Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios predictions, odds, picks: Does Pacquiao, 46, stand a chance?

Yahoo

19-07-2025

Manny Pacquiao, 46, looks to become the second-oldest world champion in boxing history with a win over WBC welterweight titleholder Mario Barrios on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
A win for Pacquiao could set up a potential Floyd Mayweather Jr. rematch — no, we have not gone back to 2010. But Pacquiao will certainly be hoping to turn back the clock Saturday and find a performance that would've been expected from him in the late 2010s.
Aside from an intriguing title showdown in the main event, there are two thrilling rematches on the pay-per-view card and the return of a former champion. It's an action-packed event Saturday, so let's dive in and break it all down.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
WBC welterweight title: Manny Pacquiao (+260) vs. Mario Barrios (-313)
"Father time waits for no one," the adage goes.
Pacquiao hopes to defy logic and dethrone Barrios, 16 years younger, from his WBC reign. "PacMan" hasn't stepped into a boxing ring since his decision loss to late replacement Yordenis Ugas in 2021. The last time the Filipino legend won a fight was his split-decision triumph over Keith Thurman in 2019 — six years to the day on Sunday.
When Pacquiao faced Japanese kickboxer Rukiya Anpo in July 2024, he looked like a shell of the man who was a fixture on pound-for-pound lists a decade ago. If Pacquiao were facing another welterweight champion this weekend, namely Jaron "Boots" Ennis, I wouldn't give him even a remote chance. But with Barrios, it becomes a more interesting matchup.
Barrios is one of the weaker champions in recent welterweight history. He lost to Keith Thurman comfortably three years ago and fought to a draw against a past-his-best Abel Ramos in November.
If Pacquiao is going to suddenly come back and win a welterweight title, he's picked the correct champion to do it against. Even so, I don't think we will see Pacquiao get his hands raised in Las Vegas.
Pacquiao was beaten by precision and simple long-range boxing against Cuba's Ugas four years ago. On that night, the speed and footwork that made the world fall in love with Pacquiao were nowhere to be found. And it's highly unlikely that four years later, we will see those attributes reappear again.
Many boxers think they can come out of retirement and perform like they did decades ago. A fighter is always the last to admit when his time is over. In recent years, we've seen 58-year-old Mike Tyson, 60-year-old Oliver McCall, and now 46-year-old Ricky Hatton all come out of retirement. It was painful to watch Tyson and McCall return so many years after their primes, and no doubt it will be similarly difficult to watch Hatton end a 13-year retirement in December.
If Barrios can use his reach advantage to keep the fight with Pacquiao at long range and meet the Filipino with a sharp jab every time he attempts to close the gap — as Barrios did at times against Ramos — I can see Barrios winning comfortably. Pacquiao's timing and speed will let him down. The mind knows what to do, but the body won't be able to carry it out.
Anpo, who has a similar frame to Barrios, set out the blueprint to beat Pacquiao. Barrios just needs to follow it for 36 minutes.
Pick: Barrios
WBC super welterweight title: Sebastian Fundora (+125) vs. Tim Tszyu (-163)
It was a brutal, bloody battle between Sebastian Fundora and Tim Tszyu for the unified super welterweight championship in March 2024.
Tszyu was scheduled to face Thurman in the pay-per-view main event, but an injury to Thurman forced him to withdraw just 10 days out. Tszyu accepted Fundora as the late replacement, despite not preparing for Fundora's style and unique dimensions.
All was going well for Tszyu in the early minutes of the fight until he suffered a horrific cut at the end of the second round from an elbow. Fighting with a cut of that magnitude, Tszyu faced the biggest adversity of his career. After dominating early, the bout began to get away from him — and before the Aussie knew it, Fundora's hands were raised after 12 action-packed rounds. Tszyu had lost his title belt.
Rather than jump into a rematch, Tszyu chose to go straight into another title fight against the little-known IBF champion Bakhram Murtazaliev. Murtazaliev, a heavy underdog, put together the performance of his career, destroying Tszyu inside three rounds after four brutal knockdowns.
Tszyu had departed Australia looking for the American dream that his famous father, Kostya Tszyu, experienced in the late 1990s and early 2000s — but 2024 turned into a nightmare year.
Fundora made a successful defense of his title this past March, stopping Chordale Booker in four rounds, while Tszyu returned to his winning ways against Joey Spencer two weeks later. Now the rivals are set to do it all again.
It could be a very different fight from their first meeting 16 months ago. Both men have had a full camp to prepare for the other this time around, and the momentum is firmly in Fundora's favor, with Tszyu still perhaps fighting the demons of a horrific 2024 campaign.
Fundora, despite being a towering figure, refuses to use his physical advantages. The champ prefers to fight at close range and trade with shorter, more compact boxers. The key for him in this matchup will be to mix it up and fight with a tight guard.
After getting knocked out, will Tszyu be as willing to put himself in danger trading with Fundora? Tszyu was noticeably more patient and defensively responsible in the early rounds of his return against Spencer. Tszyu could make the mistake of letting Fundora get in a rhythm and build up momentum if he doesn't disrupt Fundora's flow early.
I expect it to be another grueling, evenly matched fight, but for Fundora to edge out another win and send Tszyu back down under with another defeat to his name.
Pick: Fundora
Featherweight: Brandon Figueroa (-250) vs. Joet Gonzalez (+195)
Brandon Figueroa looks to get back into the win column against veteran contender Joet Gonzalez.
Figueroa, who formerly held the WBC super bantamweight title, was defeated by Stephen Fulton in his bid to become a two-weight champion in February. Fulton also beat Figueroa in 2021 in a unification slugfest. The second meeting between the pair was far more reserved, with Fulton outboxing Figueroa to a comfortable unanimous decision.
Three of Gonzalez's four defeats have come via decisions in world title fights. The California native has proven to be slightly below the world level. Gonzalez upset top contender Arnold Khegai by split decision in March to book himself a big fight and big stage against Figueroa.
It is very much a loser-goes-home type of matchup in the night's pay-per-view opener. The winner could be on his way to another shot at a championship, but the man who leaves empty-handed Saturday will be a long way away from another chance against the division's elite.
Fight fans have seen enough of Figueroa to know how he fights by now — he puts relentless pressure on his opponents and looks to overwhelm them with volume. Gonzalez fights smarter than that — but not in the "Tom and Jerry" way, to use Turki Alalshikh's phrase. He is a terrific body puncher and counter-puncher, but can also slug it out when necessary.
Figueroa's performances against Magdaleno and Fulton leave a lot to be desired, while Gonzalez seems to be leveraging his experience to outlast and better contenders on the way up. It will be a closely contested fight that is almost certain to go the distance. I think the momentum could be in Gonzalez's favor for an upset.
Pick: Gonzalez
Undercard quick picks:
Super bantamweight: David Picasso (-1400) def. Kyonosuke Kameda (+900)
Lightweight: Mark Magsayo (-800) def. Jorge Mata (+550)
Super featherweight: Gary Allen Russell Jr. (-1200) def. Hugo Castaneda (+850)