Russia Ramps Up Shahed Attacks, But Interceptors Take Them Down

Forbes

4 days ago

Month-end figures confirm what had been obvious all through July: Russia has continued to escalate the scale of attacks by Shahed-type drones, with a record number of drones launched yet again. But a close look shows that this is not the full story. In fact, less drones got through in July than June, despite the rise in the number of attacks. It looks like Ukraine's drive to deploy interceptor drones is taking effect.
The pictures of damaged apartment blocks, buildings on fire and children in underground shelters tell their own story. Russia is waging a ruthless war of terror on Ukraine's civilians, trying to crack morale with a ceaseless drone and missile bombardment. But Ukraine is fighting back.
War By Numbers
The Ukrainian Air Force releases daily statistics on its Telegram channel showing the number of drones launched and the number downed. The way these are reported has changed, as we will see. The total number launched in July was 6,295, up from 5,438 in June.
But the rise in attacks was not reflected in the number of hits. The number that got through in July was 711, down from 760 in June.
The intercept rate, the proportion of drones brought down by guns, missile, interceptors or by electronic warfare went up from 86% to 89% . In May the intercept rate was 82%.
So even though more drones are being launched, rather than crumbling under the extra weight as the Russians will have hoped, the defense seems to be getting stronger.
There are several caveats to go with this. Firstly, these are Ukrainian figures, and Russian supporters dismisses them as propaganda, even though they tally with observations on the ground about the size and temp of attacks.
Secondly, these drones are not all Shaheds. The Iranian-designed drones, now largely made at a giant facility in Alabuga in Russia, are accompanied by smaller types including the Gerbera, Parodiya, and Italmas drones, and possibly others. These are smaller, lower-cost drones with shorter range and more vulnerable to electronic warfare and the Ukrainian Air Force used to collectively refer to them as 'decoys' even though some carry warheads. We have even seen a Shahed with a dummy wooden warhead, assumed to be gathering information about defensive systems, which would also count as a decoy.
Thirdly, the Ukrainian Air Force previously reported electronic warfare and decoy losses separately, but everything is now ,lumped together so we have a less detailed picture of losses.
But, as OSINT analyst Cyrus notes, there is a sharp uptick in the intercept rate after the middle of the month, which coincides with the deployment of interceptor drones.
Layered Defence
The mass drone attacks a layered defence. Shaheds are easy to shoot down individually, but sheer numbers makes them dangerous. U.S-supplied Patriot missiles can take them out easily, but the U.S. can only make 650 of the multimillion dollar Patriots PAC-3 a year, whereas Russia can launch more Shaheds than that – up to 728 – in one night.
Defences include a nationwide electronic warfare system to confuse the drones' guidance, hundreds of mobile defence teams with anti-aircraft machine guns, anti-aitrcraft vehicles like the German-supplied Gepard, plus aircraft and helicopters. Recently the Shaheds have been flying at high altitudes, making ground-based defense less effective.
More images of Ukrainian F-16s and other aircraft bristling with air-to-air missiles on combat patrols have been appearing, and video of them shooting down Shaheds. Again though, with one AIM-9X Sidewinder costing a quarter of a million dollars to shoot down a $50k Shaheds, sheer numbers are against the defenders.
The idea defence is as inexpensive and easy to mass produce as the Shaheds, and Ukrainian developers have come up with a range of interceptor drones for the job. Earlier modified FPVs have been highly effective at brining down Russian reconnaissance drones. New high-performance interceptors with better range, speed and guidance are now hitting the Shaheds, at a cost of a few thousand dollars each.
Types reportedly in service include the Sting made by wild Hornets, ODIN's Win_Hit and the AngryCat made by Venator Technologies, and images have emerged of unidentified types. Ukraine's diverse drone ecosystem has been working overtime to come up with solutions.
Operational security means we hardly ever see images of the new interceptors in action. It is significant that a recent video of air-to-air drone hits lists 261 kills including 48 Lancet and 96 Molniya attack drones – but not a single Shahed. Understandably, there appears to be an embargo on reporting or showing such kills. All we can do is watch the numbers.
Cat And Mouse
This is not, as Winston Churchill might said, the beginning of the end for the drone campaign. The Russians are already working in ways of countering interceptors, including jamming, automatic evasion, and a new model of Shahed with a jet engine to outpace them. We can expect quick responses from Ukraine as they work out ways to counter the countermeasures.
Ultimately the only way to stop the attacks may be to target the manufacturing facilities. But the main factory at Alabuga is huge – at over 800,000 square feet it is the size of 14 football fields – making it a difficult target for drones with small warheads without precise information about the location of vulnerable machinery.
The drone war will continue. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil storage, railway and other targets are also ramping up – and the Russian defences appear considerably less effective.