MP Materials Stock Is Up More Than 300% This Year. Can It Keep Climbing?
Enthusiasm for reshoring American manufacturers' supply chains has pushed shares of MP Materials through the roof this year.
The U.S. Department of Defense will invest heavily in MP Materials' new rare earth metal processing facility.
MP Materials stock is trading at an extremely high valuation, even though it could report a revenue reduction soon.
10 stocks we like better than MP Materials ›
MP Materials (NYSE: MP) stock has been soaring. Shares of the U.S.-based rare earth materials and magnets company rose a whopping 308% from the end of 2024 through Aug. 1, 2025.
As is usually the case when a stock produces dramatic gains, investors want to know whether it can continue climbing. The U.S. government's push to end reliance on foreign producers of rare earth metals is an obvious tailwind, but a lot of expectations are already baked into the stock's soaring price.
Let's weigh the opportunities in front of this stock against some of the challenges it faces to see whether it can be expected to continue moving in the right direction.
Why MP Materials stock is way up this year
Manufacturers of lasers, semiconductors, and smartphones increasingly rely on a group of 17 metals known as rare-earth elements. Over the past decade, China has been the dominant supplier, accounting for over 70% of U.S. rare earth imports in seven of the past 10 years.
On July 10, MP Materials announced a partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to accelerate production of magnets made from rare earth metals. The deal includes a multibillion-dollar package of investments from the DoD to build a second domestic magnet manufacturing facility.
The new facility, to be named the "10X Facility," doesn't have a location yet. With plenty of resources to make it happen, though, MP Materials expects the 10X Facility to begin commissioning in 2028. Once online, management thinks it can raise total manufacturing capacity to 10,000 tons annually. To put this figure into perspective, total rare earth metal imports to the U.S. reached 13,600 tons last year.
The U.S. government isn't the only enormous entity eager to diversify its rare earth magnet sources. On July 15, MP Materials announced a $500 million deal with Apple to provide magnets produced by its facility in Fort Worth, Texas. Shipments to Apple are expected to begin in 2027.
Reasons to remain cautious
China does not produce a majority of the world's rare earth metals because it's blessed with ore deposits that don't exist elsewhere. It's the leading producer because it invested heavily in big processing facilities that America lacks. MP Materials' mine in Mountain Pass, California, produces heaps of rare earth oxide, but the company processes very little of it into metal that can be used to make magnets.
MP Materials' deal with Apple doesn't involve processing ore dug up at its Mountain Pass mine. Under the agreement, the feedstock MP Materials will use to manufacture magnets for Apple will come from recycled post-industrial and end-of-life magnets. It's better than nothing, but this deal won't do much to improve the company's ore processing capability.
Unfortunately, MP Materials didn't get time to build up its ore processing capacity before President Donald Trump's tariffs hammered demand for the ore its Mountain Pass facility produces. The company ceased shipments of rare earth concentrate to China in April.
Sales of rare earth concentrate to Shenghe Resources, a Chinese processor, were responsible for about 70% of MP Materials' total revenue in 2024 and about 50% of revenue in the first quarter of 2025.
MP Materials wasn't exactly on firm financial footing before it stopped shipping ore to China this April. During the 12 months ended this March, its operation lost $166 million.
One for the watchlist
It's hard to overstate just how high expectations are for MP Materials' underlying business. Price-to-sales ratios for basic materials companies typically live in low-single-digit territory. Shares of MP Materials have been trading for over 48 times trailing sales. If shipments to China don't resume soon, roughly half of total revenue could disappear until the 10X Facility is up and running.
The DoD has agreed to a price floor of $110 per kilogram of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) processed at the still non-existent 10X Facility. Even if MP Materials can get that facility built in a couple of years and begin producing 10,000 tons of NdPr at it annually, annual revenue from the DoD would work out to roughly $1.1 billion. This isn't enough to justify MP Materials' present market cap of about $10.4 billion.
If the 10X facility were already processing 10,000 tons of rare earth metal annually and selling it to the government, I'd call this stock a buy. Unfortunately, MP Materials still doesn't even know where it will build the 10X Facility. With heaps of execution risk and a trade-war-driven revenue reduction on the way, it's probably best to keep this stock on a watchlist.
Should you buy stock in MP Materials right now?
Before you buy stock in MP Materials, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and MP Materials wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $624,823!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,064,820!*
Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,019% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 178% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of July 29, 2025
Cory Renauer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple. The Motley Fool recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
MP Materials Stock Is Up More Than 300% This Year. Can It Keep Climbing? was originally published by The Motley Fool
擷取數據時發生錯誤
登入存取你的投資組合
擷取數據時發生錯誤
擷取數據時發生錯誤
擷取數據時發生錯誤
擷取數據時發生錯誤
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Why the market is shrugging off Trump's firing of the BLS chief
Trump fired the head of the BLS on Friday, but so far, markets have looked past the shock decision. Sources say there are a variety of other sources investors can use to assess the employment picture. Strong earnings and higher rate-cut odds are powering stocks higher on Monday. August kicked off with a shocker, with Donald Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a less-than-rosy July employment report. The move sparked prognostications about untrustworthy government data going forward and comparisons to China, which some believe is uninvestable due to issues with data quality. Then why is the market unfazed as trading kicks off on Monday? Stocks rallied to start the week, with the Dow up almost 500 points at midday and the Nasdaq Composite jumping as much as 2%. For now, markets are focused on other things, like the higher odds of a September rate cut after the employment picture suddenly soured. "Obviously, the firing was unconventional. That's pretty much everything with this administration compared to previous administrations, but at this point, there is so much private data that the market can look at other sources," Paul Hickey, cofounder of Bespoke Investment Group, told Business Insider. Apart from the BLS statistics that investors already parse, there's a patchwork of private and public data, including ADP data, hiring and firing data from a range of consulting firms, and labor market sentiment indicators from sources like the Conference Board. "There are private sources of data, and if they are moving in the opposite direction from the government data, then it becomes an indicator that something is off with the statistics,"Aleksandar Tomic, Associate Dean, Strategy, Innovation, & Technology at Boston College, told Business Insider. Trump said Erika McEntarfer's firing was justified and that the July data had been manipulated to make the administration look bad. He did not offer evidence for this claim, though White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said the revisions in the data are "hard evidence." The July revisions were substantial, showing that the US added nearly 260,000 fewer jobs in May and June than had been initially reported. Trump and Republicans have also criticized earlier revisions, including last year's that showed over 800,000 fewer jobs added in the 12 months leading up to March 2024. The irony of Trump's anger over the July jobs numbers is that the weak report has pushed up the odds of the September rate cut to nearly 90%, getting the president closer to seeing the Fed loosen monetary policy as he's been demanding all year. But for investors, things like the robust GDP report for the second quarter and solid corporate earnings, particularly among mega-cap tech giants, are boosting the outlook for the market even as Trump's move stirs some uncertainty. For Sergio Altomare, a former senior enterprise architect at the Fed, the next big question is who will replace McEntarfer at the helm of the BLS. "I think the ultimate impact is going to take time to sort itself out, but I think really the immediate thing is, who gets appointed? What is their background? What does the data show? Is it dramatically different from what we're seeing?" Altomare said that it will be difficult to properly assess the impact of Trump's decision on financial markets until these questions have clear answers. Luckily for markets, some answers could come soon. Trump has said that in the coming days, he'll nominate a new BLS chief, as well as a replacement for Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler, who resigned on Friday. Both positions require confirmation by the Senate. It is also worth noting that some agree with the president's decision. For his part, investing legend Ray Dalio said on Monday that he, too, would probably fire the BLS chief. In a post on X, he described the agency's process for making key economic estimates as "obsolete and error-prone," with no plan to fix it. "The revisions brought the numbers toward private estimates that were in fact much better," Dalio said. Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About Agilon (AGL) Q2 Earnings
Agilon Health (AGL) reported $1.39 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 5.9%. EPS of -$0.25 for the same period compares to -$0.07 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of -4.98% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.47 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.11, the EPS surprise was -127.27%. While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health. Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance. Here is how Agilon performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: Avg. Medicare Advantage Members: 498,000 compared to the 493,100 average estimate based on two analysts. Revenues- Other operating: $2.94 million versus $3.16 million estimated by five analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -7.4% change. Revenues- Medical services: $1.39 billion compared to the $1.46 billion average estimate based on five analysts. The reported number represents a change of -5.9% year over year. View all Key Company Metrics for Agilon here>>> Shares of Agilon have returned -30% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Dollar weakens as rate cut odds rise, tariff uncertainties linger
By Ankur Banerjee and Gregor Stuart Hunter SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar wavered on Tuesday as the rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed on sentiment, while investors assessed the broader economic impact of U.S. tariffs unleashed last week. The dollar remained under pressure following Friday's U.S. jobs report that showed cracks in the labour market, prompting traders to swiftly price in rate cuts next month. U.S. President Donald Trump's firing of a top statistics official and the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler also exacerbated market unease, leading to a sharp dive in the dollar on Friday. The U.S. currency found its footing on Monday but was weaker in early trading on Tuesday. The euro last bought $1.1579 while sterling stood at $1.3298. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was at 98.688 after touching a one-week low earlier in the session. Traders are now pricing in a 94.4% chance of the Fed cutting rates in its next meeting in September, compared to 63% a week earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a 50 basis point move possible if the unemployment rate climbs further in the next report. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Monday that given mounting evidence that the U.S. jobs market is softening and no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation, the time is nearing for rate cuts. "I was willing to wait another cycle, but I can't wait forever," Daly said. Meanwhile, the focus remains on tariff uncertainties after the latest duties imposed on scores of countries last week by Trump, stoked worries about the health of the global economy. The Japanese yen firmed slightly to 146.95 per dollar after minutes of its June policy meeting showed a few Bank of Japan board members said the central bank would consider resuming interest rate increases if trade frictions de-escalate. The Swiss franc was steady at 0.8081 per dollar after dropping 0.5% in the previous session as Switzerland geared up to make a "more attractive offer" in trade talks with Washington to avert a 39% U.S. import tariff on Swiss goods that threatens to hammer its export-driven economy. The long-term impact of the tariffs though remains uncertain, with traders bracing for volatility. "This is going to be like the pandemic, we all expect to see the transitory impact on supply chains to happen very quickly," said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney. "It'll probably take six months to a year to see exactly where we land and who's going to be winners and losers from all this." In other currencies, the Australian dollar was 0.11% higher at $0.64736, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.11% to $0.5914. "We're still of a view that the big dollar is heading down," Catril said, referring to the U.S. dollar. "While global growth means pro-growth currencies like Asian currencies and the AUD should struggle, we've other structural dynamics in the USD, where policies are dollar-negative."
