Rocket Lab soars over 8% — is this the next SpaceX? Neutron rocket and NASA deals fuel investor buzz
Neutron rocket
, plus ongoing contracts with NASA and U.S. defense agencies, many investors are now asking:
Could Rocket Lab be the next SpaceX?
How is Rocket Lab stock performing today?
As of now, Rocket Lab is trading around
$39
, having surged over
8%
in the latest session. This rally follows its major announcement of a deal with Bollinger Shipyards to build a 400-foot ocean landing platform for Neutron—expected to debut in the second half of 2025.
RKLB has seen a phenomenal +554% gain over the last 12 months, easily beating the S&P 500's 11%, the aerospace sector's 27.1%, and even red-hot peers like Intuitive Machines (+150.8%) and Boeing (+26.7%).
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The
Zacks Aerospace-Defense-Equipment industry
: +46.2%
The
Zacks Aerospace sector
: +27.1%
The
S&P 500 index
: +11%
The stock has also outperformed peers like
Boeing (BA)
(+26.7%) and
Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
(+150.8%).
Clearly, investors are betting big on Rocket Lab's future.
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Historical Performance
Massive growth
: RKLB is up
554% over the past year
,
705% over 3 years
, and
236% over 5 years
, compared to the S&P 500's much slower growth.
Quarterly surge
: The stock climbed from ~$14.70 in early April 2025 to nearly $39 in early July — a
164% gain
over Q2 alone.
Volatility noted
: Shares have swung between ~$4 and ~$33 over the past year, marking extremely volatile trading behavior.
What does the past say about RKLB's growth?
Over the past three years, Rocket Lab stock has returned over
700%
, driven by:
68 successful Electron launches
, with strong reliability
Long-term NASA and U.S. government contracts
Expansion into space systems beyond launches (satellites, spacecraft components)
Upcoming Neutron rocket aimed at the medium-lift market—directly challenging SpaceX's Falcon 9 segment
These achievements have helped build confidence that Rocket Lab is not just a one-trick launch provider.
What's the deal with the Neutron rocket?
The real excitement stems from the upcoming Neutron rocket, a medium-lift, reusable launch vehicle designed to compete with SpaceX's Falcon 9. Last week, Rocket Lab signed a contract with Bollinger Shipyards to build a 400-foot ocean landing platform named "Return On Investment" for Neutron's recovery missions.
The platform will be equipped with Rocket Lab's landing technologies and is slated for delivery in early 2026, just months after Neutron's expected H2 2025 debut.
This move clearly signals Rocket Lab's push to expand beyond small satellite launches and compete in the heavier launch segment—traditionally dominated by SpaceX.
What's driving Rocket Lab's growth in 2025?
A few key tailwinds are boosting optimism:
Frequent Electron launches
: 10 successful missions in 2025 so far, showing consistent performance.
Neutron development on track
: The upcoming reusable rocket is backed by new infrastructure and tech investment.
Government partnerships
: Ongoing work with
NASA
, the
DoD
, and other agencies is a strong credibility booster.
Expanding commercial demand
: Rising global interest in satellite and space security solutions is fueling demand for launch providers.
Rocket Lab appears well-positioned to meet that demand with both volume and scale.
What are analysts predicting for RKLB?
While enthusiasm around Neutron is high, Wall Street remains cautious:
Source
Avg. Price Target
Upside/Downside from $39
MarketBeat
$30.40
–22%
TipRanks
$32.00
–18%
StockAnalysis
$30.75
–21%
TradingView
$33.64
–13%
Citi (Bullish)
$50.00
+28%
Most analysts suggest a
pullback
from current levels unless future revenue beats expectations. However,
Citi's bullish $50 target
shows there's still plenty of room for upside if Neutron's rollout goes smoothly.
What do short-term models and charts say?
Quantitative forecasts and technical indicators are showing momentum:
CoinCodex
projects RKLB could hit
$46–47
by September–October 2025
StockInvest.us
flags continued bullishness, with RKLB trading above all key moving averages
Over the last 2 weeks alone, shares are up over
8%
So while analysts are cautious, the technical setup supports further upside—especially if more positive news breaks on Neutron or government contracts.
What are the risks to watch?
Even with all the upside, RKLB isn't without its red flags:
High cash burn
: Heavy R&D and infrastructure spending means it's still unprofitable
Valuation premium
: RKLB trades at a
24.36x forward P/S ratio
, compared to 9.88x for the industry average
Debt levels
: Its
debt-to-capital ratio of 49.25%
is also higher than peers, raising risk during economic slowdowns
Execution risk
: Delays or failures in the Neutron rollout could hit confidence hard
Should you buy RKLB stock right now?
If you're a growth-focused investor who can stomach volatility, Rocket Lab has serious long-term potential. The company is successfully scaling from small satellite launches into bigger markets, and the buzz around Neutron shows the market believes in its vision.
But for more conservative investors, the current price might look stretched. Most analysts see
downside
from here unless Neutron launches flawlessly and revenue growth accelerates.
Rocket Lab is still far from matching SpaceX in size or scale—but it's one of the few public companies with a credible shot at challenging it. With strong momentum, expanding capabilities, and bullish investor sentiment, RKLB might just be the breakout space stock to watch in 2025.
Just be prepared for a bumpy ride.
FAQs:
What is driving Rocket Lab stock up in 2025?
Strong investor buzz around its Neutron rocket, NASA deals, and soaring 550%+ stock growth.
Is Rocket Lab the next SpaceX?
It's making bold moves like reusable rockets, but still has a long way to go.
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