Minister refuses to say if Channel migrant crossings will fall by 2026

Telegraph

02-07-2025

A senior Cabinet minister has indicated that the Government may not bring down the number of Channel migrant crossings from their record high by next year.
Asked if the numbers would be down by this time next year, Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, told LBC: 'I'm not going to make a prediction.'
Asked again for an assurance that the numbers will reduce, he added: 'I can give you an assurance that the numbers at the moment are too high. We are working together to tackle this.'
His comments came as the number of crossings so far this year passed 20,000, setting a new record high for the first six months of a year.
Some 19,982 migrants had arrived in the UK after making the dangerous crossing by the end of June, the latest Home Office figures show. Several hundred more arrived on Tuesday, taking the total past 20,000.
The total is 48 per cent higher than the figure for the first six months of 2024, which was 13,489, and 75 per cent above the equivalent figure for 2023, which was 11,433.
Some 879 migrants made the journey in 13 boats on Monday, the third highest number of arrivals on a single day so far this year.
Mr McFadden acknowledged that the Government was 'going to have to work harder to bring the numbers down'.
He added: 'Everyone in Government knows it's a big challenge, and as a team we are determined to meet it.'
The Tories seized on his comments. Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: 'Pat McFadden has finally admitted what's been clear to the public for months – Keir Starmer has lost control of our borders.
'Over 20,000 illegal crossings so far this year and tens of thousands more on the way. Now even the Prime Minister's right-hand man can't say whether the numbers will go down next year.
'This is a national security crisis and Labour are asleep at the wheel completely distracted by the crisis made in Downing Street.'
The row comes ahead of a Anglo-French summit on July 8 to 10 to agree a number of measures designed to slow the rate of Channel crossings.
France has also agreed to start intercepting migrant 'taxi boats' at sea for the first time after previously refusing to do so for fear of breaching maritime safety laws. The policy change will see elite French police officers authorised to stop boats within 300 metres of shore and is expected to be confirmed at the summit.
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, are also closing in on a deal to start trialling a one-in, one-out migrant returns deal that is aimed at disrupting the business model of the people smugglers.
Under the deal, France would take back migrants who have illegally crossed the Channel in small boats while the UK would accept a similar number of asylum seekers from France.
Data collection on the Channel crossings began in 2018 and since then more than 170,000 people have arrived. Only about 4 per cent have been removed from the UK. Since Labour entered power nearly a year ago more than 42,000 migrants have arrived.
The Prime Minister's spokesman said the numbers were 'clearly unacceptable', adding: 'Let's be clear, the rising numbers in recent years are because these gangs have been allowed to embed industrial-scale smuggling enterprises across Europe.'
Enver Solomon, the chief executive of the Refugee Council, said: 'The Government is right to tackle the awful gangs that profiteer from desperate people who are simply trying to find safety. But the fact remains that these measures alone are so far not achieving the intended outcome, with deadly crossings rising.
'Most men, women and children taking these journeys are being forced to flee oppressive regimes like the Taliban and brutal civil wars in countries like Sudan. No one risks their life on a flimsy boat in the Channel unless they are running from horrors more acute than what they find on the sea.
'These rising numbers mean the Government must immediately move from enforcement-only to a multi-pronged approach, which includes international co-operation, and ensure refugees can access safe and legal pathways, in the same way Ukrainians have been able to travel to the UK without having to take a dangerous journey.'