Haiti's volatile capital is in a free fall. Here's what its collapse could look like

Miami Herald

24-03-2025

For months, Haiti's criminal gangs have been pushing the country's capital further into chaos, forcing the shutdown of public offices and schools and sending tens of thousands of people under a hail of gunfire into soiled makeshift camps with no potable water, no latrines and no hope.
Avenue John Brown, one of three main roads that connect downtown Port-au-Prince to affluent Pétion-Ville, was once a scene of teeming street merchants and bumper-to-bumper traffic. Now, its lower reaches have been transformed into heaps of destruction as residents and businesses flee the historical downtown area, and police try to resist the onslaught of the heavily armed gunmen.
The situation is critical in downtown Port-au-Prince, where gangs have been fighting to secure control over the neighborhoods of Canapé-Vert and Pacot. Control of the residential communities and others nearby would put gangs within reach of Pétion-Ville and allow them to further control the region's key resources.
From Carrefour Feuilles and Christ-Roi to Nazon and Delmas, Haiti's most powerful warlords have been circling. They've divided the capital, each taking a corner as part of their recent territorial gains — Izo, Ti Lapli in the south; Chen Mechan and Jeff Canaan in the north, Lanmo SanJou and Vitel'homme in the east. Members of the powerful Viv Ansanm gang coalition, all have been closing the gap ever since an attack in the once peaceful mountainside of Kenscoff in late January created a security lapse that left key Port-au-Prince neighborhoods unprotected and vulnerable to attack.
With dozens of roads, including many leading to the main international airport, now in gang territory, the encircling of the capital is leaving just one question: How long can Haiti's ill-equipped national police and small military, along with the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission, resist the siege before Port-au-Prince or Pétion-Ville collapses?
Compounding the problem, the Trump administration, which has an ongoing ban on U.S. flights landing in the capital, is canceling immigration protections and work permits as of Tuesday for over 200,000 Haitians in the U.S. and asking them to self-deport home.
'The situation is full of uncertainties, but morbid symptoms are everywhere,' said Robert Fatton, a retired Haiti-born professor of political science and longtime watcher of his country's cycle of crises. 'This is a calamity. From abroad it looks like the country is simply falling into the abyss, but I am not sure what Haitians in Haiti will or can do to stop this fall.'
The pivotal moment, several police officers told the Miami Herald, came when police failed to heed the warnings of a pending attack on Kenscoff, and police responded by redeploying five armored vehicles from downtown up the hillside to reinforce the area's rural hamlets. The vehicles had been strategically stationed to prevent the neighborhoods from falling into gang hands. The removal of the vehicles, coupled with the loss of three additional armored vehicles, created the opening that has allowed gangs in recent weeks to launch simultaneous attacks and control access in and out of the metropolitan area.
Now gangs have seized control of the last open road through the mountains to the south, the southeast, Nippes and Grand-Anse, trapping the capital's four million people, and are moving closer to Pétion-Ville.
The gangs' recent expansion into Nazon and Delmas 30, which puts them within striking distance of the headquarters of one of the country's biggest banks, along with Delmas 19, located less than a mile from the government-owned Radio Television Nationale d'Haiti, is also causing alarms. Any further expansion into Delmas, for example, could lead to a closure of the airspace because air traffic controllers and airport employees would no longer be able to safely commute to work.
This is not the first time Port-au-Prince has been on the brink of falling into the hands of Viv Ansanm. But it's the closest it's been.
Last year as gang leaders united under the Viv Ansanm banner and launched simultaneous attacks across the capital in effort to bring down the government, the U.S. and the Caribbean Community intervened. They forced the ouster of the prime minister and helped Haitians put in place a new transition to restore security and pave the way to elections.
A year later, neither has occurred. The transition has been marred by ongoing disagreements, political tensions, infighting and what security experts describe as a lack of a cohesive strategy for fighting the gangs. Today, areas once considered safe two months ago are now empty or blocked by barricades.
Joint operations between the Kenya-led force and police have forced gang members to retreat in some areas. But security analysts are warning that without long-term police presence, gangs may reoccupy vacated areas.
Last month, a government task force began dropping explosive drones in gangs' strongholds. But the attacks haven't neutralized the gangs.
'As armed groups expand their control, government institutions have retreated, leaving critical infrastructure unprotected,' Halo Solutions Firm S.A., said in its most recent weekly report on Haiti's security situation. 'More than 50 official buildings, including ministries, courts, port facilities, schools, and other strategic institutions, have been vacated, signaling a significant decline in state authority over the capital.'
This is most noticeable around the Champ-de-Mars, the public square across from the presidential palace and defense ministry. Last week government offices in the area were told to remove computers and other valuables. Elsewhere, banks and private firms were frantically making calls trying to relocate to houses and hotel rooms in Petion-Ville.
What the fall of the capital would mean
So what would the fall of Port-au-Prince look like? Most experts in and out of Haiti say the embattled nine-member Transitional Presidential Council would no longer be able to function, and the gangs would take over the symbols of power. These include the offices of the country's beleaguered transitional authorities and the National Palace, and Pétion-Ville either on the verge of collapse or invaded by armed groups.
'A clear sign would be the closing of the American embassy and the departure of the presidential council and prime minister,' said Fatton.
The fighting has already temporarily shuttered the doors of the French embassy, and is moving closer to Canada's embassy in Delmas 75. The violence also is but a few miles from the Villa d'Accueil in Musseau, where the offices of the ruling council are located.
The presidential council, already weakened and with its claim to legitimacy dwindling, would certainly lose power in a collapse. Can it become a government in exile if it functions from Cap-Haïtien, the northern port city where the staff of some international institutions have been fleeing?
'What will the U.S. do? It does not look like Washington has a plan. Perhaps negotiations may occur between the presidential council and the gangs to avoid a bloodbath,' Fatton said.
The United States appears to have no current no Haiti policy. The Dominican Republic, Haiti's closest neighbor, has reinforced its land border with its military and recently designated more than a dozen Haitian gangs as 'terrorist organizations.' The move has raised concerns about whether Haiti's neighbor would deploy troops on Haitian soil if there's a takeover of the country by the gangs.