These strikes look like an Iranian escalation. They're likely the opposite
Eric Tlozek
, ABC
Members of the Mexican Association of Islamic Women and some Iranian women march to the Iranian Embassy in Mexico City.
Photo:
GERARDO VIEYRA/NurPhoto
Analysis -
Iran has decided to retaliate to the US attack on its nuclear sites with a symbolic and overtly telegraphed strike that has caused no casualties.
Iran gave advance notice that allowed the US base to be evacuated and Qatar's air defences to be prepared, with Patriot batteries in the Gulf state shooting down the Iranian missiles.
From the outset Iran specified that it didn't attack "the brotherly nation of Qatar", only the huge US base it hosts at Al Udeid.
In that, Iran may have misjudged Qatar.
It has a very different relationship with Qatar to the near-client state dominance it had over Iraq when it tried the same tactic there in 2020.
"We affirm that Qatar reserves the right to respond directly in a manner equivalent with the nature and scale of this brazen aggression, in line with international law," Qatar's government said.
Other Gulf states were similarly angry, with Saudi Arabia placing "all of its capabilities" at Qatar's disposal.
This is a huge step for a nation that eight years ago was reportedly considering invading its small neighbour (it instead imposed a three-year blockade, along with the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt).
Qatar carefully builds alliances and influence and maintains difficult relationships, even with Israel.
It will not appreciate Iran using it as a theatre for retaliation, even a symbolic one.
Iran may have thought it was demonstrating to Gulf nations that there is a price for hosting US troops, but instead it has angered the countries that had been restoring ties and condemning the US and Israeli strikes.
However, Iran appears to have correctly read the US in choosing this option of symbolic rather than escalatory retaliation - likely because it has done it before.
In 2020 Iran struck US bases in Iraq in retaliation for the US assassination of senior general Qassem Soleimani.
Iraq was given advance warning of the strikes, the Americans were ready (although many US personnel suffered blast trauma) and the US did not strike back.
By avoiding casualties among US personnel at Al Udeid - a criteria Trump gave early in this new conflict for preventing US retaliation - Iran is hoping to signal it doesn't want further conflict with the US.
The US looks like it is going to "take the win", as former president Joe Biden once said about an earlier round of Iranian strikes against Israel.
Iran is clearly looking for an off-ramp and the US wants them to return, significantly weakened, to nuclear control negotiations.
Nothing has so far dissuaded Israel, however, which is expanding its strikes to include Iranian military and security agencies that directly support the clerical regime.
The US might say it wants the conflict to end in negotiations, without regime change, but Israel has given no sign that it is ready to stop.
- ABC
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
RNZ News
2 days ago
- RNZ News
Trump says Israel has agreed to conditions to finalise 60-day Gaza ceasefire
US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House. Photo: SAUL LOEB / AFP President Donald Trump said on Tuesday (US time) Israel had agreed "to the necessary conditions to finalise" a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza during which efforts will be made to end the US ally's war in the Palestinian enclave. "Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War," Trump said on social media. "The Qataris and Egyptians, who have worked very hard to help bring Peace, will deliver this final proposal. I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better - IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE." More to come -Reuters
Scoop
2 days ago
- Scoop
Iran Crisis: UN Stays And Delivers
1 July 2025 'In the early morning hours of 13 June, a number of attacks took place in Tehran, and other parts of Iran,' said Stefan Priesner, UN Resident Coordinator in Iran. 'Then over the next 12 days there were multiple attacks by either side…we know that there have been at least 627 people killed and almost 5,000 injured in Iran. Underlining that the UN remained in Iran through the duration of the conflict, Mr. Priesner noted that discussions are ongoing with the Government on "how to adapt existing UN programmes to meet the country's post-conflict needs", he told journalists in Geneva via Zoom. Tehran insight Speaking from the Iranian capital, the UN official confirmed reports that Tehran had seen a population movement as several residents left the city seeking safety from the missile strikes. He mentioned the solidarity that Iranians had shown towards each other, with families in the north and the countryside hosting those coming from Tehran. Looking ahead, Mr. Priesner said ' we know that the health sector has very specific needs given the damage. ' The UN's development and humanitarian presence in Iran spans 18 agencies with approximately 50 international staff and 500 national staff. Last year's budget amounted to around $75 million with two-thirds dedicated to the country's roughly 3.5 million refugees or people in a refugee like situations. Iran has been hosting one of the largest – and most protracted – refugee situations in the world for over four decades with inclusive policies for example in the fields of access to health and education, and UN has supported these efforts over the years. The remainder of the budget is allocated for development projects including climate adaptation and mitigation work. Mr. Priesner said there was need for significant additional funding to support the most vulnerable groups in Iran including children, the elderly, female-headed households and persons with disabilities. The UN official confirmed reports that increasing numbers of Afghan refugees have been heading back to their country across the Iranian border either voluntarily or through deportation. According to the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, 36,100 Afghans returned on 26 June alone. The number of daily returns has continued to increase since 13 June, it said. ' Every day, and sometimes every few hours, buses arrive and stop at the Afghanistan-Iran border, carrying exhausted and desperate Afghan refugee families with all their belongings,' said Arafat Jamal, UNHCR Representative in Afghanistan. Afghanistan returnees' plight 'Many are returning to a country they barely know, forced out of Iran after decades of living there. The recent Israel-Iran war accelerated their return, pushing numbers to a record high, while deep funding cuts have made humanitarian aid operations increasingly challenging.' Having just returned from the Islam Qala border area, UNHCR Representative Arafat Jamal told UN News that the flow of people into Afghanistan has surged since the conflict, rising from around 5,000 daily crossings to a recent peak of nearly 30,000. The UNHCR official warned that Afghan returnees are arriving in an impoverished country that is unprepared to support them. Women and girls who had access to education and jobs in Iran now return to a country where 'extreme gender injustice' makes such opportunities impossible, he said.
RNZ News
2 days ago
- RNZ News
Satellite imagery reveals ongoing work at Iranian nuclear site bombed by US
By Tim Lister and Annoa Abekah-Mensah, CNN A satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies and dated 29 June shows an overview of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant complex. Photo: AFP New satellite images show continuing work at Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment plant, which was struck by US B-2 bombers just over a week ago. The imagery was collected by Maxar Technologies on Sunday. Maxar said it reveals "ongoing activity at and near the ventilation shafts and holes caused by last week's airstrikes on the Fordow fuel enrichment complex". The pictures show "an excavator and several personnel are positioned immediately next to the northern shaft on the ridge above the underground complex. The crane appears to be operating at the entrance to the shaft/hole." According to Maxar, several additional vehicles are also seen below the ridge and are parked along the path that was built to access the site. Earlier this month, American B-2 bombers dropped more than a dozen bunker-buster bombs on Iran's Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites, while Tomahawk missiles launched from a US submarine hit the Isfahan site in central Iran. A satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies and dated 29 June 2025 shows a close view of activity at the ventilation shaft at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant complex. Photo: AFP The US Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs targeted the two ventilation shafts at Fordow, according to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine. He told a Pentagon briefing last week that most of the bombs dropped at Fordow "were tasked to enter the main shaft, move down into the complex at greater than 1000 feet per second, and explode in the mission space". Former nuclear inspector David Albright, who now leads the Institute for Science and International Security, said that imagery from Fordow on Saturday showed "the Iranians are actively working at the two MOP impact sites penetrating the ventilation shafts" at the plant. Albright assessed that the activity "may include backfilling the craters, as well as conducting engineering damage assessments and likely radiological sampling. The craters above the main shafts remain open". "We have observed that the Iranians have also rapidly repaired the bomb cratering damage on the main entrance road from only a few days prior. However, there are yet no indications of any efforts to reopen any of the tunnel entrances," Albright posted on X. A satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies and dated 29 June 2025 shows a view of tunnel entrances at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant complex. Photo: AFP On Sunday, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog said US strikes on Iran fell short of causing total damage to its nuclear program and that Tehran could restart enriching uranium "in a matter of months", contradicting President Donald Trump's claims the US set Tehran's ambitions back by decades. The comments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi appear to support an early assessment from the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, first reported on by CNN, which suggests the United States' strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites last week did not destroy the core components of its nuclear program, and likely only set it back by months. While the final military and intelligence assessment has yet to come, Trump has repeatedly claimed to have "completely and totally obliterated" Tehran's nuclear program. - CNN
