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Trump gets tough on Russia: What's hope for Ukraine can cause economic turmoil elsewhere
US President Donald Trump sips Diet Coke from his wine glass after a toast, during a luncheon for world leaders at the 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, US, September 25, 2018. File Image/Reuters
In a bold move, US President Donald Trump has drastically shortened the timeline he initially set for Russian President Vladimir Putin to secure a ceasefire with Ukraine.
Originally giving Russia 50 days, Trump now insists on a resolution in just '10 or 12 days,' signalling an aggressive push to alter the course of the ongoing war.
The timing is critical. Ukraine is grappling with its toughest moment on the battlefield since the conflict began.
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By September 3, the original deadline, Russia is poised to solidify significant territorial gains. Over the past two weeks, Moscow's forces have made rapid and strategic advances, positioning them to potentially encircle key eastern Ukrainian cities like Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Kupiansk in the north.
Such a development could shift the front lines dramatically, bringing Putin closer to his goal of seizing the Donetsk region.
The next '10 or 12 days' will be pivotal. If Trump's ultimatum proves to be another hollow threat or if the deadline shifts again, it could fuel perceptions of weakness within his administration. Critics have already pointed to a pattern they dub ' TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out), suggesting Trump may hesitate to follow through on tough measures.
Trump's secondary tariff gamble
Last week, Trump floated the idea of imposing tariffs as high as 100 per cent on Russia's trading partners if Putin fails to halt hostilities within six weeks.
However, this threat is fraught with complications.
Russia's closest trading partners, China and India, are deeply intertwined with the US in delicate trade and tariff negotiations.
Imposing secondary sanctions or tariffs on these nations could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.
Tariffing China, India to carry serious implications
India, a close US partner, relies heavily on Russian energy.
Complex mechanisms allow it to purchase this energy without destabilising global oil markets, which could otherwise drive up prices and harm the US economy.
China, a Russian ally, is even more dependent on Moscow's energy supplies and maintains a complicated, often tense economic relationship with the United States.
Sanctions on either country could disrupt global energy markets and strain US relations with two critical trading partners.
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If Trump follows through with these sanctions, his actions would mark a significant escalation compared to the policies of his predecessor, President Joe Biden. Yet, the risk of miscalculation looms large.
Punishing Russia's trading partners could derail ongoing negotiations with China and India, potentially backfiring on US interests and destabilising the global economy.
As the shortened deadline approaches, the world watches to see whether Trump's high-stakes gamble will force a breakthrough in the Ukraine conflict or lead to unintended consequences on the global stage.
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