Hamas won't collapse, even with the death of both Sinwars
Mohammed Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, was killed on May 13. His death has now been confirmed. It was widely rumored to be true over the last ten days. However, Hamas hasn't appeared to change its behavior in Gaza.
The group continues to cling to the central camps area of Nuseirat, Maghazi, Bureij and Deir al-Balah. It still has fighters in Gaza City. It also has some limited control over other parts of Gaza.
Hamas has lost its entire chain of command inGaza. In many cases, its brigade and battalion commanders have been killed more than once. It has replaced them, and they were killed again. Sometimes it's possible that the commanders on October 7 were replaced, and not only was the replacement killed, but his replacement as well.
Company commanders of the group are also decimated. This is according to the IDF reports and other assessments. It's possible the reports are rosy and Hamas is in a better position than it looks.
For instance, Israel has been wrong in the past about assessments of success in Gaza. After the eleventh day of 2021 it was widely reported that the Hamas 'Metro' of tunnels in Gaza was set back 'years.' These reports were wrong. The metro was apparently not damaged very much, and Hamas repaired it in time for the October 2023 attack.
Hamas has always grown more powerful after wars with Israel. It has also replaced numerous leaders in the past. It has come back from blows such as losing Sheikh Yassin to an IDF airstrike, as well as Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi. Mahmoud Abdel Rauf al-Mabhouh, who was key to procuring weapons for Hamas, was also killed in 2010. A long list of Hamas leaders have come and gone.
The Sinwars helped build Hamas into the genocidal powerhouse it was on October 7. However, their deaths have appeared to come and go without much of a change in the organization's behavior.
Yahya Sinwar was hunted down and killed in Tal al-Sultan near Rafah in October 2024. He was alone when he was killed. A few of his last comrades scattered. His death reminds us of the death of the Persian leader Darius III who died fleeing Alexander the Great. He also died after his empire and his men had melted away. However, Hamas doesn't seem to be willing to give in.
This is what is perplexing about these tactical triumphs over the Hamas leaders in Gaza. Israel possesses great excellence in hunting down Hamas leaders and eliminating Hamas commanders. However, the larger strategy appears not to have met with tactical success. What that means is that as Hamas loses leaders, Hamas doesn't seem to actually cave in. Now that could be changing as situations change on the ground in Gaza. The IDF's new plan Gideon's Chariots is supposed to press home the attack and seize ground, rather than the raiding strategy the IDF conducted in 2024.
However, the lack of collapse among the Hamas cadres in the Central Camps is still striking. The group appears to be recruiting many young people who are not willing to stand and fight. Its arsenal is depleted. It doesn't seem to have much left. However, it holds 58 hostages and appears to continue to be able to communicate with its leaders in Doha when it comes to hostage deals.
In fact, the Hamas terms for these deals don't seem to change, despite leadership losses. The deal of January 2025, was primarily similar to the one Hamas wanted throughout 2024. The deal being discussed now is similar to the one offered Hamas in March.
Hamas has some things it wants. It wants an end to the war. However, it never seems to be on the verge of collapse. Even if it is, the deaths of its leaders don't seem to be leveraged in any kind of Clausewitz-like stratagem. Instead, Israel plods forward in tactical successes, without a clear post-war strategy or an exit strategy for Gaza, or even a way to replace Hamas with some other type of civilian authority. Hamas assumes all it has to do is wait and it will maintain some kind of control. Then it can find the next Sinwar to replace those who came before.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Associated Press
17 minutes ago
- Associated Press
'There will be no Hamastan': PM Netanyahu says Israel will defeat Hamas
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Wednesday that 'there will be no Hamas' or 'Hamastan' in postwar Gaza. Netanyahu's remarks came after Hamas suggested it was open to a ceasefire agreement with Israel, but stopped short of accepting a Washington-backed proposal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump hours earlier, insisting on its longstanding position that any deal bring an end to the war in Gaza. Trump said Tuesday that Israel had agreed on terms for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and urged Hamas to accept the deal before conditions worsen.
CNN
39 minutes ago
- CNN
Could a ceasefire finally be struck in Gaza? Here's what to know
Donald Trump has not been shy about his desire for an end to the war in Gaza. After the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran concluded with a ceasefire, the US president has been pushing hard for a truce between Israel and Hamas, saying he was 'looking for it to happen next week,' when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to visit the White House. Trump announced Tuesday that Israel had 'agreed to the necessary conditions' to finalize a 60-day ceasefire. Netanyahu will convene his full cabinet on Saturday night to discuss it. Hamas, meanwhile, said it was considering the latest proposal, without indicating whether it would accept it. The two sides have long had conflicting demands that negotiators have been unable to bridge, but there are renewed hopes of a deal as the war enters its 21st month. Here's what to know. Since the Israel-Iran ceasefire on June 24, mediators Qatar and Egypt – as well as the United States – have redoubled their calls for a new Gaza truce. A Qatari foreign ministry spokesman told CNN the Israel-Iran agreement had created 'momentum' for the latest talks between Israel and Hamas. CNN speaks to families devastated by the Israeli strike on a waterfront cafe in Gaza City Netanyahu's government has faced mounting international criticism for the suffering its war is inflicting on Palestinians in Gaza. Israel imposed a total blockade on humanitarian deliveries to the enclave in March. It somewhat eased the blockade in May, after a chorus of global experts warned that hundreds of thousands of people could soon starve. Hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza have been killed by Israeli strikes in recent days. And aid distribution has been marred by violence, with hundreds killed on their way to try to obtain food from the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the controversial US-backed aid initiative. Pressure is also growing on Netanyahu from within Israel. Opposition leader Yair Lapid said Wednesday that he would join the coalition government to make a hostage deal possible. Trump predicted Tuesday that Netanyahu wanted to end the war. 'He wants to. I can tell you he wants to. I think we'll have a deal next week,' Trump told reporters. The precise details of the new proposal for a 60-day ceasefire and hostage release deal remain murky. The Qatari prime minister previously said Qatar and Egypt had been working to find a 'middle ground' to move forward from the US-conceived truce proposed months ago. That proposal outlined a 60-day ceasefire during which Hamas would release 10 living Israeli hostages and the bodies of a further 18 hostages taken by Hamas during its attacks on October 7, 2023. Of the 50 hostages still in Gaza, at least 20 of them are believed to be alive, according to the Israeli government. The United States and the mediators have provided stronger assurances about reaching a settlement to end the war in Gaza as part of the updated proposal, the Israeli official told CNN. The official did not provide the specific language in the document, but said the wording is stronger than previous assurances. As part of the latest proposal, Israel has also agreed to allow a surge of humanitarian aid through traditional UN-run humanitarian channels rather than through the controversial US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, the Israeli official said. In addition to the aim of bringing the hostages home, Netanyahu has not wavered from his more maximalist aims: disarmament of Gaza and the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities and governance abilities. 'I'm telling you — there will be no Hamas. No 'Hamastan.' We are not going back to that. It's over,' Netanyahu said Wednesday. 'We will bring back all our hostages.' But over the weekend, the prime minister made a rhetorical shift in laying out Israel's goals – for the first time prioritizing the return of hostages ahead of what he once called the 'supreme objective' of defeating Hamas. Netanyahu said 'many opportunities have opened up' following Israel's military operations in Iran, including the possibility of bringing home everyone still held captive by Hamas. 'Firstly, to rescue the hostages,' he said. 'Of course, we will also need to solve the Gaza issue, defeat Hamas, but I believe we will accomplish both missions.' It comes as the Israeli military this week recommended pursuing a diplomatic path in Gaza after nearly two years of fighting and the elimination of much of Hamas' senior leadership. On Tuesday, a military official told CNN that Israel has not fully achieved all of its war goals, but as Hamas' forces have shrunk and gone into hiding, it has become more difficult to effectively target what remains of the militant group. 'It's harder now to achieve tactical goals,' the official said. Hamas has three main demands: a permanent end to the fighting, for humanitarian assistance to be carried out by the United Nations, and for Israel to retreat to the positions it held on March 2 this year, before it renewed its offensive and occupied the northern part of the Strip. A senior Hamas official told CNN in late May that the group is 'ready to return the hostages in one day – just we want a guarantee that war will not come again after that.' In response to the earlier Trump administration-backed ceasefire proposal in May, Hamas requested US assurances that permanent ceasefire negotiations will continue and that fighting will not resume after the 60-day pause. Whether the ceasefire will be temporary or a pathway to a permanent truce is the biggest sticking point between the warring parties. Hamas has also shown no willingness to relinquish its political and military power in Gaza. In the 21 months of war between Israel and Hamas, ceasefires have been in place for a total of only nine weeks. More than 57,000 people, of which more than 17,000 are children, have been killed in Gaza during the fighting, according to the Palestinian health ministry. The first ceasefire came into effect in November 2023, but lasted only a week. In that time, 105 hostages were released from Gaza, in exchange for scores of Palestinian prisoners. A second ceasefire was not struck until January 2025, shortly before Trump's return to the White House. In just over 8 weeks – the first 'phase' of the ceasefire – Hamas freed 33 hostages, with Israel releasing around 50 Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli freed. Under the planned second stage, Israel was supposed to agree to a permanent ceasefire. But Israel resumed its offensive on March 18, shattering the ceasefire and derailing the talks, saying it did so to put pressure on Hamas to release the remaining hostages.
CNN
40 minutes ago
- CNN
Could a ceasefire finally be struck in Gaza? Here's what to know
Donald Trump has not been shy about his desire for an end to the war in Gaza. After the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran concluded with a ceasefire, the US president has been pushing hard for a truce between Israel and Hamas, saying he was 'looking for it to happen next week,' when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to visit the White House. Trump announced Tuesday that Israel had 'agreed to the necessary conditions' to finalize a 60-day ceasefire. Netanyahu will convene his full cabinet on Saturday night to discuss it. Hamas, meanwhile, said it was considering the latest proposal, without indicating whether it would accept it. The two sides have long had conflicting demands that negotiators have been unable to bridge, but there are renewed hopes of a deal as the war enters its 21st month. Here's what to know. Since the Israel-Iran ceasefire on June 24, mediators Qatar and Egypt – as well as the United States – have redoubled their calls for a new Gaza truce. A Qatari foreign ministry spokesman told CNN the Israel-Iran agreement had created 'momentum' for the latest talks between Israel and Hamas. CNN speaks to families devastated by the Israeli strike on a waterfront cafe in Gaza City Netanyahu's government has faced mounting international criticism for the suffering its war is inflicting on Palestinians in Gaza. Israel imposed a total blockade on humanitarian deliveries to the enclave in March. It somewhat eased the blockade in May, after a chorus of global experts warned that hundreds of thousands of people could soon starve. Hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza have been killed by Israeli strikes in recent days. And aid distribution has been marred by violence, with hundreds killed on their way to try to obtain food from the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the controversial US-backed aid initiative. Pressure is also growing on Netanyahu from within Israel. Opposition leader Yair Lapid said Wednesday that he would join the coalition government to make a hostage deal possible. Trump predicted Tuesday that Netanyahu wanted to end the war. 'He wants to. I can tell you he wants to. I think we'll have a deal next week,' Trump told reporters. The precise details of the new proposal for a 60-day ceasefire and hostage release deal remain murky. The Qatari prime minister previously said Qatar and Egypt had been working to find a 'middle ground' to move forward from the US-conceived truce proposed months ago. That proposal outlined a 60-day ceasefire during which Hamas would release 10 living Israeli hostages and the bodies of a further 18 hostages taken by Hamas during its attacks on October 7, 2023. Of the 50 hostages still in Gaza, at least 20 of them are believed to be alive, according to the Israeli government. The United States and the mediators have provided stronger assurances about reaching a settlement to end the war in Gaza as part of the updated proposal, the Israeli official told CNN. The official did not provide the specific language in the document, but said the wording is stronger than previous assurances. As part of the latest proposal, Israel has also agreed to allow a surge of humanitarian aid through traditional UN-run humanitarian channels rather than through the controversial US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, the Israeli official said. In addition to the aim of bringing the hostages home, Netanyahu has not wavered from his more maximalist aims: disarmament of Gaza and the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities and governance abilities. 'I'm telling you — there will be no Hamas. No 'Hamastan.' We are not going back to that. It's over,' Netanyahu said Wednesday. 'We will bring back all our hostages.' But over the weekend, the prime minister made a rhetorical shift in laying out Israel's goals – for the first time prioritizing the return of hostages ahead of what he once called the 'supreme objective' of defeating Hamas. Netanyahu said 'many opportunities have opened up' following Israel's military operations in Iran, including the possibility of bringing home everyone still held captive by Hamas. 'Firstly, to rescue the hostages,' he said. 'Of course, we will also need to solve the Gaza issue, defeat Hamas, but I believe we will accomplish both missions.' It comes as the Israeli military this week recommended pursuing a diplomatic path in Gaza after nearly two years of fighting and the elimination of much of Hamas' senior leadership. On Tuesday, a military official told CNN that Israel has not fully achieved all of its war goals, but as Hamas' forces have shrunk and gone into hiding, it has become more difficult to effectively target what remains of the militant group. 'It's harder now to achieve tactical goals,' the official said. Hamas has three main demands: a permanent end to the fighting, for humanitarian assistance to be carried out by the United Nations, and for Israel to retreat to the positions it held on March 2 this year, before it renewed its offensive and occupied the northern part of the Strip. A senior Hamas official told CNN in late May that the group is 'ready to return the hostages in one day – just we want a guarantee that war will not come again after that.' In response to the earlier Trump administration-backed ceasefire proposal in May, Hamas requested US assurances that permanent ceasefire negotiations will continue and that fighting will not resume after the 60-day pause. Whether the ceasefire will be temporary or a pathway to a permanent truce is the biggest sticking point between the warring parties. Hamas has also shown no willingness to relinquish its political and military power in Gaza. In the 21 months of war between Israel and Hamas, ceasefires have been in place for a total of only nine weeks. More than 57,000 people, of which more than 17,000 are children, have been killed in Gaza during the fighting, according to the Palestinian health ministry. The first ceasefire came into effect in November 2023, but lasted only a week. In that time, 105 hostages were released from Gaza, in exchange for scores of Palestinian prisoners. A second ceasefire was not struck until January 2025, shortly before Trump's return to the White House. In just over 8 weeks – the first 'phase' of the ceasefire – Hamas freed 33 hostages, with Israel releasing around 50 Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli freed. Under the planned second stage, Israel was supposed to agree to a permanent ceasefire. But Israel resumed its offensive on March 18, shattering the ceasefire and derailing the talks, saying it did so to put pressure on Hamas to release the remaining hostages.
