Padres at Marlins prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends, and stats for July 22
San Diego took the opener, 2-1, with both runs coming in the second inning off a Manny Machado double and Jackson Merrill single. The Padres are now 3-1 since the All-Star break, while Miami has dropped two straight and is 2-2 since the break.
Let's dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two. We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Padres at Marlins
Date: Tuesday, July 22, 2025
Time: 6:40PM EST
Site: LoanDepot Park
City: Miami, FL
Network/Streaming: SDPA, FDSNFL
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Padres at the Marlins
The latest odds as of Tuesday:
Moneyline: Padres (-109), Marlins (-109)
Spread: Marlins 1.5
Total: 8.0 runs
Probable starting pitchers for Padres at Marlins
Pitching matchup for July 22, 2025: Stephen Kolek vs. Edward Cabrera
Padres: Stephen Kolek, (3-4, 4.24 ERA)
Last outing: 5.1 Innings Pitched, 6 Earned Runs Allowed, 9 Hits Allowed, 1 Walk, and 2 StrikeoutsMarlins: Edward Cabrera, (3-4, 3.61 ERA)
Last outing: 4.0 Innings Pitched, 4 Earned Runs Allowed, 8 Hits Allowed, 0 Walks, and 6 Strikeouts
Padres: Stephen Kolek, (3-4, 4.24 ERA)
Last outing: 5.1 Innings Pitched, 6 Earned Runs Allowed, 9 Hits Allowed, 1 Walk, and 2 Strikeouts
Marlins: Edward Cabrera, (3-4, 3.61 ERA)
Last outing: 4.0 Innings Pitched, 4 Earned Runs Allowed, 8 Hits Allowed, 0 Walks, and 6 Strikeouts
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Expert picks & predictions for tonight's game between the Padres and the Marlins
'Looking at the second half of the year per Tankathon, San Diego has the 4th-easiest strength of schedule remaining
The Padres open the second-half with three games at the Nationals, three more at the Marlins, then to St. Louis for three more road games as part of a nine-game East Coast road trip. However, we have to admit, those are decent matchups to have a winning record across for a 9-game road trip — in other words, it could be much worse.
After that nine-game road trip, the next 27 games will be on the West Coast for San Diego, whether they are in California, Arizona or Washington (the state). San Diego will be in a prime position to make a run at the playoffs, but I still haven't gotten to the best part.
The final month of the season is a great opportunity for the Padres to gain ground too -- in the final 28 games -- 13 of those are against the Orioles, White Sox, and Rockies!
I love the Padres to make the postseason as a second-half futures bet.'
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday's game between the Padres and the Marlins:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the San Diego Padres on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Miami Marlins at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0.
Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC.
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Padres at Marlins
San Diego is 0-6 in Kolek's last six starts (4-8 overall)
Miami is 8-8 when Cabrera starts this season
The Padres have won 4 of their last 5 away games against teams with losing records
The Under is 30-21 in the Marlins' home games this season
The Padres have covered in 4 of their last 5 games showing a profit of 2.80 units
If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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