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Newsweek
22 minutes ago
- Newsweek
A Real New Middle East Is Emerging
Advocates for ideas and draws conclusions based on the interpretation of facts and data. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. With the White House leading the charge to bring about a long-term ceasefire in Gaza, the return of the hostages, and following the cessation of open and direct conflict between Israel and Iran, there is hope for optimism in a region where pessimism is the default setting. Despite the heavy toll of the recent conflicts, a new geopolitical landscape is taking shape in the Middle East—one that holds the promise of lasting transformation. Call it cautious optimism, or even premature—but the signs are difficult to ignore. In many ways, Israel's confrontation with Iran, along with the war that began on October 7, marks a tectonic shift in Middle Eastern dynamics. It began with a fateful decision by Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' leader in Gaza—a decision that set off a cascade across the so-called axis of resistance. What seemed like an isolated, if brutal, escalation now looks more like the first domino in the unraveling of an entire regional alignment. President Donald Trump meets with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 4, 2025. President Donald Trump meets with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 4, 2025. ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images Even if the Islamic Republic of Iran remains intact, the aftermath of these conflicts will likely leave it severely weakened. Iran may emerge stripped of the vast arsenal it has invested in for decades—its nuclear program, its long-range missile capabilities, and its sprawling proxy networks in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Gaza, and Yemen. Trillions of dollars in regional influence may now be lost. For Israel, the immediate imperative is to bring the Gaza war to a close and secure the return of the hostages. But even that task is now shaped by a dramatically altered regional risk landscape. The deterrence equation has changed, as has Israel's room for strategic maneuvering. Far more significant, however, is the opportunity this moment presents for long-term realignment. The tectonic plates of the Middle East are shifting. The weakening of Iran and its allies creates space for an expanded circle of normalization. The Abraham Accords may soon include Saudi Arabia—and potentially even states long considered out of reach, like Syria and Lebanon. Deprived of Iranian sponsorship, Hezbollah may find itself facing a reckoning. Once a dominant destabilizing force, it will now have to recalibrate its role within Lebanon's fractured political system—perhaps even face pressure to disarm or integrate politically in ways it has long resisted. Should the ultimate turning point occur—if the Iranian regime were to collapse and be replaced by a fundamentally different leadership—Iran itself could reenter the regional stage, not as a spoiler, but as a potential partner in a new, post-theocratic era. In such a scenario, Israel would find itself in a position never before imagined: fully integrated into the region, not only diplomatically but economically. Trade, infrastructure, and innovation partnerships could stretch from the mountains of Afghanistan to the beaches of Tel Aviv. One need only imagine the economic potential of such a corridor. And what of the Palestinians? The hardline factions, stripped of external backing, would be isolated. For the rest, a long-term interim arrangement offering full political autonomy and semi-sovereignty, and guaranteed civil rights could become the most realistic path forward. In such a regional climate, the possibility of Palestinian prosperity—alongside Israeli, Saudi, Emirati, and even Iranian growth—would no longer be a fantasy. This is not naïve utopianism. It is a recognition that sometimes, out of protracted conflict, new possibilities arise. The Middle East has been here before and squandered such moments. But this time, perhaps, the pieces are falling into place for something more durable. Dr. Shuki Friedman is the director-general of the Jewish People Policy Institute and a senior lecturer in law at the Peres Academic Center. He is former chairman of the Israeli government committee on the Iran sanctions, and headed the international and foreign law department of the Israeli Prime Minister's Office. The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Europe's Billionaires Are Bending to Trump--Here's Why Investors Should Pay Attention
With Donald Trump's July 9 tariff deadline approaching, pressure is mountingnot just in Brussels, but in boardrooms across Europe. Automakers like Mercedes-Benz (MBGAF), BMW (BMWKY), and Volkswagen (VWAGY) have been quietly flying executives to Washington, lobbying U.S. officials directly and proposing their own peace terms to head off a potential 50% tariff on European exports. Luxury powerhouses like LVMH (LVMUY) and pharmaceutical giants like Sanofi have joined in, signaling a clear shift: many of Europe's biggest companies are no longer aligned with the EU's hardline approach. Behind the scenes, they're urging Brussels to cut a quick deal and scale back retaliatory measures, including removing high-profile U.S. products like bourbon from any counter-tariff list. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Sign with MBGAF. What's driving this sudden corporate detente? Profitsand survival. European companies generate wide margins in the U.S. and rely heavily on American technology, suppliers, and research partnerships. A retaliatory tariff packageinitially floated at 95 billionhas already been softened by member state requests that could slash it by nearly 70 billion. Lobby groups representing sectors from medical devices to spirits warn that hitting back at the U.S. would hurt European firms just as much, if not more. If the EU retaliates, the sector is hit twice, said MedTech Europe CEO Oliver Bisazza. That fear has flipped the script, with industries now pressing Brussels to de-escalate, even if it means swallowing a flat 10% tariff and lobbying for carve-outs in key sectors like pharma, semiconductors, and aerospace. But this fractured front comes at a delicate time for the EU. With domestic demand weakening, China gaining ground, and energy costs still elevated post-Ukraine, the U.S. market is more important than ever. Brussels wants to preserve unity, but member states are growing impatient. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has openly criticized the Commission's slow, complex process and called for speed over perfection. LVMH Chairman Bernard Arnault has gone furtheractivating long-standing ties with Trump and making personal trips to Washington to promote a calmer path. His message? In this geopolitical chess match, compromise could be the smartest move Europe has left. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Axios
43 minutes ago
- Axios
U.S. plans nuclear talks with Iran in Oslo next week
White House envoy Steve Witkoff is planning to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. Why it matters: The sources said a final date hasn't been set, and neither country has publicly confirmed the meeting. But if it happens, it would mark the first direct talks since President Trump ordered an unprecedented military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities last month. "We have no travel announcements at this time," a White House official told Axios. The Iranian mission to the UN declined to comment. Behind the scenes: Witkoff and Araghchi have been in direct contact during and since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, which ended in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, according to the sources. Omani and Qatari officials have also been involved in mediating between the two sides. In the immediate aftermath of the war, the Iranians were reluctant to engage with the U.S., but that position has gradually softened. Israel's Channel 12 was the first to report on the planned meeting. What to watch: A key issue in any future talks will be Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which includes 400 kilograms enriched to 60%. Israeli and U.S. officials say the material is currently "sealed off from the outside world" inside the three nuclear sites attacked during the joint strikes: the enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, and the underground tunnels at the Isfahan site. Iran is unable to access the stockpile for now due to damage from the strikes, but it could be recovered once the rubble is cleared. State of play: Iran announced earlier this week that it has begun implementing a new law passed by parliament that suspends all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Araghchi wrote on X Thursday that Iran remains committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and its Safeguards Agreement. "In accordance with the new legislation by [parliament], sparked by the unlawful attacks against our nuclear facilities by Israel and the U.S., our cooperation with the IAEA will be channeled through Iran's Supreme National Security Council for obvious safety and security reasons," he wrote.
