Russian Expert Kortunov: 'Israel-Iran Confrontation Is, To Some Extent, Even Beneficial To Russia'

Memri

18-06-2025

In an article for the Russian media outlet Kommersant, titled "Middle East Challenges for Moscow," Russian political scientist and Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Andrei Kortunov examines the broader strategic implications of the Israel-Iran conflict for Russia, arguing that the situation presents many opportunities for Moscow while being fraught with serious risks.
Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), political scientist Andrei Vadimovich Kortunov (Source: "Dialog" public organization)
Following is Kortunov's article:[1]
"Any Escalation In The Middle East Region Will Automatically Lead To An Increase In World Prices For Hydrocarbons, Including Russian Ones"
"If one were to set aside humanitarian considerations and start to reason extremely cynically, then one could assume that a new round of Israeli-Iranian confrontation is, to some extent, even beneficial for Russia.
"First, it is obvious that any escalation in the Middle East region will automatically lead to an increase in world prices for hydrocarbons, including Russian ones.
"The larger the scale of the hostilities – which may even include a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran – the higher the global demand for Russian oil and gas will be.
"Second, any Middle East escalation diverts the attention of Moscow's adversaries from the Ukrainian issue and changes the priorities of Western military aid programs.
"It is not difficult to predict the intensification of disagreements regarding the Middle Eastern agenda between the United States and its European allies, which again meets Russia's interests.
"Third, considering our allied relations with Tehran, Russia could theoretically act as an impartial mediator between the conflicting parties, helping to de-escalate the crisis, if not resolve it. In doing so, Moscow would strengthen its influence in the region after the fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar Al-Assad."
"Hope That The Differentiation In Assessments Of Israel's Actions Will Not Provoke An Acute Crisis In Russo-U.S. Relations"
"However, the ongoing escalation also carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow.
"The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a large-scale Israeli strike against a state with which it signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement five months ago. Moscow is clearly not prepared to provide Iran with military assistance, though not limiting its political statements condemning Israel's actions.
"Furthermore, the escalation in the Middle East is fraught with additional difficulties in the dialogue with the U.S. Vladimir Putin condemned the Israeli actions, wherein Donald Trump supported them, although without confirming Washington's involvement.
"One can only hope that the differentiation in assessments of Israel's actions will not provoke an acute crisis in Russo-U.S. relations, considering that Putin and Trump have plenty of other hot topics to discuss.
"In the long term, the risks for Moscow can only grow, provided that Israel's main goal is not to curb Iran's nuclear program or even to change Iran's regional behavior, but to change the political regime in the country. [The country's] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated this goal in his June 14 address to the Iranian nation. Such a prospect is fraught with a new threat to the Kremlin, as a change in the political orientation of the current Iranian government, provided it happens one day, could make Tehran less favorable towards Moscow. Fortunately for Iran's international partners, Israel ambitious goal looks unattainable for now.
"If the Iranian regime is destined to collapse, it will only happen as a result of deepening contradictions and conflicts within the ruling elite and society. However, the margin of safety of the Islamic Republic's institutions remains very large. What's more, Israel's actions at the current stage will only contribute to the consolidation of authorities and society."