Germany and the balance of power in Europe

Arab News

3 days ago

https://arab.news/4ed9k
The 2025 NATO Summit, which took place in The Hague last week, brought together representatives of all 32 member nations of the alliance. Top of the agenda was an agreement to increase national security expenditure, with a target for each country to spend 5 percent of gross domestic product on defense by 2035.
The shift comes as Germany embarks on its biggest military rearmament since the Second World War, signaling its intent to assume a more assertive role within NATO and across Europe. Given that a highly militarized Germany twice brought the world to war, this latest iteration has drawn great interest.
It also follows repeated criticism from US President Donald Trump, who has long accused European allies of relying too heavily for their security on Washington, which he argues bears a disproportionate share of NATO's military burden.
In 2024, the US spent $935 billion on defense, more than double the combined total of all other NATO members. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this imbalance became clear, as Europe was exposed as being critically reliant on the US for its security.
No country reflects the shift toward increased military investment more clearly than Germany. Under the leadership of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, it has embraced rearmament with a boldness unseen since the end of the Second World War.
For much of the second half of the 20th century, Germany was characterized by its rejection of military might as an instrument of state power. Under the auspices of the European project, a reunified Germany sought to establish its role through multilateral diplomacy, economic stability and the rule of law.
Its military, the Bundeswehr, remained fragmented and poorly equipped, with a defense budget that rarely exceeded 1.1 percent of GDP. Strict controls were placed on arms exports and strategic leadership was largely left to the country's NATO allies, led by the US. This was the established trend in postwar Germany. Even the faintest hint of rearmament was met with public resistance, shaped by memories of the nation's painful past.
The Bundeswehr, established in 1955, was intentionally built with no projection of offensive power. For decades, as Germany became Europe's economic powerhouse, its security policies remained largely reactive and rooted within NATO's strategic architecture.
However, those days now seem to be firmly behind it, with Berlin emerging as a prominent defense hub for Europe. This year, the Merz government passed a defense budget worth 2.4 percent of GDP, the highest level of military expenditure in Germany's postwar history, and announced long-term aspirations to raise it to 5 percent.
At the transatlantic level, Germany's evolving strategy reflects growing uncertainty about Washington's role in NATO.
Zaid M. Belbagi
The goal is to ramp up annual defense spending from €95 billion ($111 billion) in 2025 to €162 billion by 2029. To enable this shift, Berlin has introduced legal changes allowing it to bypass its constitutional debt brake, a departure from a long-standing tradition of fiscal restraint.
The transformation goes beyond budgets and legislation. Merz has pledged to build the Bundeswehr into 'the strongest conventional army in Europe' by 2031. The plan includes an expansion of its active forces from 182,000 troops to 203,000 by 2031, with a long-term target of 240,000.
The military's role is expanding beyond Germany's borders as well. In May, Berlin announced that an armored brigade would be permanently stationed in Lithuania, the first long-term deployment of a German force beyond its own borders since the Second World War. This shift aims to support NATO's eastern flank amid growing concerns about Russian aggression.
Modernization is proceeding at a rapid pace. Under a new rearmament directive issued by Chief of Defense Gen. Carsten Breuer, the Bundeswehr is acquiring advanced weapons and equipment, including air defense and precision-strike capabilities, space assets, advanced electronic warfare tools and munitions reserves. The procurement program includes Patriot missile systems, Eurofighter and F-35 fighter jets, Leopard 2 tanks, PzH 2000 howitzers and sophisticated military drones.
This shift by Germany marks a pivotal moment for NATO and for Europe: the emergence of a post-American mindset in defense policy, with Berlin increasingly taking on responsibilities long championed by the US.
At the transatlantic level, Germany's evolving strategy also reflects growing uncertainty about Washington's role in NATO, especially amid the decisions of Trump and his administration during his second term. The result is a more assertive and autonomous German military posture, one that is reshaping the security architecture of Europe.
For the Middle East and North Africa, the rearmament of Germany and the revitalization of its defense industry present significant opportunities for deeper cooperation. The country has long been a key supplier of advanced machinery, equipment, motor vehicles and military aircraft components across the region.
Amid the ongoing tensions between Iran, Israel and the US, Middle Eastern nations might increasingly look to Berlin as a vital partner, one whose expanding defense capabilities and industrial expertise could help shape their own security and military strategies for years to come.