Mineral desire: Moscow has enough to satisfy India
Once a frozen frontier, the Arctic is rapidly transforming into a geopolitical and geoeconomic focal point. Melting ice is exposing vast reserves of critical minerals, hydrocarbons, and strategic shipping routes. As the West advances through NATO's northern reach, a sanctioned Russia is turning to trusted partners to unlock its Arctic potential.
For India, this shift offers a rare strategic opportunity. With rising energy needs, critical mineral ambitions, and a desire for multipolar engagement, India can enter the Arctic not as a competitor, but as a partner to Russia, guardian of over half the Arctic coastline and its richest untapped resources.
India's pursuit of energy security and cleaner fuels finds a strategic match in Russia's Arctic LNG (liquefied natural gas) ambitions. While Yamal LNG has proven operationally successful, the Arctic LNG-2 project, long hindered by Western sanctions, now stands at a potential turning point. The renewed thaw in US-Russia relations following Donald Trump's second term, as noted by Oxford Energy, has opened possibilities for easing restrictions on key Arctic energy assets.
For India, this shifting landscape offers a timely opportunity to deepen its role in Russia's polar pivot, by investing in Arctic LNG infrastructure, securing long-term gas supplies, and positioning itself as a critical partner in shaping the emerging Arctic order.
The Yamal LNG facility, operating at 20% above capacity since 2023, has firmly anchored Russia's Arctic presence, producing over 100 million tonnes of LNG since 2017. For India, this has translated into energy security gains, with GAIL securing long-term contracts for 2.85 MTPA through Gazprom Marketing & Trading Singapore. Despite EU restrictions on transshipment, deliveries continue uninterrupted, aligning with India's strategy of diversifying supply sources to hedge against global volatility and fuel its gas-based economy.
Yet the real test lies in Arctic LNG-2. Once 59% complete in 2021, the project stalled under heavy Western sanctions. By 2025, only limited operations resumed. India has maintained official distance, but quiet negotiations persist as Russia courts Indian buyers with steep discounts and DES (Delivered Ex-Ship) terms, mirroring its crude oil outreach. The recent easing of US-Russia tensions after Trump's re-election offers a potential breakthrough: if secondary sanctions are lifted, Indian firms may finally step in, unlocking a significant Arctic energy axis.
India's Arctic engagement also aligns with its 'Act Far East' policy and 2022 Arctic policy. ONGC Videsh's $8.4 billion legacy in Sakhalin and Vankorneft provides operational experience and political capital that could be redeployed in the Arctic, though harsher environments and geopolitical stakes differ sharply.
As Russia aims to capture 20% of global LNG exports by 2030, India's energy calculus must adapt. For New Delhi, the Arctic offers more than LNG, it's a new corridor linking Russian resources with India's infrastructure and strategic aspirations.
As Russia pivots to the Arctic amid Western sanctions, India finds strategic opportunity in emerging polar logistics. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), offering a 40% shorter passage than the Suez Canal and cutting transit time by 16 days, is becoming central to Indo-Russian Arctic cooperation. In 2023, NSR cargo traffic hit a record 36.254 million tonnes, with Moscow targeting 200 million tonnes by 2030. India's growing stake is evident, by early 2023, it accounted for 35% of cargo at Russia's Murmansk port, largely driven by rising coal imports.
Complementing this is the Chennai–Vladivostok Maritime Corridor (EMC), launched in late 2024, which directly links India's eastern seaboard to Russia's Arctic gateway. Trade along the EMC has surged as coal shipments rose 87% and crude oil by 48% in FY 2024–25. This corridor not only facilitates India's access to Russia's vast Arctic and Far East resources but also strengthens its maritime footprint. India is positioning its ports and shipyards as vital nodes in Arctic logistics, proposing joint production of $750 million worth of Russian icebreakers. Together, the NSR and EMC mark India's emergence as a serious player in Arctic connectivity, where geoeconomics and strategy now converge.
Russia's Arctic frontier, stretching across the Kola Peninsula, Norilsk, and Yakutia, is a treasure trove of critical minerals vital for India's green and digital ambitions. The Kolmozerskoye deposit holds nearly 19% of Russia's lithium reserves, Lovozerskoye is the country's largest rare-earth element (REE) source, and Norilsk supplies over 40% of global palladium. Backed by state giants like Rosatom and Nornickel, Russia is fast-tracking development. Nornickel plans to triple cobalt output to 3,000 tonnes annually by 2025, while Rosatom's Polar Lithium JV prepares to exploit Kolmozerskoye's lithium for global markets.
For India, dependent on imports for 100% of its lithium, cobalt, and nickel, access to these resources is a strategic imperative. With China dominating 60–90% of global critical mineral supply chains, Russia offers India a rare diversification opportunity. Ambassador Denis Alipov has highlighted mutual interests in Arctic mineral cooperation. India's $15 billion investment in oil and gas projects in Russia, and the Chennai–Vladivostok Maritime Corridor, operational since 2024, lay the groundwork for secure logistics and collaborative mining ventures.
Russia's Arctic holds an estimated 658 million tonnes of rare metals, including 29 million tonnes of REEs, crucial for India's EVs, renewables, and defence technologies. India is also eyeing technology transfer for processing projects like Tomtor, the world's third-largest REE deposit. A proposed Centre of Excellence on Critical Minerals could partner with Russian institutes such as Gipronickel Institute to advance extraction methods.
Though Western sanctions complicate financing, India's 2030 target of $100 billion in bilateral trade provides a framework for structured deals. For India, Arctic minerals are not just economic assets, they are pillars of strategic autonomy. By anchoring itself in Russia's resource-rich, sanction-insulated Arctic, India can strengthen its supply chains, hasten its green transition, and reduce dependence on China, all while asserting influence in a rapidly evolving polar landscape.
India's Arctic engagement extends beyond economics, grounded in scientific inquiry and climate diplomacy. Since gaining Observer status in the Arctic Council in 2013, India has actively contributed to initiatives like the Arctic Migratory Birds Initiative and the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna Working Group. Its most prominent scientific asset is the Himadri Research Station in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, operational since 2008 and managed by the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR).
Himadri supports year-round studies on glaciology, ocean-atmosphere interactions, and the Arctic's impact on the Indian monsoon, with over 200 Indian scientists participating in research missions.
India's capabilities offer scope for deeper collaboration with Russia, especially through space-based technologies. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), using its Cartosat and RISAT satellites, can aid in Arctic mapping, environmental monitoring, and tracking activity along the NSR.
India and Russia's longstanding space partnership, dating back to their first agreement in 1962, offers untapped potential for Arctic collaboration in energy, shipping, and strategic monitoring. While current Arctic-specific projects remain limited, future joint space applications could enhance maritime domain awareness and infrastructure development in the polar region.
India's Arctic push is a strategic leap, linking energy security, mineral access, and scientific strength with Russia's resource-rich north. As the Arctic reshapes global power corridors, India is no longer a bystander but a rising stakeholder. With logistics in place and a $100 billion trade vision, the polar frontier offers India more than resources, it offers resilience. In the ice of the Arctic, India finds new ground for strategic autonomy.
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Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's defiance of economic orthodoxy – slashing interest rates amid soaring inflation – ignited a lira freefall and an inflation inferno, proving that fighting fire with gasoline burns fast and deep. Flouting economic fundamentals in a policy blitz can precipitate a swift downfall – U.K. prime minister Liz Truss's radical push for large unfunded tax cuts shattered market trust in the economic competency and policies of her government and sent her premiership crashing in just 44 days. At the end, we may ask, 'Was this the rise of a colossus – or the long prologue to a fall?' Trump embodies the quintessential American can-do spirit – the very driving force that vaulted the land of opportunity to global preeminence, drawing the best and brightest for generations. Yet unchecked strength in excess – untempered by moderation, prudence, or equity – becomes weakness that, if uncorrected and compounded by other flaws, engenders derailment. Trump's impulsiveness and unpredictability, personalized rule, disregard for diplomatic balance, and penchant for undercutting institutions evoke not Bismarck's cautious statecraft, but the apparent reckless self-sabotage of Wilhelm II – reportedly a mercurial man whose very excesses and volatility ensured he would be Germany's last emperor. Never forget: every choice carries a price – nothing comes without a cost. If you lean toward the ominous and sinister, consider this chilling conspiracy theory: Trump may have been elevated not to succeed, but to fail – spectacularly. His rise may have been engineered as a political vaccine, paving the way for a calculated liberal restoration, swiftly reversing his agenda and quietly entrenching progressive rule over countless electoral cycles. By similar conspiratorial logic, Hitler's ascent to absolute power could be seen as a dark gambit – to inoculate the German people against authoritarianism, militant nationalism, and anti-Judaism, and to catalyze the creation of Israel. Both, perhaps, were dialectical masterstrokes – premeditated catharses, with doomed, fateful figureheads cast as sacrifices to reshape history through fire. Even in his unhinged state, Trump could still, in theory, learn from past missteps and change course – but the odds are vanishingly slim. His five fatal flaws are poised to seal his fate. As Oscar Wilde observed, 'All great men are gifted with destruction.' The Apprentice star seemed to have peaked on the first day in office; his undoing may take multiple forms, each varying in drama and pace. Trump might come down 'not with a bang but a whimper,' reduced to a lame-duck after a midterm humiliation of his party. More spectacular exits include second-term impeachment or post-presidency criminal conviction. Or perhaps no rupture at all – just a legacy of failure, etched in history not for triumph, but for squandered power. To conclude, Donald Trump is such stuff as tragedies are made on. The man can be compared to the typical protagonist in classical Attic tragedy – not a pure hero or a true villain, but a flawed, elevated figure, whose all-too-human weaknesses drive his fall, echoing the narrative arc of classical Attic tragedy. Inspiring pity through his suffering and fear that his fate could be ours, the tragic hero typically begins noble and strong, but caught in a web of dark forces and blinded by pride or misled by a fateful error, engineers his own downfall – seeing clearly and recognizing the truth only when it is too late. Longfellow's apt warning echoes like a tragic chorus: 'Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.'
