Depleted Hamas focuses on desperate new aim: capturing an Israeli soldier
Last week, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sergeant was killed in Khan Younis in southern Gaza in an attempted abduction. Hamas militants also tried to take away the remains of 25-year-old Abraham Azulay but abandoned the effort when attacked by other Israeli forces.
The capture of a soldier or their remains would offer significant new leverage for Hamas as indirect negotiations continue over a ceasefire deal, and have a major impact on public opinion in Israel.
'This attempt failed. [But there is] no doubt Hamas will increase its attempts to take new hostages, including bodies of dead soldiers and civilians,' said Michael Milstein, the head of the Palestinian studies forum at Tel Aviv University.
Hamas is still holding 50 of the 250 hostages seized during its surprise attack on 7 October 2023, when militants killed 1,200, mostly civilians, and triggered the conflict in Gaza. More than half are thought to be dead, and the release of 28 is being discussed in the ceasefire talks in Qatar.
'Hamas may release captives to have a ceasefire, at least for now, but is also attempting to capture more … so is signalling that any agreement is not going to be a permanent end to the overall conflict,' said Abdeljawad Hamayel, a Ramallah-based political analyst.
Hamas has proved to be adept at exploiting the propaganda value of successful attacks, and its media channels broadcast a video of the attempted abduction last week. Other images showed militants attacking Israeli armoured vehicles and bulldozers.
One Qatar-based Palestinian analyst familiar with Hamas's strategic discussions said: 'It's not just about gaining a card to play in negotiations but is a key part of the psychological battle. Hamas aim to boost their own fighters and demoralise both Israeli soldiers in Gaza and civilians in Israel.'
Israeli officials have repeatedly described how Hamas's military strength has been degraded, and few analysts doubt the heavy casualties suffered in Gaza by the military wing of the organisation. The IDF claims to have killed up to 23,000 militants, out of about 30,000 at the beginning of the war, without providing evidence. Hamas's leadership losses are clearer. Most senior and middle-ranking commanders active in 2023 are now dead.
The Qatar-based analyst said Hamas might only be deploying a 'couple of hundred' of fighters in Gaza but that this was sufficient for its strategic purposes.
'Hamas only have a few cells here, but they are very careful and precise with their resources,' they said.
Military experts say Hamas has made a 'military transformation' during the 21-month conflict, from a quasi-conventional force to one that is suited to guerrilla warfare, and that its new strategy is better adapted to the devastation in Gaza, where the Israeli offensive has killed 57,000, mostly civilians, and reduced vast swaths to ruins.
An ambush last week killed five soldiers and injured nine in what is left of Beit Hanoun, once a thriving town in the north of Gaza that has been reduced to smashed masonry and twisted metal by successive Israeli offensives. Some of Hamas's extensive tunnel network is still intact, too, offering a means of escaping Israel's air power and surveillance capabilities.
Guy Aviad, a former IDF military historian and expert on the group, said: 'It's a very complicated battlefield for the IDF. Hamas are taking advantage of all the rubble. They are experts in guerrilla warfare and have been fighting Israel for 20 years.'
Channels remain open between military leaders in Gaza and the political leadership of Hamas in Qatar and Istanbul, experts said. Only two significant political leaders – including the then leader Ismail Haniyeh – have been killed since the war began. The group's network of envoys, officials, clandestine operatives and sympathisers across much of the Islamic world and elsewhere also remains largely intact and continues to raise funds for the organisation.
Hamas ruled Gaza from 2007 and its officials still nominally run ministries, municipal authorities and much else, though its grip on the territory is slipping as other actors including criminal gangs, coalitions of community leaders and new militia backed by Israel contest its remaining authority. Aid workers in the territory say Hamas officials and security personnel are less present than they were even six months ago.
Casualties continue to mount in the territory. Hundreds of civilians have been killed since the latest round of ceasefire talks began on Sunday. Ten IDF soldiers have been killed this month and 20 in July.
'We are now seeing a form of attritional warfare which is placing some limits on Israel's power and is also having some effect on public opinion across the world,' said Hamayel.
Milstein said Hamas was eager for a ceasefire but not at any cost. 'Here in Israel, we have had an experiment with the idea that more and more pressure on Hamas means they will [eventually] give up. Well, how much more pressure can you imagine?,' he said. 'We have killed their leaders. We have destroyed Gaza. But we have not changed the basic attitudes and demands of Hamas.'
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