Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei reappears in public at mourning ceremony after staying off radar amid war with Israel
Khamenei finally stepped back into view on July 5 at a mourning ceremony in Tehran. Looking thin but calm, he sat quietly while crowds marked Ashura, a holy day for Muslims. His surprise return came as Iran faces huge challenges: Nuclear sites lie in ruins, with the U.S. saying Iran's atomic program is 'obliterated'. Iran has now stopped working with UN nuclear inspectors.
More trouble brews inside Iran's government too. Powerful army groups are fighting for control once Khamenei dies, with some wanting less religious rule.
While missiles hit Tehran and other cities, Khamenei vanished completely. State TV showed no videos of him, and officials gave confusing answers when asked where he was. One aide just told worried Iranians: 'We should all be praying'. Security experts believed Khamenei hid in a secret underground bunker to avoid assassination attempts by Israel, who had threatened to target him directly.
During his disappearance, Khamenei sent only one message, a shaky video released after the ceasefire. He claimed Iran "won" against Israel and called U.S. attacks on nuclear sites 'unimportant'.
But his words didn't match reality: Israel killed over 30 top Iranian commanders and scientists, while U.S. bombs wrecked key nuclear facilities.
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Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
A defiant Iran draws on the lessons of an earlier war
Israel's 12-day campaign of airstrikes on Iran killed a number of top military leaders, wiped out its air defenses and pummeled symbols of its rulers' power. It wasn't the first time Tehran's theocratic leaders had been pushed to the brink. Across the country, schools and streets are named for soldiers and pilots killed in the brutal war fought four decades ago between Iran and Iraq. Then, as now, the conflict pitted the regime against a superior, U.S.-backed adversary. As now, Iran perceived itself as alone and cornered. Yet the regime refused to cave and outlasted Saddam Hussein's Iraq and withstood U.S. pressure. It ultimately grew into a far more potent regional power after the Iraqi leader ended up in America's sights. That experience shaped generations of Iranian leaders and laid the groundwork for strategies that culminated in the most recent war. It also offers guidance as strategists try to game Iran's next moves and its adversaries push to complete the job of winding up its nuclear program. 'That war really looms large in terms of the entire way in which they see themselves under siege, permanently under threat," said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University and author of 'Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History." 'The mindset of the country now is that it dodged a bullet and that it still has to contend with a long term danger." While battered, Iran has remained defiant, most recently by ending cooperation with international nuclear inspectors, a move that closes the world's window on of its program. After the U.S. bombed Iran's core nuclear facilities, the regime vowed to keep its nuclear program going. Abdolrahim Mousavi, the new chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, said Iran 'won't back down." Israel had killed his predecessor days earlier. The pronouncements reflect wartime bravado. Israel's campaign, in which it quickly established dominance in Iran's skies and simultaneously hit many nuclear scientists and military leaders, demonstrated its overwhelming military superiority and the extensive penetration of the regime by its spies. Iran launched a major crackdown once the shooting stopped to reassert its domestic control. But Iran's leaders also have a genuine confidence in their ability to hold out against foreign threats. 'They know that they can survive a total war that lasts a long time," said Afshon Ostovar, an Iran military expert and associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. 'They know they can tolerate a lot more than maybe the Israelis can tolerate." As the cease-fire was about to take effect, Iran launched a salvo of missiles that killed several Israelis. Israeli planes were on the way to retaliate when President Trump demanded that they turn around. '[Iran's leaders] know if the war ends with Iran in a position of weakness, then they're going to be bullied at the negotiating table," said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. 'This is one key factor in their calculations, informed by their experience in the Iran-Iraq war." The Iran-Iraq war began a year after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Saddam sent his troops into Iran seeking to exploit its political disorder and seize territory, including oil-rich areas. Over the ensuing nearly eight-year conflict, Iranians and Iraqis fought one of the deadliest global conflicts of the 20th century, with hundreds of thousands killed on both sides. Saddam used chemical weapons against Iran, and his troops targeted Iran's oil infrastructure but never seized any major oil fields. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was the country's president for the duration of the war. In 1982, Iran's darkest moment came after it launched a failed operation to seize the southern Iraqi city of Basra. It resulted in tens of thousands of Iranian casualties and exposed the country's military weakness. The war prompted Iran to reimagine its defensive strategy in ways that steered it toward a fight with Israel. When Iraq invaded, Iran's rulers tried to compete in the air by freeing jailed U.S.-trained fighter pilots who had fought for the ousted Shah. But they soon ran out of spare parts for their U.S.-made F-14 jet fighters. America, now their enemy, refused to resupply them, and some jets were grounded, gifting Iraq a military advantage. After the war—which Iran claimed as a victory but ended largely inconclusively—Tehran vowed never again to rely on foreign powers to supply weapons for its defense systems. It began to build its own ballistic missiles and drones, ramped up its nuclear program and nurtured a regional network of allied militias to protect its borders and deter its enemies. 'The Islamic Revolution gave the ideology, but the national security establishment, the national security mindset, came out of the Iran-Iraq war," Nasr, of Johns Hopkins, said. The embrace of missiles and other asymmetric weaponry was designed to head off the sort of war of attrition Iran faced against Iraq, which quickly sapped Iran's military resources and manpower, analysts said. 'Iran became very sensitive to losses after the Iran-Iraq war," said Ostovar from the Naval Postgraduate School. 'Politically, it was a huge deal. So they built up this deterrence matrix." But that strategy also brought them into conflict with Israel. Iran's regional allies such as Hamas and Hezbollah frequently confronted Israel, and Israel viewed Iran's nuclear ambitions as an existential threat. Iran's perceived triumph in holding back Iraq also made its leadership complacent, said Ali Ansari, professor of Iranian history at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. While Iran built a missile arsenal, it failed to acquire sufficient air defenses to protect its citizens. As Israeli missiles rained on Tehran, there were no air sirens to warn residents or shelters for them to seek cover in. 'They've come away with an overinflated view of what the achievement in the Iran-Iraq war means for the future," Ansari said. 'They haven't really understood what the impact of a proper air war would be." Moreover, the regime's other key vehicle of deterrence, its allied regional militias, have been degraded by Israeli attacks and remained on the sidelines, leaving it more vulnerable. 'Iran is left with no deterrence and with a military that was not designed to really fight a conventional war," Ostovar said. 'The only thing that Iran really has left to fight with is its missiles and drones." In 1988, after sustained chemical attacks, a renewed Iraqi offensive and the U.S. accidentally shooting down an Iranian passenger plane, killing 290 civilians, Iran signed a cease-fire agreement, forgoing war reparations or even an Iraqi admission of guilt. A tombstone in Tehran for a man killed during the Iran-Iraq war.A funeral in Tehran earlier this month for those killed by Israeli strikes. Iran, despite its global isolation during the war, ended the conflict with Iraq without ceding any territory. Iran's leaders declared their successful resistance a victory. They have done the same today, declaring victory over Israel and the U.S. and vowing to continue enriching uranium and rebuild their nuclear program. 'This strategic loneliness of Iran affects them today," said Arash Azizi, an Iranian historian and author. 'It's not a far cry to see why some people would advocate for nuclear weapons and why Iran would need to have its own defense industry." Write to Sudarsan Raghavan at and Sune Engel Rasmussen at
New Indian Express
2 hours ago
- New Indian Express
Iran's supreme leader makes first public appearance since Iran-Israel war started
Iran' s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday made his first public appearance since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran began, attending a mourning ceremony on the eve of Ashoura. Khamenei's absence during the war suggested the Iranian leader, who has final say on all state matters, had been in seclusion in a bunker — something not acknowledged by state media. State TV in Iran showed him waving and nodding to the chanting crowd, which rose to its feet as he entered and sat at a mosque next to his office and residence in the capital, Tehran. There was no immediate report on any public statement made. Iranian officials such as the parliament speaker were present. Such events are always held under heavy security. After the U.S. inserted itself into the war by bombing three key nuclear sites in Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump sent warnings via social media to the 86-year-old Khamenei that the U.S. knew where he was but had no plans to kill him, 'at least for now.' On June 26, shortly after a ceasefire began, Khamenei made his first public statement in days, saying in a prerecorded statement that Tehran had delivered a 'slap to America's face' by striking a U.S. air base in Qatar, and warning against further attacks by the U.S. or Israel on Iran. Trump replied, in remarks to reporters and on social media: 'Look, you're a man of great faith. A man who's highly respected in his country. You have to tell the truth. You got beat to hell.' Iran has acknowledged the deaths of more than 900 people in the war, as well as thousands of injured. It also has confirmed serious damage to its nuclear facilities, and has denied access to them for inspectors with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Iran's president on Wednesday ordered the country to suspend its cooperation with the watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, further limiting inspectors' ability to track a program that had been enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels. Israel launched the war fearing that Iran was trying to develop atomic weapons. It remains unclear just how badly damaged the nuclear facilities are, whether any enriched uranium or centrifuges had been moved before the attacks, and whether Tehran still would be willing to continue negotiations with the United States over its nuclear program. Israel also targeted defense systems, high-ranking military officials and atomic scientists. In retaliation, Iran fired more than 550 ballistic missiles at Israel, most of them intercepted, killing 28 people and causing damage in many areas.
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Time of India
OPEC+ oil output: Group to raise supply by 548,000 bpd in August; cites strong demand, low inventories
The OPEC+ alliance of oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided on Saturday to increase crude output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating the unwinding of voluntary production cuts amid signs of a stabilising global economy and firm market fundamentals. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now At a virtual meeting, eight members of the 22-nation group, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to raise supply levels, citing low oil inventories and a steady global economic outlook as key factors for the decision, as per news agency AP. The production hike marks a faster pace than previous months, when the group approved increases of 411,000 bpd for May, June, and July, and just 138,000 bpd in April. With the August addition, the bloc will have restored nearly 1.92 million bpd of the 2.2 million barrels they initially cut in April under a phased 18-month schedule set to run through late 2026. According to news agency Reuters, the move comes amid mounting pressure from global consumers and the United States, which has urged producers to increase supply to ease fuel prices. The alliance, which controls about half of the world's oil output, began cutting production in 2022 to stabilise the market, but has shifted course in 2025 to reclaim market share and respond to rising demand. The price of Brent crude futures settled at $68.30 per barrel for September delivery, while US West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $66.50 for August contracts. Oil prices had briefly spiked following the recent 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran but have since dropped back, partly due to a US-brokered peace deal that followed American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. The OPEC Secretariat, in a statement, reiterated that the August increase was in line with an earlier agreement made in December 2023 to gradually restore the 2.2 million bpd cut. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now That delay had originally been attributed to weak global demand and rising competition from non-OPEC producers. According to CNBC, the eight producers involved in Saturday's meeting are implementing two sets of voluntary cuts alongside the coalition's broader policy. One, totalling 1.66 million bpd, remains in effect until end-2026, while the second, which initially curbed an additional 2.2 million bpd until March, is now being rolled back in monthly increments. As per Reuters, tensions within the group have risen recently, as some members such as Kazakhstan and Iraq, exceeded their targets in recent months, prompting internal disagreements. Kazakh output, in particular, rebounded strongly in June, reaching historic highs. The UAE, which received approval for an additional 300,000 bpd increase outside the main quota, has also been pushing for a larger share of future production, signalling internal recalibrations as the alliance adjusts to a changing market. The next meeting of the eight-member sub-group is scheduled for August 3, where further steps in the production schedule may be finalised.
