Over before a single vote cast? Redistribution, turnout, and political shifts played role in Niagara South flip

Hamilton Spectator

12-05-2025

A combination of electoral boundary changes, higher turnout, and a collapse in third-party support helped Conservative Fred Davies defeat Liberal incumbent Vance Badawey in Niagara South during the April 28 federal election.
Davies, a Niagara Region councillor for Port Colborne, won 47.8 per cent of the vote, compared to Badawey's 43.9 per cent, according to
Elections Canada validated results
.
The result marks a significant political shift in a riding that had leaned Liberal for nearly a decade. But analysts say the change may have occurred before a single vote was cast.
The new Niagara South riding was created during the 2022 federal redistribution. It absorbed Fort Erie from the Niagara Falls riding, and ceded parts of St. Catharines, replacing more progressive areas with Conservative-leaning territory.
'In the 2021 election, Conservatives actually would have won Niagara South on its current boundaries by around 300 votes,' said EKOS political analyst Earl Washburn.
'Adding (Fort Erie) to the riding made it significantly more Conservative. It basically flipped the riding without an election even happening.'
Fort Erie leaned strongly Conservative in 2021, while parts of St. Catharines, now removed, had supported the Liberals and NDP. That left Badawey, who held the former Niagara Centre since 2015, starting the race behind.
Washburn said Davies also benefited from a dramatic collapse in support for both the NDP and the People's Party of Canada.
In 2021, the NDP received about 25 per cent of the vote in Niagara Centre. In 2025, that number fell to just over five per cent, with NDP candidate Chantal McCollum raking in 5.61 per cent of the vote in the riding.
'That NDP vote, most of it looked like it went Liberal, but a little bit probably went Conservative,' Washburn said. 'And the People's Party vote? That probably just all went Conservative.'
He noted many PPC voters had been new to federal politics in 2019, galvanized by pandemic-era rhetoric, and remained engaged under Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
'In 2021, it was the pandemic,' he said. 'Those (voters), for lack of a better term, were in echo chambers and they're bubbles right? That kept their momentum.'
This consolidation on the right helped Davies edge ahead in a newly redrawn, politically volatile riding.
'When the People's Party shed out, and when Poilievre became Conservative leader, those people flocked to him, because he's the kind of (candidate) that would appeal to them.'
According to Elections Canada, the election saw a voter turn out rate of 68.65 per cent. This translates to the highest voter turnout rate in 30 years.
Washburn believes the higher participation likely helped the Conservatives in ridings like Niagara South.
'You kind of saw that in 2021,' he said. 'I think you're getting a lot of new voters that were vying for the People's Party in 2021. So those people definitely came out and voted again but they didn't vote PPC, they went Conservative.'
Elections Canada won't be releasing poll-by-poll results for several months but Washburn noted that early trends suggest Fort Erie voted heavily Conservative, while Welland and parts of St. Catharines leaned NDP or Liberal. Port Colborne, hometown to both Davies and Badawey, appeared to split its support.
'Then you have Port Colborne, that's a bit of a mix,' he said. 'Of course both candidates are from (Port Colborne) so who knows how that broke out, just based on their own personal popularity.'
Davies will now represent a diverse district that includes Fort Erie, Welland, Thorold, and Port Colborne. His long-standing regional profile and focus on local issues may have helped him appeal to voters looking for a change with a familiar face.
The newly drawn Niagara South riding stands as a case study in how redistribution, voter turnout, and partisan realignment can reshape electoral outcomes.
Elections Canada will release poll-by-poll results and data in the coming weeks.