One-man, first-round PPR fantasy football 2025 mock draft: Who to prioritize?

New York Times

3 days ago

With the beginning of the 2025 NFL preseason comes another earnest campaign — the fantasy football draft season. Friends and co-workers are gathering in sports caves and watering holes. Strangers worldwide gather online to select their fantasy squads for the coming season. Those who know the rites are performing the Ritual of Sleeperus, where a chicken is sacrificed to the fantasy gods in an effort to curry their favor.
Advertisement
What? It's a rotisserie chicken. Maybe a bucket of Extra Crispy. What am I, a weirdo?
It's the best time of year in fantasy football. Whether you went 2-12 last year and had to wash your league champion's car or 12-2 and made them detail the interior too, that doesn't matter now. All that does is assembling the best possible team for 2025 — getting as many values as possible, targeting the right sleepers and avoiding fantasy busts.
Of course, that's easier said than done. As the old saying goes, 'You can't win your league on draft day, but you can lose it.' One misstep can be overcome. Two, even. But the more bad picks that pile up, the slimmer the chances a fantasy manager will make the playoffs — and the greater the odds they will reach for the Armor All after the season.
Fantasy managers dread nothing more than blowing their first-round selection — just ask the folks who took San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey first overall in 2024. (What idiot recommended that?) Generally speaking, the first round is pretty chalk — the order of the players taken may differ, but the names are the same.
This year is a little different, though. There's no consensus top-overall pick and more variance in Round 1 than usual. Were this writer making all 12 picks, this is how the round would play out.
And it won't take long for you to notice a pretty sizable curveball.
I'm no Bert Blyleven. But I try.
The times must be changing because I previously thought that using the first overall pick on a wide receiver was icky. But while Chase will likely regress some from last year's 'Triple Crown' stat line (127/1,708/17) and dominant WR1 overall finish in PPR points, he's still a safe bet for 100 catches, 1,300-1,500 yards and 8 to 12 scores. That fantasy floor is plenty appealing first overall — especially after last year's McCaffrey debacle.
Advertisement
Frankly, there isn't a high-end running back in fantasy football without a significant concern this year. For Robinson, it's 365 touches in 2024. The history of backs who hit 350 touches in a season is better than victims of 'The Curse of 370,' but better doesn't mean good. Still, Robinson was one of just two backs who averaged 21 PPR points per game over the second half of last season. Just do yourself a favor and add Tyler Allgeier as a handcuff to Robinson in the double-digit rounds.
Jefferson is nursing a hamstring injury that may make him available later than he should be in Round 1. But in five professional seasons, Jefferson has caught 100 passes, topped 1,500 receiving yards and scored 8+ touchdowns thrice. He has averaged more receiving yards per game (96.5) than any player in the history of the NFL and has thrived regardless of who the Vikings have rolled out at quarterback. He's also missed more than one game in a season just once.
As stated, all top-tier RBs come with some worry. With Gibbs, the concern has nothing to do with him but with the return of a healthy David Montgomery. Last year, Gibbs tied James Cook and Derrick Henry with 16 scores on the ground, and Gibbs had 20 touchdowns total. But with Montgomery on the field two years ago, Gibbs' touchdown numbers were cut nearly in half. Eleven touchdowns ain't cat food, but a drop from RB1 in 2024 to RB9 two seasons ago can't be ignored, either.
Lamb caught 101 passes for 1,194 yards and 6 scores last season on the way to a WR8 finish in PPR points — despite playing half the year with a backup quarterback under center. With Dak Prescott chucking him the rock two years ago, Lamb led the league in targets and receptions and finished second in receiving yards and touchdowns on the way to finishing as fantasy's No. 1 receiver. Yes, George Pickens is now in Dallas, but Lamb will get his — and the Cowboys should be throwing a lot in 2025.
McCaffrey is the king of risk-reward fantasy picks. If he hits, like he did two years ago, McCaffrey isn't just capable of finishing as the No. 1 overall running back in fantasy or surpassing 2,000 total yards, which he's done twice (and surpassed 1,800 total yards four times); he's capable of blowing every other running back out of the water. McCaffrey was RB1 by over 100 PPR points in 2023. But he has also missed 10 or more games three times, including 13 a season ago. If he misses, it's usually a season-killer.
Advertisement
St. Brown has become almost robotically productive for the Lions over the past three years — three straight seasons with over 140 targets. Three consecutive seasons of triple-digit receptions. Three consecutive seasons of over 1,150 receiving yards. And two consecutive campaigns with at least 10 touchdowns, including a 115/1,263/12 stat line and WR3 fantasy numbers last season. Even if Jameson Williams takes a step forward in 2025, St. Brown is still Jared Goff's go-to.
That a rookie may be the least risky of the high-end running backs speaks to how weird this year is. And Jeanty isn't truly risk-free — he could be staring at a lot of eight-man fronts in 2025, he carried the ball a ludicrous 374 times in 14 games last year at Boise State, and no matter how talented a back may seem in college, NFL success is not guaranteed (see Trent Richardson). But Jeanty isn't just talented — from all indications, he's a generational player who gained over 2,600 yards on the ground in 2024.
Nabers gave fantasy managers tachycardia recently when he left the practice field with a shoulder injury, but indications are the second-year pro will be fine. As a rookie for the Giants and with less-than-ideal quarterback play, Nabers averaged 11.3 targets a game (most in the NFL), caught 109 passes, topped 1,200 receiving yards and finished sixth in PPR points among receivers. Russell Wilson may not be the player he once was, but he'll be the best QB Nabers has played with — and he should be targeted a ton again in 2025.
Stop looking at me like that. Frankly, this writer probably won't have any Barkley shares in redraft this year — he'll be drafted earlier than this, and I'm not especially comfortable slotting him even this high. Barkley had a huge 2024 workload, rushed for over 2,000 yards and led the league in rushing. Historically, when a back does that in a season, it results in a down following season — like a 40% drop in production down season. I have already written about Barkley at length this summer — he's a landmine waiting to be stepped on.
It's not often there's a 31-year-old running back with almost 2,300 career carries who fantasy managers appear perfectly fine with drafting in Round 1. But Henry just keeps spitting in Father Time's eye — last year, he topped 1,900 rushing yards, tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns and averaged a career-best 5.9 yards per carry on the way to an RB3 fantasy finish in PPR points. The age cliff could still come, but Henry didn't look old in 2024.
Thomas isn't getting the run he should this year after catching 87 passes for 1,282 yards and 10 scores as a rookie on the way to a WR5 fantasy finish in a 2024 season where Trevor Lawrence was poo, then got hurt, and the quarterback situation in Jacksonville somehow got even worse. Yes, Travis Hunter is in town now, but Thomas didn't have Nabers' gaudy target numbers in 2024 — 130 is a hittable number again. Throw in Liam Coen coaching up Lawrence, and taking Thomas at the turn isn't a bad idea.
Puka Nacua, WR, LAR — I'm out on Nacua as a first-round pick, although I've seen him taken as high as the top-five. His talent is unquestionable. But the potential issues are adding up. Yes, Nacua was WR4 in points per game last year. But he missed six games, Davante Adams (who always seems to get his) joins him in Los Angeles, and now Matthew Stafford's 37-year-old, beat-to-hell back is ouchie. He's overvalued. Let someone else take the bait.
Advertisement
De'Von Achane, RB, MIA — Achane has to be the least-talked-about top-five running back from last season — the general fantasy malaise that has permeated the Dolphins this summer has dulled enthusiasm about the young speedster. But Achane flirted with 1,500 total yards in 2024, caught 78 passes and scored a dozen touchdowns — with under 300 touches. There's no reason to think that was an aberration or that Achane won't be a big part of Miami's offense again this year.
Nico Collins, WR, HOU — Collins is another pass in Round 1—and frankly, anywhere near his ADP of 14th overall. Sure, Collins topped 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight season in 2024 and checked in 10th among wide receivers in PPR points per game. But Collins has also missed multiple games in all four NFL seasons, his yards per target dropped by over 1.5 yards in 2024 compared to 2023, and C.J. Stroud will die behind Houston's five-matador offensive line. Other than that, everything is fine.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.
(Photo of Malik Nabers and Paulson Adebo: Ishika Samant / Getty Images)