Is the Russia-India-China Troika Making a Comeback?

The Diplomat

4 days ago

In May, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow was interested in reviving the Russia-India-China (RIC) troika. Speaking at a security conference on May 29, Russia's top diplomat said 'I would like to confirm our genuine interest in the earliest resumption of the work within the format of troika – Russia, India, China,' noting that the format, since its launch had 'organized meetings more than 20 times at the ministerial level… not only at the level of foreign policy chiefs, but also the heads of other economic, trade, and financial agencies of three countries.'
The idea of triliteral cooperation was first floated in the 1990s and was institutionalized in 2002, which Lavrov credited to Yevgeny Primakov, the late chair of the Russian International Affairs Council. Since then, as the Russian foreign minister pointed out, the RIC had convened nearly two dozen times – but not in the recent past.
The last meeting of the RIC leaders took place in 2019 on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan. Before that, the leaders of three countries held an informal summit on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The RIC troika has been inactive since November 2021, following a virtual meeting of the RIC foreign ministers. Initially, the format was put on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and it was further stalled by the military standoff between China and India in Eastern Ladakh in 2020. However, with China-India relations undergoing a relative thaw, Russia now appears to be keen on reviving the trilateral grouping.
In this context, last week, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko stated that he was in negotiations with both Beijing and New Delhi on the revival of the RIC troika. 'This topic appears in our negotiations with both of them,' Rudenko said. 'We are interested in making this format work because these three countries are important partners. The absence of this format, in my opinion, looks inappropriate.' This manifests the clear Russian push to revive the troika, which could provide Moscow with a platform to advance and secure its national interests.
Besides Russia, China has also shown interest in the RIC's return. Responding to a question regarding Russia's intentions to revive the bloc, China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian said that 'China is willing to maintain communication with Russia and India to advance trilateral cooperation.' He added, 'The cooperation among China, Russia, and India not only aligns with the respective interests of the three countries, but also contributes to regional and global peace, security, stability, and progress.'
In light of Beijing's regional rivalry with New Delhi, Moscow believes that India is being drawn into the West's anti-Chinese strategies. Reviving the troika format would enable Beijing to have more direct contact with New Delhi and potentially allay concerns about India joining the 'China containment' bloc.
India, on the other hand, as of now, seems non-committal on the revival of the RIC format. When asked about the group's revival, Randhir Jaiswal, the Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson, gave a bland answer: 'This consultative format is a mechanism where the three countries come and discuss global issues and regional issues of interest to them.' He continued: 'As to when this particular RIC format meeting is going to be held, it is something that will be worked out among the three countries in a mutually convenient manner, and we will let you know as and when that happens at an appropriate time when the meeting is to take place.'
Indian media sources report that no RIC troika meeting has been agreed upon, and there are currently no discussions about scheduling a meeting in this format.
Still, given the slow but steady progress on normalizing relations between China and India in recent months, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's recent visit to Beijing, the revival of the RIC troika is quite plausible. Russia, struggling with sanctions over its war in Ukraine, would go to any length to revive this bloc. China's support would certainly provide a boost to Russian ambitions and interests. Russia's strategic relations with both China and India can play an important role vis-à-vis the format's revival and Moscow will hope to successfully bring both countries to the table.
However, the role of the U.S., particularly under President Donald Trump, may be the most significant factor for the revival of the RIC troika.
Since his return to the White House, Trump has resumed his strategy of imposing tariffs, which has sparked a trade war, particularly with China. His protectionist ideals do not align with those of India, as ongoing tariff uncertainties could harm New Delhi's economic and political interests. The last meeting among the RIC leaders in Osaka in 2019 took place under a similar context. Back then, India's Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale, stated, 'All three leaders have agreed that in an era of economic and global change, it is important to uphold the trend of globalization. Maintaining the liberalization of trade, a free trading system, an open trading system, and a rules-based trading system is essential to counter the tendency toward protectionism.' While the situation and circumstances may not be exactly the same as they were in 2019, Trump's trade strategy remains unchanged, which could lead to the revival of the RIC troika.
Together, China, India, and Russia could form a Eurasian power that balances Western dominance. These three countries are already part of organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which are also seen as efforts to counter Western influence. The RIC troika could certainly contribute to the promotion of a multipolar world with multiple centers of power, potentially undermining Western dominance. But for this to occur, all three countries must discuss their global and regional priorities. Until that happens, the RIC troika will remain in a state of uncertainty.