Israeli-American hostage's parents push for his body to be returned home
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Chicago Tribune
a minute ago
- Chicago Tribune
Robert A. Pape: To prevent nuclear war in the Middle East, America needs to change its nuclear doctrine
The world is moving closer to the brink of nuclear war in alarming ways that are more dangerous and harder to anticipate than during the Cold War. The famous 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis was a harrowing near miss, but today's nuclear dangers are more complex. This is due to a variety of factors, particularly coming together in the Middle East: increasing tensions across the region, growing risks of nuclear proliferation, and now perils of surprise military attack during crises involving states with nuclear weapons or on the cusp of nuclear weapons. Israel's recent 12-day war against Iran is a harbinger of potentially growing nuclear dangers to come. For the first time in history, two nuclear armed states — Israel and the United States — bombed a state, Iran, with a major nuclear program that many believe is on the threshold of acquiring all the physical and technical capacities necessary to produce nuclear weapons within a matter of months. For sure, the 12-day war involved a series of attacks and counterattacks that were terrifying to live through, and there was great relief when they came to an end. However, the future is even more concerning. First, Israeli and American bombing did not obliterate Iran's nuclear program, as President Donald Trump astonishingly declared before he received bomb damage assessments. As is now widely agreed among U.S. defense intelligence, Israeli intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan did not eliminate Iran's stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Although uncertainly remains about Iran's next steps, there is little doubt that Iran could attempt to produce a 'crude' bomb in a matter of months. And it is important to understand, a 'crude' bomb means a Hiroshima-style weapon that could lead to the deaths of 80,000 people from the immediate effects of the blast. Second, future information about Iran's nuclear program is fraught with high degrees of uncertainty. From the beginning, Iran has allowed IAEA inspectors to have tremendous access to monitor its nuclear enrichment program. True, these inspections have fluctuated over time and have never been as fully comprehensive as many would have liked. However, for decades, the quarterly IAEA reports have been crucial for high confidence assessments about the scale of Iran's enrichment program and whether vast amounts of enriched uranium have not been siphoned off to develop nuclear weapons. Now, Iran has reportedly banned IAEA inspectors from its nuclear facilities, and the fear and suspicion about a surprise nuclear breakout will grow over time. Third, and most important, the 12-day war shows that the fear of surprise attack is now fully justified. It is important to recall that the war started June 13 with a stunning, Pearl Harbor-like surprise attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear sites. Israel's bolt-from-the-blue strike occurred without warning and while Iranian negotiators were preparing to meet with their American counterparts just days later. Given these events, Israel, the United States and Iran now face the specter of one of the most terrifying scenarios for nuclear war: the 'reciprocal fear of surprise attack.' That's a situation in which both sides of a potential conflict fear being attacked first, leading them to consider — and possibly launch — a preemptive strike to avoid being caught off guard. The most worrisome aspect is that striking first in these circumstances has an element of rationality. If one side thinks the other is preparing for a surprise attack, then attacking first, even if it carries risks, may be the best way to reduce one's own losses. Of course, nuclear war is so horrible that the reciprocal fear of surprise attack may never lead to an actual outbreak of war. If so, then the prospect of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons would not be a problem in the first place. Alas, we need to take this danger seriously. What can be done? Although there are no perfect solutions to the reciprocal fear of surprise attack, there is one step that would significantly matter: For the United States, Iran and Israel to declare that they would never be the first to use nuclear weapons in a crisis involving Iran. The general idea of 'no first use' pledges, as they are called, arose during the Cold War, but the United States has never been willing to make such a promise. At the time, this was thought of in the context of the U.S., Europe and Soviet contest in which America needed the implicit threat of the first use of nuclear weapons to offset the Soviet conventional military threat to U.S. nonnuclear European allies. The Middle East is clearly different. America's main ally, Israel, is a powerful nuclear weapons state and so does not rely on U.S. nuclear weapons to deter attacks on its homeland. For the United States, Israel and Iran to agree a limited no-first-use policy would not end the tensions over Iran's nuclear program. However, it would energize negotiations and avoid some of the worst ways that a nuclear war could inadvertently occur. The Nobel Laureate Assembly to Prevent Nuclear War taking place at the University of Chicago recently was a perfect place to begin a national conversation about the value of adapting U.S. nuclear doctrine to today's realities in the Middle East. If this assembly of the most brilliant minds on the planet could recommend this historic step in which the U.S., Iran and Israel each pledge they would not be the first to use nuclear weapons in the dispute involving Iran's nuclear program, this would be a meaningful step toward preventing nuclear war in one of the most dangerous regions in the world.
Hamilton Spectator
an hour ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Israel orders evacuations in central Gaza as ceasefire talks stall and military offensive widens
DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP) — The Israeli military published new evacuation warnings for areas of central Gaza on Sunday, in one of the few areas the military has rarely operated with ground troops. The evacuation cuts access between the city of Deir al-Balah and the southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis in the narrow enclave. The announcement comes as Israel and Hamas have been holding ceasefire talks in Qatar, but international mediators say there have been no breakthroughs. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed that expanding Israeli military operations in Gaza will pressure Hamas to negotiate, though negotiations have been stalled for months. The area of Gaza under the evacuation order is also where many international organizations attempting to distribute aid are located. The organizations did not immediately comment on the evacuation warnings. Military spokesman Avichay Adraee warned that the military will attack 'with intensity' against militants. He called for residents, including those sheltering in tents, to head to the Muwasi area, a desolate tent camp on Gaza's southern shore that the Israeli military has designated a humanitarian zone. Gaza's population of more than 2 million Palestinians are in a catastrophic humanitarian crisis . Hamas triggered the 21-month war when militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 others hostage. Fifty remain, but fewer than half are thought to be alive. Israel's military offensive that followed has killed more than 58,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which doesn't say how many militants are among the dead but says more than half of the dead have been women and children. The ministry is part of the Hamas government but the U.N. and other international organizations see it as the most reliable source of data on casualties. The Hostages Family Forum, a grassroots organization that represents many of the families of hostages, condemned the evacuation announcement and demanded that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli military explain what they hope to accomplish in the area of central Gaza, accusing Israel of operating without a clear war plan. 'Enough! The Israeli people overwhelmingly want an end to the fighting and a comprehensive agreement that will return all of the hostages,' the forum said. On Saturday night, during the weekly protest, tens of thousands of protesters marched in Tel Aviv, demonstrating for an end to the war. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Israel issues new Gaza evacuation orders as military offensive widens
The Israeli military has published new evacuation warnings for parts of central Gaza, in one of the few areas the military has rarely operated with ground troops. The evacuation cuts access between the city of Deir al-Balah and the southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis in the narrow enclave. The announcement comes as Israel and Hamas have been holding ceasefire talks in Qatar, but international mediators say there have been no breakthroughs. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed that expanding military operations in Gaza will pressure Hamas to negotiate, though negotiations have been stalled for months. The area of Gaza under the evacuation order is also where many international organisations attempting to distribute aid are located. Military spokesman Avichay Adraee warned the military will attack 'with intensity' against militants. He called for residents, including those sheltering in tents, to head to the Muwasi area, a desolate tent camp on Gaza's southern shore that the Israeli military has designated a humanitarian zone. Gaza's population of more than two million Palestinians are in a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Hamas triggered the 21-month war when militants stormed into southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 others hostage. Fifty hostages remain, but fewer than half are thought to be alive. Israel's military offensive that followed has killed more than 58,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. It does not say how many militants are among the dead but says more than half of those killed have been women and children. The ministry is part of the Hamas government but the UN and other international organisations see it as the most reliable source of data on casualties. The Hostages Family Forum, a grassroots organisation that represents many of the families of hostages, condemned the evacuation announcement and demanded that Mr Netanyahu and the Israeli military explain what they hope to accomplish in the area of central Gaza, accusing Israel of operating without a clear war plan. It said: 'Enough. The Israeli people overwhelmingly want an end to the fighting and a comprehensive agreement that will return all of the hostages.' On Saturday night, tens of thousands of protesters once again marched in Tel Aviv to call for an end to the war.
