Amcor plc (AMCR): A Bull Case Theory

Yahoo

15-07-2025

We came across a bullish thesis on Amcor plc on Valueinvestorsclub.com by singletrack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on AMCR. Amcor plc's share was trading at $9.66 as of July 11th. AMCR's trailing and forward P/E were 17.31 and 11.75 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
An old-fashioned food production line with employees packaging an assortment of products.
The recent merger of Amcor and Berry Global creates a market leader in plastic packaging, offering an attractive investment opportunity driven by synergy realization and steady growth. Amcor, an Australian company with strong global exposure, and Berry together will nearly double Amcor's revenues and solidify its leadership in flexible and rigid packaging. The combined entity will benefit from significant cost and scale advantages, as it becomes 3-4 times larger than its next competitor.
Flexible packaging, used for consumer staples like baby food and snack bags, will make up 60% of revenue, while rigid packaging, such as shampoo bottles and peanut butter jars, contributes the remaining 40%. Despite sustainability concerns about plastics, the products made by Amcor and Berry are highly specialized, harder to substitute, and essential for food safety and medical use. Moreover, Amcor leads the industry in R&D spending, driving innovation toward more recyclable and efficient solutions.
Historically resilient through economic cycles, both companies demonstrated volume stability during the COVID pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis, reinforcing their defensive end-market exposure. While recent packaging volumes have been volatile, likely due to post-pandemic destocking, organic EBITDA growth has remained positive, supported by product mix shifts and cost controls.
The merged company is expected to grow EPS by 15% annually through 2028, with nearly half of this growth coming from well-supported cost synergies. Amcor's proven acquisition track record (Alcan, Bemis) and Berry's success with RPC bolster confidence in synergy execution. Trading at just 11.5x forward EPS, with intrinsic value seen 50% higher, the stock offers an appealing risk/reward driven by scale, resilience, and strong synergy catalysts.
Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) by Serhio MaxDividends in May 2025, which highlighted the company's leadership in labeling and materials science and its strong dividend growth. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 0.35% since our coverage. Singletrack shares a similar view but emphasizes on Amcor's packaging scale and synergy-driven growth post its Berry Global merger.
Amcor plc is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 40 hedge fund portfolios held AMCR at the end of the first quarter which was 29 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of AMCR as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.