Amazon predicts thriving future for high street retail hand in hand with e-commerce
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LSEG data shows that of the 77 analysts covering the Amazon, 22 rate it a strong buy while 48 rate it a buy. Here's what analysts at some of Wall Street's biggest firms are looking for in Amazon's results this time: Bank of America: Buy rating, price target to $265 from $248 The bank expects expecting a second-quarter beat, driven by growth in Amazon's retail business. Faster capital spending at Amazon Web Services should drive growth in the second half of the year and support stock gains, according to analyst Justin Post. "We slightly raise estimates for strong 2Q retail data, FX and Anthropic AI growth, and our revised $164bn 2Q rev. est. is above Street ($162bn). For AWS, we expect 16.5% 2Q growth to decelerate slightly vs 1Q, though strong AI demand and AWS capacity growth to drive 2H acceleration." UBS: Buy, price target to $271 from $249 Analyst Stephen Ju reiterated a buy rating on Amazon ahead of results. His investment thesis is built on expectations of faster share gains with expanding availability of one- and same-day Prime delivery, e-commerce margin expansion and new revenue from Prime Video with ads, a Monday note to clients said. "We raise our price target to $271 from $249 as we take steps to unwind some of the estimate decreases from three months ago, when we were anticipating a greater amount of tariff-driven demand destruction," Ju wrote. "All of AMZN, GOOGL, META, for lack of a better analogy are coiled springs, and we believe Amazon to be 'most-coiled' among our coverage given the more extensive investments across e-commerce, AWS, content/advertising and Kuiper [Amazon's project for global broadband internet access using satellites in low Earth orbit]. As revenue begins to show up more meaningfully, the upward revisions to operating profit and FCF dollars should prove more dramatic vs its peers." Wedbush Securities: Outperform, price target to $250 from $235 Analyst Scott Devitt is looking to see Amazon's retail segment performance and consumer demand trends, momentum in AWS and artificial intelligence monetization and signals as to growth in advertising and capex. "We are constructive on the setup ahead of the report given encouraging U.S. retail data, healthy advertiser sentiment, strong AWS demand, and continued efficiency gains across the business that should drive upside to margin expectations," he said in a Wednesday note. "Still, profitability forecasts for the year remain depressed as investors weigh the impact of tariff/macro uncertainty, currency risk, rising expenses to support AI initiatives and an uncertain cost trajectory associated with Project Kuiper. We think the risk/reward is attractive, and we see opportunity for Amazon to deliver upside to current operating income expectations." Morgan Stanley: Overweight, price target $300 from $250 Analyst Brian Nowak reiterated Amazon as a top pick. He believes AWS could see accelerating revenue with the rapid growth of Anthropic, which he said saw a $4 billion annual run-rate around the end of the second quarter. Nowak expects Anthropic to reach $10 billion in revenue in 2026 and $19 billion in 2027. "Today, we are re-raising our estimates as we adjust for the more constructive macro landscape with lower tariffs," he wrote in a July 10 note. "In all, our new AWS base model could prove conservative if Anthropic continues to grow and GPU supply constraints the door for faster GPU and non-GPU enabled workload growth (as we believe MSFT Azure is currently seeing)." Barclays: Overweight, $240 price target Barclays is bullish on Amazon's longer-term trends. "We see modest upside to our ~9% y/y ex-fx revenue growth estimate for 2Q as consumer trends (incl. Barclay card data) remain solid and tariff headwinds didn't materialize as much as feared 90 days ago and consumer spending remained strong ... Despite this, we aren't expecting an acceleration systemwide for AWS in 2Q but perhaps in 2H (both training and inference revenues on AWS need to be considered ... As additional GPU capacity comes online, we expect AWS revenue to start to accelerate, perhaps in 3Q," analyst Ross Sandler wrote. "For 3Q we expect solid revenue on the back of the extra Prime days and the AWS acceleration, coupled with higher costs." Deutsche Bank: Buy, price target to $266 from $230 Amazon market share gains have accelerated in the absence of e-commerce competitors Temu and Shein, supporting a case for upside in second- and third-quarter numbers, analyst Lee Horowitz said in a July 22 report. "With objectively healthy and consistent revenue trends in the 2Q, a strengthening share position, upside to 2Q operating income, continued momentum in advertising, consistent cost to serve declines and AWS revenue that we expect to accelerate in the 2H, the Amazon earnings growth algorithm is likely to strengthen coming out of 2Q earnings." Citigroup: Buy, price target to $265 from $225 Analyst Ronald Josey said Amazon remains one of Citi's top picks across its internet coverage. "We believe results are likely to be better-than-consensus expectations across both Revenue and Operating Income. AWS revenue growth remains the key focus area and we will be listening for progress with AWS' infra[structure] build-out in 1H which should lead to accelerating growth in 2H25. We believe Retail trends improved throughout the quarter," he said in a July 22 note.
