints and production issues. At their record highs, Rivian's market cap hit $153.3 billion, or 92 times its 2022 revenue; while Lucid's market cap reached $91.4 billion, which was 150 times its 2022 revenue. Those sky-high valuations set both stocks up for steep declines when they missed their own rosy forecasts. What happened over the following years? In 2023, Rivian more than doubled its production to 57,232 vehicles as it overcame its supply chain issues. But in 2024, its production dipped to 49,476 vehicles as rising rates chilled the EV market, it faced tougher competition, and it temporarily shut down its main Illinois plant to upgrade its production capabilities. In 2025, it only expects to deliver 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles as it deals with higher tariffs on its raw materials and batteries, ongoing supply chain challenges, and another temporary shutdown to prepare for the launch of its smaller R2 SUV in 2026. Rivian is dealing with a lot of growing pains, but it's still supported by Amazon, Porsche (OTC: POAHY), Saudi Arabian conglomerate Abdul Latif Jameel, and other big investors. It ended its latest quarter with $8.5 billion in liquidity, and it expects the rollout of its smaller R2 SUV to significantly boost its sales and profits as it reaches a broader range of customers. Lucid's deliveries rose to 6,001 vehicles in 2023 and 10,241 vehicles in 2024, but those numbers were dismal compared to its original estimates. Lucid faced many of the same macro and competitive challenges as Rivian, and its CEO, Peter Rawlinson -- who attracted a lot of attention for his previous stint as Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) chief vehicle engineer -- stepped down this February. Its board still hasn't appointed a permanent CEO yet. Rivian's founder and CEO, RJ Scaringe, remains in charge of his company. Lucid claims it can more than double its production to 20,000 vehicles this year as it ramps up its production of the Gravity SUV, but it doesn't have a great track record of meeting its own expectations. Yet Lucid is still firmly backed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign Public Investment Fund (PIF), which owns nearly two-thirds of its shares, and it ended its latest quarter with about $5.7 billion in liquidity, which it claims can carry it through its launch of the Gravity SUV. Which stock has more upside potential? From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Rivian's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% as Lucid's revenue rises at a CAGR of 85%. Based on those estimates, which we should take with a grain of salt, Rivian and Lucid trade at 3.2 times and 6.9 times this year's sales, respectively. Neither company is expected to come close to breaking even, but Rivian's gross margins turned positive over the past two quarters as economies of scale kicked in. Lucid's gross margins are still negative. Rivian's higher production rates, healthier gross margins, and more stable leadership make it a stronger investment than Lucid right now -- even if its production wanes ahead of the R2's launch. As for Lucid, I'm not sure it can successfully ramp up its production of the Gravity and meet Wall Street's high expectations. If it falls short of that goal, its valuations will decline and its stock will drop even further. Should you buy stock in Rivian Automotive right now? Before you buy stock in Rivian Automotive, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Rivian Automotive wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $636,628!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,063,471!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,041% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 183% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025 Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Porsche Automobil Se. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rivian vs. Lucid: Which EV Stock Is Winning in 2025? was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
NBC Sports
22 minutes ago
- NBC Sports
Results, points after Brickyard 400 as Bubba Wallace earns first NASCAR crown jewel win
With his first crown jewel victory in the NASCAR Cup Series, Bubba Wallace locked into the 2025 playoffs by winning the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Surviving two overtime restarts after the race went past its scheduled distance because of a red flag for rain, Wallace beat Kyle Larson by 0.222 seconds for his third career victory. It was his first win since Kansas Speedway in September 2022, snapping a 100-race winless streak. The 23XI Racing driver's first victory at Indy came in his fifth start on the 2.5-mile oval. His previous best Brickyard finish was a third in September 2019. MORE: Click here for Brickyard 400 results Wallace led three times for 23 laps. Denny Hamlin finished third, followed by Ryan Preece and Brad Keselowski. With the win, Wallace moved off the provisional cut line for the playoffs. Chris Buescher now leads Preece by 42 points for the final spot. Chase Elliott, who finished 13th, held onto his lead in the regular-season standings by four points over Hendrick Motorsports teammate Wiliam Byron, who was 16th. Here's the finishing order at the Brickyard 400: 1. Bubba Wallace, No. 23 Toyota 2. Kyle Larson, No. 5 Chevrolet 3. Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Toyota 4. Ryan Preece, No. 60 Ford 5. Brad Keselowski, No. 6 Ford 6. Todd Gilliland, No. 34 Ford 7. Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Ford 8. Christopher Bell, No. 20 Toyota 9. Alex Bowman, No. 48 Chevrolet 10. Carson Hocevar, No. 77 Chevrolet 11. Justin Haley, No. 7 Chevrolet 12. John Hunter Nemechek, No. 42 Toyota 13. Chase Elliott, No. 9 Chevrolet 14. Chris Buescher, No. 17 Ford 15. Austin Cindric, No. 2 Ford 16. William Byron, No. 24 Chevrolet 17. Katherine Legge, No. 78 Chevrolet 18. Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Toyota 19. Shane Van Gisbergen, No. 88 Chevrolet 20. Cole Custer, No. 41 Ford 21. Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Toyota 22. Josh Berry, No. 21 Ford 23. AJ Allmendinger, No. 16 Chevrolet 24. Jesse Love, No. 62 Chevrolet 25. Kyle Busch, No. 8 Chevrolet 26. Riley Herbst, No. 35 Toyota 27. Daniel Suarez, No. 99 Chevrolet 28. Ty Dillon, No. 10 Chevrolet 29. Tyler Reddick, No. 45 Toyota 30. Michael McDowell, No. 71 Chevrolet 31. Zane Smith, No. 38 Ford 32. Joey Logano, No. 22 Ford 33. Noah Gragson, No. 4 Ford 34. Josh Bilicki, No. 66 Ford 35. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., No. 47 Chevrolet 36. Erik Jones, No. 43 Toyota 37. Cody Ware, No. 51 Ford 38. Austin Dillon, No. 3 Chevrolet 39. Ross Chastain, No. 1 Chevrolet
