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Time of India
a day ago
- Time of India
US core orders drop, reflecting caution
Non-defense capital goods shipments including aircraft, which feed directly into the equipment investment portion of the gross domestic product report, fell 0.9%. Rather than orders that can be canceled, the government uses data on shipments as an input to GDP. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Orders placed with US factories for business equipment unexpectedly declined in June, suggesting companies remained cautious about capital spending due to trade and government policy value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment excluding aircraft and military hardware, dropped 0.7% last month after an upwardly revised 2% gain in May, Commerce Department figures showed for all durable goods - items meant to last at least three years and including orders for commercial aircraft and military equipment - fell 9.3%. Earlier this month, Boeing Co. reported a slowdown in June capital goods shipments including aircraft, which feed directly into the equipment investment portion of the gross domestic product report, fell 0.9%. Rather than orders that can be canceled, the government uses data on shipments as an input to figures wrap a second quarter in which spending on equipment likely slowed sharply from an aircraft-related investment surge at the start of the year that was the biggest since 2020. The government will issue its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP next generally, business planners were challenged in the first half of the year by President Donald Trump 's frequent changes to tariffs as well as uncertainty surrounding legislation on taxes and spending. While passage earlier this month of Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act helps remove one leg of uncertainty, the fluid trade policy is leaving some businesses' investment plans in limbo."The uncertainty related to trade and tariffs, particularly for companies with global supply chains, continues to pose risks for long-term investment planning," Eliza Winger, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, said in a note.
Mint
2 days ago
- Mint
What the US-Japan trade pact means for everyone else
As details trickle in about the U.S.-Japan trade agreement announced late Tuesday, analysts see a potential path for other trading partners, including South Korea and the European Union, to strike their own deals ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline for tariffs to go into effect. The U.S. said it would impose 15% tariffs on Japan—lower than the 25% baseline duties threatened and lower than the 25% levies already imposed on their auto exports—and said Japan would invest $550 billion. Trump said the investment would be at his direction, with the U.S. reaping 90% of the profits. A White House official told Barron's that the 90% referred to returns on investment—like rent on a facility built with a fund financed by Japan—but further details were yet to be hashed out. Many analysts were awaiting that information to see what might be part of this commitment. Though the deal suggests that baseline tariffs will be higher than the 10% earlier expected as a universal tariff, it raised expectations that the worse-case scenarios of far higher tariffs, or an escalation in the trade war, weren't imminent. The S&P 500 hit a record high of 6352.63. The Japan deal is likely to light a fire under other trading partners to try to secure deals. Many geopolitical consultants say they expect the European Union and South Korea to hasten efforts to get deals, including on autos. Otherwise, their auto makers would be at a disadvantage, with their auto exports facing 25% tariffs, compared with the 15% Japan has agreed upon. 'More broadly, a lot of foreign governments' objectives have been to get the number below the prohibitive stage—25% to 35% stops most trade. If you get it below 20%, companies can manage it," said William Reinsch, former Commerce Department official and currently a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. South Korean negotiators have been in Washington, D.C., actively looking to secure a deal, according to trade analysts. The Wall Street Journal also reported Wednesday that the European Union is looking to secure an agreement as well, with tariffs at 15%, compared with the 30% threatened. 'If I'm the European Union, any hopes for 10% are gone and 15% is the focus; if I could mirror a Japan deal, that would be a win," said Owen Tedford, senior analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors. If Japan's agreement serves as a loose framework for deals, Tedford said, the pace of announcements could pick up in the days to Aug. 1. Analysts took special interest in the reduction in the sectoral tariffs on auto exports Japan managed to negotiate. These sectoral tariffs—both those already in place such as on autos and the 50% on aluminum and steel and those pending on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other areas—have been a major sticking point in many of the trade negotiations. 'It demonstrates that the Trump administration is willing to negotiate on sectoral tariffs," said Monica Gorman, managing director at Crowell Global Advisors and a former White House and Commerce Department official. 'Other countries, including the EU, are almost certainly taking notice." The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. trade negotiators appear to be on board with a EU deal that includes lowering the duty on autos to 15%, though Trump hasn't yet signed off on such an arrangement. There is a precedent for such flexibility. Steel and aluminum levies initially introduced in the first Trump administration were eventually reduced through bilateral deals and the use of quotas, Reinsh said. Still unclear is whether Japan, or any other country, has been able to get assurances it will receive preferential treatment on the various sectoral tariffs that are pending, as the United Kingdom did in its agreement. One common theme in agreements is commitments to buy American—investing in the U.S. as the Trump administration tries to bring back manufacturing or purchasing U.S. agricultural products, Boeing planes, or natural gas. But trade veterans are skeptical about the impact of that. 'The history [of such commitments] is that the numbers start out big and end up being very small," Reinsh said. 'Plus, several of these investment commitments have been packaging of commitments made earlier or that were already in the works." While trade veterans see momentum building for more agreements, they note that most of those so far have been light on details. Instead of the typical text that accompanied past pacts, agreement terms have been mostly outlined in social media posts and comments from officials—with the version of what was agreed upon sometimes not syncing up, as was the case with Vietnam, Reinsh adds. Trade-deal announcements aren't equivalent to agreements. Investors should expect more negotiations, and more after those. Write to Reshma Kapadia at
Time of India
3 days ago
- Time of India
White House unveils artificial intelligence policy plan
Academy Empower your mind, elevate your skills The White House on Wednesday released an artificial intelligence (AI) policy plan highlighting priorities for the US to achieve "global dominance" in the plan developed by US President Donald Trump's administration, calls for open-source and open-weight AI models to be made freely available by developers for anyone in the world to download and three core themes are accelerating AI innovation , build American AI infrastructure and lead in international AI diplomacy and Krishnan, White House advisor on AI policy, took to X to share the announcement. "There is a lot of exciting actions in here but one I'm very partial to is the focus on open source and open weights and making sure the U.S. leads in this critical area," his post AI plan calls for the Commerce Department to research Chinese AI models for alignment with Chinese Communist Party talking points and previously reported by Reuters, it adds the federal government should not allow AI-related federal funding to be directed toward states with "burdensome" regulations.(With inputs from Reuters)
