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ABC News
28 minutes ago
- ABC News
RBA meeting minutes reveal plan for 'cautious and gradual' rate cuts clashed with unemployment 'surge'
They say hindsight is 20-20, but three members of the Reserve Bank board are likely to turn up at the next meeting with the strong temptation to say, "we told you so". The RBA has released the minutes from its meeting two weeks ago, when interest rates were left on hold, catching the market and most private-sector economists off guard. That decision to keep rates steady was made by a six to three majority, with the minority arguing there was no need to wait. "The case to lower the cash rate target at this meeting rested on a view that there was already sufficient evidence to be confident that inflation was on track to be sustainably back at the midpoint of the target range, if not lower," the minutes revealed. The minority in favour of a cut argued that US tariff policy would be a drag on future global economic growth, that Australia's economic expansion remained "subdued", households were saving more, wages growth and services inflation were weakening, and that "recent data suggested a loss of momentum in activity". "Moreover, there was uncertainty around whether market sector employment growth would increase by enough to offset an expected slowing in non-market sector employment growth to maintain momentum in overall employment growth," the minutes showed. That last concern appears to have since been vindicated by another weak set of jobs numbers, released last week, showing unemployment had jumped from 4.1 per cent in May to 4.3 per cent in June, seasonally adjusted, although some analysts have attributed the scale of that increase to statistical variation. At her post-meeting press conference, RBA governor Michele Bullock said the disagreement among the board was not one of where rates should head, but merely the timing of further rate cuts. This is reflected in the formal minutes from the meeting. "All members agreed that, based on the information currently available, the outlook was for underlying inflation to decline further in year-ended terms, warranting some additional reduction in interest rates over time," the minutes noted. The majority who decided to keep interest rates on hold based their decision on a few key elements. Unlike the minority, most board members interpreted recent economic data as surprisingly upbeat, including the very monthly inflation figures that had prompted some market economists to bring forward their rate cut forecasts from August to July. "Monthly indicators of inflation had been marginally higher than were consistent with the staff's forecast for underlying inflation in the June quarter, growth in private demand in the March quarter had been a little stronger than expected and conditions in the labour market had so far not eased as anticipated," the majority argued. They also said that global economic outcomes had so far been more benign than feared at the previous May meeting, when rates had been cut, reducing the urgency for another rate cut. "Members noted that the baseline forecasts already incorporated some deterioration in global economic conditions because of higher tariffs and policy uncertainty, which was consistent with the evidence currently available on how the trade tensions and other factors might be resolved," the minutes revealed. "Moreover, the forecasts had been conditioned on a relatively modest and gradual path of further easing of monetary policy over the period ahead." After two rate cuts, the majority of the board was also concerned that it would be difficult for the RBA to know exactly when monetary policy had changed from being restrictive — that is, holding back economic growth — to neutral or boosting activity. Given the degree of uncertainty around what the current "neutral" level of the cash rate is, the majority argued that "lowering the cash rate a third time within the space of four meetings would be unlikely to be consistent with the strategy of easing monetary policy in a cautious and gradual manner". Despite the expressed caution of the majority on the RBA board, Abhijit Surya from Capital Economics expects rates to fall at next month's meeting on August 11-12, with further cuts to follow. "With the unemployment rate having surged in June and timely indicators suggesting that activity and inflation both remain subdued, the bank will almost certainly resume its easing cycle in August," he noted. "Looking further ahead, we expect the board to cut rates to 2.85 per cent by mid-2026, in line with the bank's stated goal of ensuring that monetary policy is no longer restrictive. "Our terminal rate forecast is below the 3.1 per cent currently predicted by the analyst consensus." Either way, that implies between three and four more rate cuts from the current cash rate of 3.85 per cent, unless the market has again misread the degree of caution among the majority of RBA board members.
News.com.au
2 hours ago
- News.com.au
XPeng reveals plan to be top 5 EV brand in Australia
The battle for Australia's booming car market is heating up, with Chinese EV disruptor XPENG firing back at BYD's claim that local success is a 'signal to the world' of its global dominance. In response to BYD Founder and President Mr Wang Chuanfu's rare and exclusive interview last week, TrueEV CEO Jason Clarke, who heads XPENG's local operations, said that while BYD has 'shifted the EV landscape,' the next wave of innovation is just beginning, and XPeng plans to lead it. 'We agree that Australia represents a globally visible market with high consumer expectations, and XPEND is proud to be part of this shift,' he said. 'We view this as an opportunity to demonstrate what the next generation of EVs can deliver – in both technology and driver experience.' XPEND's response comes after Mr Chuanfu declared that success in Australia proved BYD could 'meet and exceed the expectations of mature markets' – a statement seen by many as a declaration of global EV domination. Clarke said Australia is equally critical to XPEND's global expansion strategy, and he confirmed that the brand is 'here for the long haul'. 'Our goal is bold. We aim to be among the top five pure EV brands in Australia within the next three years,' he said. 'The future of XPEND here is about more than just presence. It's about leadership in the EV revolution.' The Australian market has been heating up over the past few years as Chinese EV makers vie for a position in Australia's booming market, with brands such as BYD, GWM, Chery, and XPEND expanding their local presence. BYD has surged ahead with volume, recently celebrating its 60,000th delivery in Australia, and last month ranked 5th in the best-selling brands nationally. For Clarke, it's not about volume but offering consumers advanced technology like AI-assisted driving, 800V ultra-fast charging and the brand's Turing Chip, an in-house design to power its advanced ADAS systems. 'XPEND is at the frontier of AI and smart driving,' he said. 'Our MONA M03 offers advanced ADAS with XNGP support, over 20 smart hardware components standard, and full-scenario smart parking. We also lead in charging speed with our 800V 5C platform, and our 10-year battery warranty sets a new benchmark for customer confidence.' The brand has already received strong response to the G6 and the upcoming release of the G9. Clarke said the XPEND is taking the Australian market seriously, with infrastructure, innovation and customer support at the centre of its long-term strategy. 'We understand that long distances and fast charging are non-negotiable in Australia,' he said. XPEND is also focused on extended range options, including the Kunpeng Super Electric System offers up to 430km of electric-only range and an impressive 1,400km total range in hybrid format. 'That's why our vehicles use 800V platforms with 5C charging, meaning you can go from 10 per cent to 80 per cent in just 12 minutes.' XPEND is preparing to launch several models locally, including the flagship X9 and the futuristic MONA M03, powered by AI-driven systems and full-scenario smart parking.
News.com.au
3 hours ago
- News.com.au
Top 10 at 11: Gold stocks lead ASX gains as spot price surges to five-week high
Morning, and welcome to Stockhead's Top 10 (at 11… ish), highlighting the movers and shakers on the ASX in early-doors trading. With the market opening at 10am sharp eastern time, the data is taken at 10.15am in the east, once trading kicks off in earnest. In brief, this is what the market has been up to this morning. Gold lifts ASX A weakening in US bond yields and the US dollar itself has prompted a surge in the gold price overnight, jumping 1.4% to a five-week high at US$3,406.40 an ounce. It's the usual drivers at play – Trump's latest tariff deadline of August 1 is swiftly approaching, and uncertainty around exactly what the fallout will be is brewing. The spiking gold price has provided some much needed support for the ASX this morning, which has climbed 0.32% as of about 10:30 am AEST. Materials is accounting for most of those gains, adding 2.09% alongside a 3.03% bounce in the All Ords Gold index and a similar 1.83% jump in the ASX 200 Resources. Not a surprise that small cap resource stocks are making headlines this morning, then. WINNERS Code Name Last % Change Volume Market Cap VR8 Vanadium Resources 0.039 70% 9127771 $12,978,713 MPA Mad Paws 0.125 67% 9176941 $30,468,169 KGD Kula Gold Limited 0.0085 21% 7739739 $6,448,776 DES Desoto Resources 0.17 21% 598222 $26,141,424 TR2 Tali Resources Ltd 0.72 21% 341655 $22,315,475 PRM Prominence Energy 0.003 20% 200000 $1,216,176 DGR DGR Global Ltd 0.007 17% 553260 $6,262,176 RC1 Redcastle Resources 0.007 17% 1199999 $4,461,401 ICR Intelicare Holdings 0.015 15% 632984 $6,320,446 AIV Activex Limited 0.023 15% 2802109 $4,310,052 In the news... Kula Gold (ASX:KGD) has hit bonanza gold at the Mt Palmer project, with results up to 3m at 35.9 g/t gold and 1m at 83.6 g/t gold from 18m of depth. Management says the results are evidence of Mt Palmers' strong geological fundamentals, demonstrating the long-term development potential of the asset. Vanadium Resources (ASX:VR8) has locked in a two-year DSO offtake deal with China Precious Asia Limited for vanadium-rich magnetite, agreeing to supply 100,000 metric tonnes of DSO per month over the contract period. The deal hinges on both the official start of mining operations at the Steelpoortdrift vanadium project and the two parties finalising pricing terms by the end of August. Mad Paws (ASX:MPA) has entered a scheme implementation deed, agreeing to be acquired by Rover Group, Inc at $0.14 per share. The deal values Mad Paws at about $62m. Separately, MPA is offloading its online e-commerce division under the Pet Chemist brand in a share sale agreement with VetPartners Australia Pty Ltd for about $13m in cash consideration. LAGGARDS Code Name Last % Change Volume Market Cap GTR Gti Energy Ltd 0.003 -25% 500000 $14,835,762 1TTDB Thrive Tribe Tech 0.007 -22% 653500 $914,275 AAU Antilles Gold Ltd 0.004 -20% 2078947 $11,895,340 PRX Prodigy Gold NL 0.002 -20% 28500 $15,875,278 BEL Bentley Capital Ltd 0.009 -18% 5658 $837,407 TEG Triangle Energy Ltd 0.0025 -17% 1462961 $6,267,702 AZL Arizona Lithium Ltd 0.006 -14% 99500 $37,662,201 BYH Bryah Resources Ltd 0.006 -14% 3000000 $6,789,675 SPX Spenda Limited 0.006 -14% 125000 $32,306,508
