The Guardian view on Syria's hopes and fears: stability can't be built without the people

The Guardian

6 days ago

After five decades of Assad family rule, and almost 14 years of civil war, Syrians knew that establishing a brighter future was likely to be as fraught a struggle as removing their dictator had been. Many greeted the new president – Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaida fighter and leader of the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – with excitement, while minorities viewed him with a cautious optimism. Now sectarian violence threatens frail but genuine hopes of a better tomorrow.
In March, hundreds of mostly Alawite civilians were massacred along the coast, after an ambush of security forces by supporters of the ousted dictator, Bashar al-Assad, a member of the sect. Then, this month, a dispute between a Bedouin tribesman and a member of the Druze minority in the southern region of Sweida swiftly escalated into horrific sectarian mass violence, involving Syrian government forces.
Armed clashes, bombardments, summary executions and then Israeli airstrikes killed hundreds of people, including civilians. What is perhaps most alarming is the speed with which incidents can spiral, and the inability or unwillingness of the new government to control what is less an army than a ragbag of militias and warlords.
Mr Sharaa has been adept at winning over his international audience, but much less so at addressing his domestic one. He has made gestures towards inclusivity, but substance has been much less evident. His leadership must straddle a fundamental contradiction: he needs to keep an extremist sectarian base on side – with Islamic State and others trying to lure members away – while reassuring the rest of a fragmented and deeply scarred country that he can protect them and meet at least their basic needs.
The Assads weaponised intercommunal divisions to bolster their rule. Many people are seeking redress or retaliation for abuses committed under the old regime. The ubiquity of weapons after years of war and the desire of militia leaders to defend their interests adds to the danger, as does competition for scant economic resources.
Israel's intervention this month – purportedly in defence of the Druze, a significant minority in Israel – has deepened the crisis. It has occupied additional territory and has clearly been working to reduce Syrian military capabilities and to undermine the leadership. Striking the defence ministry in Damascus didn't just send a message 'regarding the events in Sweida' but about its broader intentions. The US, which recognises that Syria's disintegration is not in its interests, has sought to rein Israel in and must continue doing so.
Amid this bleak outlook, there are still notes of hope, especially in persistent grassroots efforts to tackle intercommunal violence through dialogue and to pursue transitional justice. These two priorities are interconnected: without ending impunity for the events of recent months and past decades, Syria cannot hope to establish the trust on which effective discussions depend.
The government has paid lip service to transitional justice but has yet to name those it believes accountable for the slaughter in March – despite evidence on social media as well as from witnesses. It says there will be 'no tolerance' of abuses by anyone in Sweida. Terrified minorities will want to see proof of that assertion. Improved accountability, and commitment to building relations between communities, are not indulgences for happier and more prosperous times, but the foundation stones required for a successful nation. A Syria that is not inclusive and protective cannot hope to survive and thrive.
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