Movies might never be the same under Trump's new plan
I'm not talking about a water slide at Wet'n'Wild. I'm talking about the Main Tank at the Village Roadshow Studios.
It is where they have shot some of the world's most exciting water sequences for major movies, and it is potentially about to become simply a big waste of water, if Donald Trump's latest brainfart becomes a reality.
Trump's latest idea is to put a huge tariff on movies filmed outside America.
He announced it via a social media post on Monday morning Australia time, in a highly unexpected move.
The biggest issue here is that tariffs apply to things. Goods, not services.
The WTO defines tariff as 'customs duties on merchandise imports.'
It's easy to put a tariff on merchandise. Like imported bananas. The government finds them in a big box at the border, they know how much the bananas cost, and they add a tariff on each piece of fruit.
Movies are not like that. They're technically a service. And they are one of most complicated things to try to put a tax on.
If Steven Spielberg shoots a movie on location, in New York and Paris, starring Cate Blanchett and George Clooney, what share of that movie is American?
If he sends a few New York scenes to a special effects house in London for a few quick tweaks, then what?
And if a guy who lives in Tokyo emails some extra percussion for the score to a composer based in LA? How does Mr Trump plan to account for that?
It is quite different to a banana.
Balls up
Trump's idea is dreadful for the movie business in every way.
How is the industry meant to proceed when it has so many projects under way?
For example, the latest movie starring Mark Wahlberg.
It sounds a bit like a variation on The Hangover – two middle aged dudes get drunk and cause a ton of trouble in an action-comedy.
The film, called Balls Up, is set in Brazil but filmed in Queensland. It is coming out at some point in the next year or so.
Will it be subject to these tariffs? Nobody knows.
So when do the tariffs start? Trump's post says he is authorising the bureaucrats to 'immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% tariff.'
A bureaucratic process can take a long time. Or a short time.
Tariffs could start at any moment. I suspect quite a few films will be rushed out, and quite a few more could be put on ice.
It's a bad time to be a movie fan, and a bad time to be one of the 27,000 Australians employed in the video production business.
Including the guy whose job it is to turn up the heating on the Main Tank before Hollywood stars get in it (the water can be warmed to 32 degrees and one assumes big stars like Mark Wahlberg have that temperature written into their contract).
The Gold Coast based move studio has three other huge water tanks, and nine enormous sound stages.
All of them are at risk.
World affairs
The movie business is extremely global.
The highest grossing movie of all time? Avatar.
It is famous for its digital effects, which were put together by Weta, a movie business based in New Zealand.
The second highest grossing movie of all time is Avengers Endgame, which Weta also worked on.
It was filmed in America, England and Scotland.
Even the salary of an actor is given, in part, for global marketing. They are paid not only to star in the movie put to pop up all over the world a bit later to promote it.
If Robert Downey Junior comes to Sydney and sits in the Park Hyatt and does 15 short interviews with press outlets, that is part of the budget of the movie and part of what the actor is paid for.
Is it happening in America – no. Is it subject to tariffs? I doubt it … but I don't know.
This is just one tiny glimpse at how complicated things can get in the world of services.
You can't expect a global industry to retreat inside the borders of America.
Hollywood made a movie called Synecdoche in 2008. The word refers to when the part stands in for the whole.
The term Hollywood is itself a synecdoche – the suburb of Los Angeles is just the headquarters for an industry that does things all over the world.
Expecting that to reverse, and actually have all the Hollywood stuff done in America, is crazy.
Trump doing Trump things
Is this just a distraction? Trump loves to be the centre of attention. He is very good at it too.
This idea for a tariff on movies came out about 20 minutes after another captivating idea to reopen the San Francisco island prison of Alcatraz, 'to house America's most ruthless and violent offenders.'
You have to wonder if he actually ever saw the famous film Escape from Alcatraz.
It is based on true events – three prisoners held there truly did escape and set off for the mainland.
They were never seen again, and their fate is unknown. Probably the same will be true of this Alcatraz idea.
As for the movie tariff threat, there is another alternative. Quite possibly, Trump knows this is a bad idea for the movie business and for Hollywood.
He's just tired of them not sucking up to him. T
his could be a threat – nice industry you have here, shame if anything happened to it – designed to get the media industry to play nice.
Maybe Trump just needs a cameo in the next big Marvel movie and everything will be okay.
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