Morning Bid: Markets oddly serene

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4 days ago

By Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
Despite the edgy political and policy backdrop, world markets seem to be doing just fine, eking out new records for stocks as bonds are being bought to boot.
I'll discuss all the market news below, and then I'll explore how the Trump administration's push to reform the Fed might have deeper and longer-lasting impacts than the removal of Jerome Powell.
Today's Market Minute
* Japan's election outcome may put the central bank in a double bind as prospects of big spending could keep inflation elevated while potentially prolonged political paralysis and a global trade war provide compelling reasons to go slow on rate hikes.
* A growing number of European Union member states, including Germany, are considering using wide-ranging "anti-coercion" measures targeting U.S. services if the EU cannot reach a trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, EU diplomats say.
* The European Union's latest effort to restrict Russia's oil revenue is unlikely to hurt Moscow's war effort severely, leaving U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of secondary sanctions one of the few remaining economic levers to pressure the Kremlin, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.
* A key difference in crude oil demand forecasts between this year and 2024 is that both OPEC and the International Energy Agency are being far more cautious in their growth expectations. ROI Asia Commodities columnist Clyde Russell explains why this matters.
Markets oddly serene
U.S. tariff hikes are likely coming next week, public debt is rising and Federal Reserve independence is being questioned - but the U.S. and world economies seem to be chugging on regardless, well through the northern summer.
Annualized U.S. economic growth is running about 2.4% at midyear and U.S. economic surprise indexes are more positive than they have been for a couple of months, with global equivalents at their most positive in more than a year. U.S. financial conditions indexes are the loosest in three years.
With big-tech megacaps due to start reporting Wednesday with Alphabet and Tesla updates, the earnings season just unfolding is already ahead of low-bar expectations. With about 12% of S&P500 firms now reported, the blended estimate of annual profit growth is running at 6.7% - about a point faster than was seen at the start of July.
The new highs for the S&P500 and Nasdaq on Monday were less surprising given all that, even though the daily moves were marginal and futures basically flat ahead of Tuesday's bell.
There's been little new on the trade tariff front, even though European Union warnings late Monday of its willingness to use a range of retaliatory measures if faced with higher levies dampened the equity market mood somewhat on Tuesday.
Relief that weekend Japanese upper house elections did not force an immediate resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba saw the yen pop higher on Monday and 10-year Japanese government yields fell sharply as Tokyo markets reopened on Tuesday. The Nikkei lost early gains.
The drop in U.S. and European short- and long-term Treasury yields on Monday was perhaps more surprising, pulling the dollar back down in the process as the focus switched to Japan.
While some of that was given back on Tuesday, the buoyancy of the long end of the U.S. curve was remarkable given Fed independence concerns.
Even though Fed policymakers are in a blackout period on policy statements ahead of next week's meeting, embattled Fed boss Jerome Powell is due to give opening remarks to a Fed regulatory conference on Tuesday.
All of which brings us back to the Fed poser, the political pressure on the central bank to accelerate interest rate cuts and threats to Powell's position over anything from historical Fed policy performance and its involvement in non-monetary issues to how he managed rennovations of the headquarters.
Chart of the day
Reuters is tracking how companies are responding to the threat posed by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. As of July 22, Reuters has counted 273 companies worldwide that have reacted to the tariffs in some manner. The estimated cost to the companies stood at over $34 billion, as of end May. Our tally is based on various sources, including quarterly financial reports, interviews and statements from company officials.
Today's events to watch
* Richmond Federal Reserve July business survey (10:00 AM EDT)
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gives welcome remarks before hybrid "Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks" Conference hosted by the Fed
* U.S. corporate earnings: Lockheed Martin, General Motors, Pentair, Paccar, Halliburton, Texas Instruments, Invesco, MSCI, Capital One, Equifax, Synchrony, Pultegroup, Danaher, Philip Morris, Sherwin-Williams, EQT, RTX, CoStar, Chubb, Intuitive Surgical, DR Horton, Interpublic, Baker Hughes, Enphase, Quest Diagnostics, IQVIA, Genuine Parts, KeyCorp
* UK finance minister Rachel Reeves testifies before House of Lords' Economic Affairs Committee
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(by Mike Dolan; editing by Timothy Heritage)