Fear and loathing in Labour: A party on the edge angry at Drakeford, Morgan and Starmer

Wales Online

2 days ago

Fear and loathing in Labour: A party on the edge angry at Drakeford, Morgan and Starmer
Welsh Labour is approaching next year's Senedd election in a state of consternation
Keir Starmer's visit to Wales included a short speech to party members
(Image: Getty Images )
There are a few facts that are inescapably true about the Labour Party in Wales. It has had a very long time in power and still maintains a lot of support yet being under the red umbrella of "Welsh Labour" doesn't mean they are one homogeneous group.
In Wales, it has a leader who wasn't the first choice of many of the party's elected politicians, and didn't win a member ballot, and in the UK they have a leader who did win a leadership contest, but whose popularity is tanking. These things matter because right now the party is facing up to a very difficult year with a fight on at least two fronts - the new, populist appeal of Reform on one side and the familiar thorn of Plaid Cymru on the other.
‌
Despite its history, resources, supporters and traditions, Labour is approaching the Senedd elections in May next year fearing two historic disasters - its first defeat in a Welsh election in more than 100 years and the formation of the first Welsh Government since devolution began in 1999 in which it is not the dominant party.
‌
There are many causes for concern nagging at and dividing party members, politicians and leaders. Among the most divisive are the recriminations over how and why the party was instrumental in bringing in a new electoral system that some believe will cost it the inbuilt advantage which it has enjoyed through first-past-the-post elections for generations. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
Mark Drakeford personally comes in for a lot of the criticism. He is the one who pushed through, alongside Plaid Cymru, the new electoral system for choosing the 96 members of the expanded Senedd.
At first, the new system was seen by political pundits as having been a stitch up by the two parties which would shut out smaller parties and independents through a complex list system in which Wales would be divided up into 16 super constituencies, from each of which six Senedd Members would be chosen through a system of proportional representation.
Article continues below
Yet the rise of Reform has left that political calculation looking far less certain. If Reform repeats the success it saw in last year's Westminster election - in which it came second in 13 constituencies, third in nine and fourth in four - it would be uniquely poised to benefit from an election in which there could theoretically be no advantage from actually having the most votes in a constituency if the numbers are tight.
Devolved Wales has always had some proportional representation through the 20 regional Senedd Members, alongside the 40 directly-elected ones. But now all 96 will be chosen by PR.
Thanks to the geographic spread of its support, Reform could pick up one or two Senedd Members in all of the super constituencies in Wales.
‌
Former First Minister of Wales Mark Drakeford
(Image: Getty Images )
"Thankyou very f***ing much Mark Drakeford" I remember being told long before the polls started showing just how bad it could get for Labour.
There is a widely held belief that this has been his pet project, something he believed to be right so insisted on delivering before he retires from front line politics.
‌
But, Labour is a strange, unforgiving beast. Rivalries from decades ago between different Cardiff branches are not forgotten and he is criticised for listening to his Cardiff West group and long-term allies rather than taking the electoral pulse of other parts of the party, lay members or even voters.
The theory is this is something he has long wanted and has delivered, so no matter what the collateral damage he is stubbornly wedded to this model whatever the implications.
He is accused of defiantly pursuing reform "intent on losing us the next election" because he listens to few outside his local circle.
‌
However, all the dredging up rows and bad blood from decades ago, masks a reality that the new electoral system might be the thing that actually saves Labour from total annihilation. First-past-the post won't help a party if it isn't the biggest party in a seat, and the latest polls suggest there may not be many seats in Wales where Labour can be certain of that any more.
A huge MRP poll by YouGov last week gave us an indication how Labour would fare in a straight first past the post election, and it wasn't good with almost all the red wiped off Wales' electoral map. Of the 32 constituencies polled, Labour is projected to get four seats. Suddenly that 18% in the new Senedd looks an awful lot better than that 12.5%.
The polling shows that in Wales, Labour would be left with just four MPs
‌
This weekend, in a warm and muggy Llandudno party members did their usual, booking out the hotel rooms, going to a disco led by the First Minister, and then a gala dinner after a long day of being moved to empty seats to clap at speeches so the camera picks up a full and enthusiastic room.
But you'd be lucky outside that room if you knew that because someone had decided to curtail media access to the top politicians more than I have ever seen at a party conference before.
Yes, it fell at a terrible time with Keir Starmer in the spotlight over his U-turn on reform of Personal Independence Payments (Pip) and facing criticism from many in his own party in Wales over how his handling of the situation.
‌
But surely the party would want people to know the Prime Minister had been there?
A few reasons were given to me as to why any of the usual things didn't happen. There was extra limited access to the traditional visit the day before, no media huddle to ask questions, no one-on-ones. Not even the attempt to get the party's usual favoured choice of an opinion piece on our website or paper.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer is shown a Hawk T2, the RAF's premier fast jet trainer during a visit to RAF Valley
(Image: Getty Images )
‌
Different reasons were given to me as to why that happened - Welsh Labour told Number 10 to steer clear and others wondered if the heightened security was signs of something going behind the scenes - but it was, as a side note, galling given it wasn't long since Keir Starmer invited members of the regional press to Downing Street to explain how important their role is and how much he values our audience.
My own theory? They didn't want more questions about division, so let's get in, get out, and tick the box of having visited Wales. "Mad" is how one comms professional responded when I explained the above.
Keir Starmer came and ticked a box, but delivering a short, anti-climatic speech which was short of substance and didn't really offer much to the electoral battle Labour faces. The line from his team about a "backroom stitch up between the Tories, Reform and Plaid" didn't go down well with his colleagues, let alone the opposition.
‌
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaks during the 2025 Welsh Labour party conference
(Image: Getty Images )
Granted, there is a small cross-section of people who attend a party conference, clearly you're a big fan, a big fan with the time, resources, inclination and money to attend. But in some ways, it's the most telling way to gauge the mood, because if you're one of these uber fans and you're not happy, then there is a real problem.
The dynamics were variously described to me as being "end of days" and "awful" and some of that is inevitable because there are wider, worldwide factors at play which will impact the result here.
‌
Populist parties are doing well, traditional parties are getting a kicking and the news agenda is dominated by things that are out of the control of anyone but Eluned Morgan personally is in for flak too.
She is cheerleading to the best of her ability, but she is not the leader her colleagues wanted, and she is described as "chaotic" and taking a scattergun approach to policy.
Having surrounded herself with communications advisors, there is a real dearth of policy or substance, it was repeatedly put to me - but there are lots of glossy videos.
‌
Each time she announces a new big idea, there are cabinet members and civil servants having to rejig to deliver it. The latest of those is that this weekend she announced a new government department for AI, and how much money is dedicated to creating this "world leading AI growth zone"? Just £2.5m.
There is real disbelief the party has failed to get its election candidates in place, or even a plan to appoint them. There is real worry and uncertainty about what the election result will be in May.
Relations between MPs and MSs are never entirely hunky dory but Eluned Morgan's Norwegian Church speech where she said the UK Government had not done "enough" and "we need to see more from them" really angered the Parliamentary Labour Party, as did a call where she reportedly accused Welsh Labour MPs in Westminster of not standing up for Wales.
‌
And while a lot of photos are being released showing they are truly BFFs, there are questions about just how much the Welsh secretary and First Minister agree on.
First Minister of Wales Eluned Morgan during the 2025 Welsh Labour party conference
(Image: Getty Images )
When she took to the conference stage, she whipped out a Welsh flag showing she's different to London. She emphasised that message with her choice of clothes at an evening conference event, wearing a red jacket and T shirt promising 'the red Welsh way'.
‌
MPs who went in expecting the change Labour had promised are bruised - it has been far from the first year they expected. While their Senedd colleagues are still recovering from an utterly bruising spell with egos out of place, anger, upset, factions and - as one said - "bodies still all over the floor".
Eluned Morgan's choice to hammer home this message of "I will do what's right for Wales" (even if that means calling out UK Government) is galling to MPs there who say actually, Welsh Labour has made a mess of health and education over the last 26 years on its own, and now they have been given a huge chunk of change, they are the ones who need to do the right thing with it.
‌
And you cannot escape the fact succinctly put to me that "There's an irony that we invented the system that will oust us."
If Labour is in a position to form a government, even as a minority partner, the locker of experience has been depleted because big players will have gone. The decades of experience of Mark Drakeford, Julie James, Julie Morgan, Rebecca Evans and Jane Hutt to name just five will no longer be there. But this changing of the guard also sees some of the most tribal soldiers leaving.
Eluned Morgan is criticised for surrounding herself with too many people tasked with "communications" and too few with actual policy. New projects and policies are announced on the hoof with no thought about how it will be delivered or will play out outside her core team.
‌
And the party itself is not blameless. While other parties are flying through their candidate selections, Labour - which let us not forget started this whole reform idea - has thus far failed to agree on the rules by which candidates will be chosen let alone chosen its candidates. That means they still do not have a full list of the 96 candidates required under the new system, ranked in the order of which they will appear on the ballot paper.
There is no date for when that will happen either, so while incumbent Senedd members have been chosen, the new blood of prospective candidates believe it will be October or November before they know.
What does that do? Well it keeps them on their toes. If you're someone trying to secure selection and get the number one slot to maximise your election chances, then having to be on your best behaviour for longer, showing the party's upper echelons you're a good loyal servant works for them. That's a lot more leaflets you'll deliver.
‌
But it doesn't work for you if you're trying to out-compete a constituency colleague, building resentment at the number of events they post X status' from, who you may well end up on the list next to and (potentially) sat next to in the Senedd. It's a mad election strategy because normally, parties want the longest built-up time possible. They want voters to know the names, the faces.
If Labour seriously doesn't deliver its decisions until the autumn or even the winter, they are limiting their potential for campaigning and will let their candidates loose at the time of year they least like campaigning, because people are more bothered about planning their Christmas than talking about politics on a cold damp doorstep.
How did this happen? More than one person told me a plan for candidates had been drawn up by the Welsh Executive Committee and the party was ready to go, but then it was pulled, with no explanation.
‌
Before Eluned Morgan spoke, one long standing member told me she needed to row it back, stop talking about abstract things people can't grasp like green energy or economic summits, get back to three things - education, waiting times and social care.
Then she went on stage and announced Wales was to be an AI wonder zone. Yes lots of people were talking about that idea as they filtered out of the hall but not in a good way. The big ideas she likes talking about about economic summits and green jobs are too abstract for Mrs Jones on the street. They need simpler messages.
What is telling is how many people, even senior figures, have no idea what the next year holds. But no-one in Labour is talking about Labour being the biggest party. They are reasonably optimistic that they will get more than 18%, but a lot of that will be down to people not turning out for Reform or turning out at all, not because they actually want to back Labour.
Article continues below
Eluned Morgan might claim "we are family" but this is far from a happy one.