Siena poll pits Hochul against Stefanik, Blakeman, Lawler for governor

Yahoo

3 days ago

Jul. 1—Gov. Kathleen C. Hochul leads the pack of likely gubernatorial candidates for next year's election, and Rep. Elise M. Stefanik is slightly outmatched by Hudson Valley Rep. Mike R. Lawler in theoretical contests against the incumbent, according to the latest Siena College Research Institute poll.
According to the poll released on Tuesday, Hochul has at least 20 points of advantage over any of the three Republicans who appear most likely to run for their party's nomination for governor; Stefanik, Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce A. Blakeman. In the three separate contests, SCRI found that Hochul would lead handily among Democrats and independents, and carry 44% of the vote against both Lawler and Blakeman, who would carry 24% and 19% of the vote respectively.
Against Stefanik, more people said they'd vote for Hochul, 47%, to 24% who would go to Stefanik. Stefanik did the best of the three with GOP voters and independents, but more Democrats said they'd vote Hochul over her than in the other contests if the election scheduled for November 2026 were held today.
"Recognizing that 16 months in politics is many lifetimes away, a first look at how New York voters feel about potential gubernatorial matchups shows that partisanship wins out. Hochul leads Lawler by 20 points, Stefanik by 23 points and Blakeman by 25 points," Siena College Research Institute Director Don Levy said in a statement alongside the poll results.
Levy noted that Hochul isn't pulling great numbers for an incumbent in such a heavily Democratic state, and that between one-fourth and one-third of voters had no choice in each of the three match-ups.
Hochul's job approval, favorability and basic reelection numbers aren't all positive either; while 50% approve of the job she's doing, more people dislike her, 47%, than like her, 42%, and only 37% said they'd reelect her versus a non-specific "other candidate." These numbers have stayed roughly the same for the last few months.
For Stefanik, favorability numbers are likewise underwater, with 25% of voters reporting that they like her and 32% who dislike her. Lawler is more closely tied, with 22% who like him to 24% who do not and 54% who don't know him or have no opinion.
In a Republican primary, Stefanik is most likely to win, but many minds are not made up. The numbers show that voters are favoring Stefanik 35%, to 18% for Lawler and 7% for Blakeman.
In a Democratic primary, Hochul far outpaces her one declared opponent, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. Delgado pulls 12% to Hochul's 49%, and Rep. Ritchie Torres, who has not declared a campaign for governor, gets 10%.
"One year out from a potential primary, two in five Republicans don't know who they'll support among Stefanik, Lawler and Blakeman, but Stefanik maintains an early lead, 17 points ahead of Lawler, who is 11 points ahead of Blakeman," Levy said. "On the Democratic side, Hochul has huge leads of 37 points over Delgado and 39 points over Torres, each of whom remains largely unknown to more than half of Democrats."
The poll also asked voters for their positions on a number of bills passed by the state legislature this year. Voters widely approved of the issues SCRI asked about, with at least 70% of Republicans, Democrats and independents each supporting a requirement that state agencies disclose when they use artificial intelligence and requiring state prisons to expand video and audio surveillance in prison common areas.
At least 60% of Democrats, Republicans and independents also said they supported a move to create a state utility consumer advocate's office to advocate for consumers before the Public Service Commission when utility companies seek rate increases.
A plurality of Republicans and a majority of Democrats and independents said they approved of a bill that allows the state attorney general to sue businesses on behalf of customers in cases of alleged unfair or abusive practices.
Perhaps the most controversial single-issue bill considered this year was one to allow medically assisted suicide, termed "medical aid in dying," in New York. The SCRI poll found that 54% of all New Yorkers back the bill as passed.
"While it doesn't have the same level of support as several other less controversial bills that passed the legislature at the end of session, voters support what some call medical aid in dying and others call physician assisted suicide, 54-28%. It has better than two-to-one support from Democrats and independents, and Republicans support it 48-39%," Levy said. "It has support from at least 53% of voters from every region of the state, and at least 54% support from young, middle-aged and older voters. Jewish voters, 53-30%, and Catholic voters, 52-30%, support it at virtually equal levels.
All those major pieces of legislation await the governor's approval, veto or negotiation on amendments, which must come before the end of the year.
This poll was conducted from June 23 to 26, reaching 800 New York voters via phone and an online polling platform. The margin of error is 4.4 percent in either direction.