Cameroon's Paul Biya: World's oldest president is the favourite as he seeks an eighth term

France 24

5 days ago

Cameroon's Paul Biya still has no intention of stepping down at the age of 92.
In power for almost 43 years, he announced in mid-July that he would stand in the October 12 presidential elections, seeking an eighth seven-year term.
In a statement posted on X, Biya suggested he was giving in to widespread calls for him to remain in power. 'I have therefore decided to heed the numerous and insistent calls from the ten regions of our country and the diaspora,' he said as he announced his candidacy.
'Rest assured that my determination to serve you is commensurate with the serious challenges facing us,' he added.
The announcement was remarkably similar to a previous one from 2018.
'Aware of the challenges we must take up together to ensure a more united, stable and prosperous Cameroon, I am willing to respond positively to your overwhelming calls,' said the Cameroonian president back on his seventh presidential candidacy.
Biya does enjoy relative popularity, according to Roger Nicolas Oyono Mengue, a doctorate student at the Les Afriques dans le Monde (LAM) research centre at Sciences Po Bordeaux. 'Since 2020, there have been numerous motions of support from across the political spectrum calling on the president to run again. Paul Biya also declared in December 2024 that his determination to serve the people remains intact,' he said.
'Paul Biya tends to create suspense in the way he governs, only to ultimately reassert his legitimacy by presenting himself as the key piece of the puzzle.'
But this latest announcement has sparked some criticism as Biya's public appearances have dwindled.
He spends most of his time in his palace in his hometown Mvomeka'a, in the country's south, or on private trips to Geneva.
His absence from the public sphere for more than six weeks last October reignited rumours about the state of his health.
The man who has ruled unchallenged for more than four decades has also come under fire for embezzlement and corruption allegations, poor leadership and a failure to address Cameroon's security issues.
As the leader of a nation where almost 40% of the population lives at or below the poverty rate, his taste for luxury and lavish holidays has also sparked criticism.
Cracks in the ruling party
Biya's camp has already seen several defections, including presidential bids announced by former government minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary and former prime minister Bello Bouba Maïgari – both long-time supporters of the president.
To formalise his bid for candidacy, the incumbent bypassed the traditional preliminary consultations with the Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) leadership, prompting unease within the ruling party.
Municipal councillor Léon Theiller Onana has been an outspoken voice of this discontent within his party, filing a legal challenge to Biya's nomination and demanding a party congress.
'This creates a sense among the public that there is a kind of erosion of power linked to Paul Biya's age and his increasingly rare appearances in the public sphere,' Brice Molo, a sociologist and historian at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales and the University of Yaoundé, told FRANCE 24's sister station Radio France Internationale.
'His absence is being offset by the prominence of Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, secretary-general to the president, who appears to be the main beneficiary of this new candidacy.'
Ngoh Ngoh is set to be the key player in the forthcoming campaign. According to the magazine Jeune Afrique, he has taken the reins of an informal strategic committee charged with calling up the troops and setting the CPDM's electoral machinery in motion.
A system that maintains 'national peace'
Despite signs that the Biya regime is weakening, it still seems able to silence – or at least push aside – the critical voices to maintain what it calls the 'national peace', said Oyono Mengue.
'The system works by dividing up the 'national cake' – handing out government positions and resources – which helps it keep support across the country,' the expert explains.
'Ethnic factors may also play a role, though the regime calls it 'sociological logic'. Altogether, this creates a kind of consensus. Ordinary people may be struggling, but some still benefit from how the system is set up.'
'Paul Biya remains a unifying figure because his name is associated with the levers of power: the public administration has so far remained fairly loyal, as has the army. He still can reward and punish,' Molo observed.
Cameroon is one of the world's leading cocoa exporters and has vast natural resources including oil, gas and valuable hardwoods.
According to the World Bank, the African country's GDP grew by 3.5% in 2024, up from 3.2% in 2023, thanks to rising cocoa prices, higher cotton yields and improvements in electricity supply.
But despite its natural resources, Cameroon continues to face deep inequalities, and weak infrastructure remains a recurring challenge.
Inflation also continues to impact purchasing power, with an official rate of 5% in 2024.
The almost 40% of Cameroonians who live below the poverty line increasingly voice their frustration over precarious living conditions and the lack of basic services such as access to clean water and quality healthcare.
While the opposition may hope to tap into this social discontent and the desire for change among sections of the youth, who are particularly hard-hit by unemployment, political rivalries make the prospect of uniting behind a challenger unlikely. According to Elecam, the body overseeing electoral processes, nearly 30 presidential applications have already been submitted. With just a few months to go before the vote, negotiations are in full swing between several opposition figures and parties, but no clear consensus has emerged yet.
Among the contenders are Cabral Libii, a prominent opposition figure and MP, and law professor Maurice Kamto, a fierce critic of the regime who came second in the 2018 presidential election and is widely seen as one of the few candidates capable of challenging Biya.
Kamto, who was a former candidate from the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC), is running this time under the banner of the African Movement for New Independence and Democracy (Manidem). The move is aimed at bypassing an electoral law that requires parties to hold seats in parliament or local councils to take part in the presidential race; the MRC boycotted the last legislative and municipal elections in 2020.
Several government officials have already challenged this move, saying it breaks the rules, and have asked for Kamto's candidacy to be rejected.
A decision is expected in early August with the publication of the final list of candidates.