Swinney independence referendum plan 'born of expediency'

The Herald Scotland

4 days ago

Mr Swinney set out his approach in a newspaper article on Monday returning to the approach of former [[SNP]] First Minister Alex Salmond 14 years ago.
Mr Salmond secured an outright majority for the [[SNP]] at the 2011 [[Holyrood]] election, a result that led to a joint agreement with the UK Government on a referendum.
He was the only party leader to have done so since 1999 with the electoral system for the Scottish Parliament designed to make it more difficult for parties to have an overall majority and to encourage parties working together in coalition governments.
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In a letter to Mr Swinney, Mr MacAskill says the First Minister must know there is little chance of the SNP winning a majority in the 2026 Holyrood elections.
"I note your comments in Monday's press in which you claim that an SNP majority at next year's election is needed to deliver a second independence referendum," he writes.
"You must know in your heart of hearts that the chances of you achieving a second overall majority for the SNP is extremely unlikely, in a system that is designed to prevent that from happening. The SNP's success in 2011, in which it achieved an overall majority, was achieved against a very different set of circumstances."
Mr MacAskill lists three reasons why the chances are against Mr Swinney's SNP winning a majority next year.
Kenny MacAskill with the late Alex Salmond (Image: Colin Mearns) "The SNP [in 2011] were led by a statesman without rival in the Scottish Parliament at the head of a government which had demonstrated a level of competence and delivery in the NHS, education, local government, crime and policing, infrastructure investment and much else," he writes.
"Frankly your record and that of your predecessors does not stand comparison with that delivered in the first five years of the SNP's term in office.
"A significant gap has opened up between support for the SNP which is running at around 30% and support for independence which runs at around 50%."
He accuses Mr Swinney of using the strategy as a way of attempting to get more support for the SNP rather than a way of achieving independence.
"People in the country will therefore conclude that you are taking SNP voters for fools, that you are paying lip service to independence and that you are squandering the opportunity of the 2026 election to achieve it," he writes.
"Independence supporters will see this for what it is a tactic born of electoral expediency rather than political conviction. It is designed to bolster the SNP vote not to achieve independence."
Mr MacAskill goes on to add that "to achieve independence you must first seek the mandate for it" and "to do that you must achieve maximum unity" among all of the independence supporters and pro-independence parties in the country.
On Tuesday the [[SNP]] told The National that Mr Swinney is set to call for the 'immediate establishment' of a constitutional convention to 'marshal support' for Scottish independence.
The [[SNP]] leader will ask members to support the move in a motion put forward at the party conference in Aberdeen in October.
The motion intends to set up a 'Scottish constitutional convention' to 'marshal support for Scotland's right to decide through gathering support from the people of Scotland, civic bodies and international opinion'.
The full conference motion, seen by The National and titled 'Winning independence', states: 'Conference believes that the Scottish election in 2026 offers the people of Scotland a fresh start for our nation; that an SNP majority in that election, repeating the precedent of 2011, is the only uncontested route to delivering a new referendum.
'It is essential that, as before, the pro-independence campaign in that referendum should be broad-based and inclusive of the wide range of pro-independence campaigning bodies, representing a cross-section of Scottish society.'
In his letter to Mr Swinney, Mr MacAskill adds that he wants all of the parties which support independence to contain a commitment in their manifestos that a majority of votes for pro independence parties at the Holyrood elections, would be a mandate for independence itself - not a second referendum.
"That is why I am calling on each of the pro-independence parties to contain a clear and unambiguous commitment in their manifestos that if a majority of votes are cast on the list vote for pro-independence parties that will constitute the mandate for independence, not a second independence referendum," he tells Mr Swinney.
"The urgent need to achieve independence and the unity of the independence movement requires you to re-consider your position. I urge you to do so, to put country before party and to call a summit of all of the pro-independence parties, to prepare for a plebiscite election, as a matter of urgency."
In a separate press statement, Mr MacAskill welcomed the convention but said it should take place right away rather than waiting until after the SNP's conference in October.
'A Constitutional Convention is to be welcomed. But it must be now as the need is urgent. It must also be the launch pad for a plebiscite election and include all pro-independence parties as the referendum route is doomed to fail. Otherwise it will be a blind alley leading to a political cul de sac," he said.
'Holyrood 2026 must be Scotland's Independence Election where the pro independence parties seek a mandate for independence and agree that a majority of votes cast for pro-independence parties, on the regional list, will constitute that mandate.
'Alba have consistently called for action on independence. The SNP have an opportunity to make this Convention more than symbolic, and instead ensure that it leads directly to a clear, democratic mandate for independence at the next election.'
Last month Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson explicitly ruled out holding a convention of independence-supporting parties this summer.
SNP depute leader Keith Brown told the party's conference last year that he would support an independence convention that included other Yes-party representatives.
A spokesperson for the First Minister said: "Independence is the fresh start that Scotland needs for a better future - and the First Minister is determined to unlock a route that makes it possible.
"It is clear from recent electoral history that only an outright SNP majority in an election has delivered a legally-recognised referendum process which would lead to independence.
"Compared to 2011, support for independence is much higher, the SNP is a much larger party - with a more formidable campaigning machine - and the case for Westminster control has never been weaker. Over the next few months, the SNP will set out a bold and ambitious vision for an independent Scotland - and we will seek to unite people in Scotland around that SNP vision in the election next May."