When will Memphis get relief from the heat? What fall forecast predicts for the Mid-South

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25-07-2025

Much of the Mid-South has been under a heat wave that seems to have no end in sight. Unfortunately, fall is not predicted to cool us off much.
According to predictions from the Old Farmer's Almanac, the entire Southern United States region is expected to experience a warm, dry fall in 2025. Last year, the area saw above-average temperatures with slightly above-average precipitation.
In Memphis, 2024 brought above-average temperatures in October and November by about 4 to 6 degrees. The fall months of September, October, and November also saw higher-than-normal rainfall.
August in the Mid-South is expected to be near normal, with an equal chance of being slightly above or slightly below average temperatures.
Here's when Memphis can expect to see some relief from the heat.
Memphis heat wave will continue through next week
Memphis and most of the Mid-South are expected to see heat indices in the 100s through July 31. The maximum heat index for the Mid-South ranges between 109 degrees and 116 degrees.
Here are the maximum heat indices for Memphis through next week:
July 25: 106 degrees
July 26: 105 degrees
July 27: 109 degrees
July 28: 110 degrees
July 29: 114 degrees
July 30: 113 degrees
July 31: 107 degrees
August 1: 98 degrees
More: Dangerous heat' will continue next week. 5 ways to stay cool
When is the first day of fall?
The first day of fall can be debated, depending on whether you follow the astrological date or the meteorological date.
Fall officially begins on Sept. 22, based on the astrological calendar and the autumn equinox. The astrological date is based on the position of the sun in relation to the Earth.
According to the meteorological calendar, fall begins earlier in the month on Sept. 1. The meteorological date is based on the 12-month calendar and the annual temperature cycle.
How cool will fall 2025 be in Memphis?
Unfortunately, the Mid-South is not expected to receive much relief from the heat this fall. The Old Farmer's Almanac is predicting a warm and dry fall season for the entire state. The almanac lists the South as a region that can expect warmer-than-average weather this time of year.
"September and October will be warmer than normal, with below-average rainfall," The Old Farmer's Almanac writes.
The South is predicted to have an average temperature of 78 degrees in September, which is about 3 degrees above normal, and 4 inches of rain, about an inch below normal. October is predicted to have an average temperature of 64 degrees, one degree below normal, and 1.5 inches of rain, 1.5 inches below normal.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that fall, spanning from September to November, has a 33% to 40% chance of being above normal in terms of temperatures.
What was fall like in Memphis in 2024?
Overall, Tennessee experienced fairly consistent temperatures and precipitation amounts in 2024. As expected, the temperatures were about equal to the daily normals for each month; however, there was significantly more precipitation than the state typically receives.
In 2024, Memphis had an average temperature of 67.1 degrees for the three months of meteorological fall. September averaged 75.2 degrees, October averaged 68 degrees and November averaged 58 degrees. In the same three months, there was an average of 5.37 inches of rain. September totaled 9.89 inches, October totaled 0.76 inches and November totaled 5.46 inches.
When does it usually cool off in Memphis?
Memphis typically begins its journey into lower temperatures in late August, with the peak daily high dropping from 92 degrees to 91 degrees. After that, temperatures should start to drop steadily, as the average temperature in September ranges from 80 degrees at the start to 71 degrees at the end of the month.
When examining meteorological fall, which spans from Sept. 1 through Nov. 30, the normal daily maximum temperature starts at 90 degrees on Sept. 1 and finishes at 57 degrees on Nov. 30.
In Memphis, the average temperature in September is 76 degrees, with a normal total precipitation of 3.03 inches. October has a normal average temperature of 64.6 degrees, with a total precipitation normal of 3.98 inches. November in Memphis has an average temperature of 52.7 degrees and a total rainfall of 4.69 inches.
Jordan Green covers trending news for The Commercial Appeal. She can be reached at [e-mail].
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What Old Farmer's Almanac fall forecast predicts about Memphis heat
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