How will Canadian consumers be affected by Trump's de minimis changes?
The order signed on Wednesday means imports valued at or under US$800 soon will no longer be exempt from tariffs and instead be subject to the blanket fees the U.S. has imposed on trading partners.
'The de minimis rule was a golden ticket for smaller Canadian exporters,' said Markus Giesler, a marketing professor at the Schulich School of Business. 'Right now, without this, they may be forced to pay high prices, reroute logistics or walk away from the world's biggest market.'
For many small Canadian businesses selling lower-value goods, such as arts and craft businesses and Etsy sellers, the suspension makes the U.S. market unviable, said David Nagy, founder of consulting firm eCommerce Canada.
The paperwork and brokerage fees may not make sense for lower-value transactions, he said, adding that a $55 order could now require an additional 45 minutes spent on documentation, with no added financial benefit.
Trump to suspend duty-free exemption for low-value shipments
Chris Jarvis, chief operating officer at Ecom Logistics, said Canadian small e-commerce businesses he works with rely heavily on U.S. sales, and their need to maintain U.S. customers may lead them to leave the Canadian market entirely.
'Any small Canadian merchant who got traction in the Canadian market … ends up seeing 90 per cent of their sales happening in America,' he said.
To maintain that customer base, some businesses will need to move inventory into the U.S. and effectively run a U.S.-based business.
Options are even more limited for businesses importing some of their goods or materials from China or other tariffed countries, leaving them exposed to additional tariffs with less of a chance at becoming compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement.
Many up-and-coming American and Canadian creators selling niche products via Instagram, TikTok or Etsy, for example, may elect not to come to Canada or stay here.
They're thinking, 'Why would I want to open up another inventory position in the country of Canada, when 90 per cent of my volume is going to come from the US anyway,' said Mr. Jarvis.
How U.S. duties targeted at China are disrupting Canadian businesses
If they pull away, this will limit product availability in Canada and consumers will have fewer opportunities to access unique or small-batch goods they once could easily order.
On the other hand, U.S. restrictions may push larger companies such as Temu and Shein to 'aggressively look at other markets,' including Canada, said Jonathan Calof, a professor of international business and strategy at the University of Ottawa's Telfer School of Management.
Data provided to The Globe and Mail by marketing-intelligence firm Sensor Tower shows Temu's Canadian ad spend jumped 61 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025 following Mr. Trump's tariff threats, while Shein's rose 34 per cent.
Whether doubling down on markets outside of the U.S. would mean lower prices for Canadian consumers depends on how companies react.
'They're going to try to gain market share, and they're going to try to stay competitive … some will lower prices, some will try better quality, some will diversify,' said Prof. Calof.
But when it comes to small e-commerce businesses, they don't have much runway to sustain long-term price cuts, he said. The bigger risk is that their business may disappear altogether.
In addition to reduced selection, the de minimis suspension on U.S. imports could mean that Canadians ordering from the U.S. will face slightly longer waiting times because of increased border scrutiny more broadly, said Matthew Melvin, a spokesperson for Canadian shipping company Chit Chats.
Shoppers trying to return something that they bought from the U.S. could also be hit with added hurdles, he said.
While the effect to Canadians' wallets from the de minimis change may not be immediate, the economic ripple effects will ultimately be significant, said Steve Bozicevic, CEO of A&A Customs Brokers.
'If Americans start buying less, then you'll just have less jobs, and you'll have more inflation,' he said. 'It's more the macroeconomic impact.'
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