BOJ to Hold Rate Steady With Likely Upgrade to Price View
All 56 economists forecast Governor Kazuo Ueda's board will leave the central bank's interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at the end of a two-day policy meeting, according to a Bloomberg survey this month. In the bank's quarterly economic outlook report, the inflation projection for this fiscal year is likely to be revised higher, they said.
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The Fight Over Venezuela's Most Valuable Asset Is Heating Up
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Trump's Next Job: Selling Skeptical Americans on His Economy
(Bloomberg) -- Six months into his comeback term, Donald Trump has taken full ownership of the US economy. For better or worse, his party must now sell it to voters. The World's Data Center Capital Has Residents Surrounded An Abandoned Art-Deco Landmark in Buffalo Awaits Revival We Should All Be Biking Along the Beach Seeking Relief From Heat and Smog, Cities Follow the Wind San Francisco in Talks With Vanderbilt for Downtown Campus The president has hailed the world's 'hottest' economy – and found others to blame for any wobbles. When Friday's jobs report showed a dramatic slowdown in hiring, he fired the head of the agency that published it. He's pinned some frustrations on his predecessor Joe Biden, and continues to berate the Federal Reserve for what he considers too-high interest rates. But for political purposes, his takeover has now been cemented — after passage of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' tax-and-spending law, and the latest phase of his global tariff rollout. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trumpeted the transition: 'The Trump Economy has officially arrived,' he posted on social media. The question is whether Americans like it. Next year Trump's economic record will be on the midterm ballot. Polls suggest voters are unhappy with the tariffs and tax plans — potentially giving Democrats an opening. The loss of GOP majorities in Congress could stall Trump's legislative agenda and expose him to impeachment efforts, as it did in his first term. The July employment figures, with job creation running at the weakest pace since the pandemic, were the latest indicator of a slowing economy. GDP shrank in the first quarter then rebounded in the second, as trade shifts skewed the numbers — but the overall pace in the first half of 2025 has been around half of last year's, with consumers hitting the brakes amid trade-war uncertainty. Still, unemployment remains low and so far there's been little sign of the tariff-led surge in prices that many pundits warn of. 'The economy has held up remarkably well. Inflation has stayed relatively tame. But I do think there are storm clouds on the horizon,' said Republican strategist Marc Short, who served in Trump's first administration. Many businesses have so far avoided passing on tariff costs to consumers, he said, but 'the frog has been boiling all along.' Trump announced another round of tariff hikes this week, after months of often chaotic threats and reversals. Almost all US trading partners now face higher rates. The import taxes are bringing in billions in government revenue, but the longer-term economic impact remains unclear. Critics say US consumers and businesses will foot the bill. A recent Fox News poll shows that 62% of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of tariffs – while 58% are against the tax and spending bill, and 55% are unhappy with his overall handling of the economy. Voters are especially sensitive to the cost of living right now after prices skyrocketed under the Biden administration. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cited the risk that tariffs could rekindle inflation as one reason for holding interest rates steady – to Trump's fury. The president has campaigned aggressively for lower rates, hinting he may fire Powell before his term ends next May. On Friday he called on the Fed's board to 'assume control' if Powell doesn't deliver a cut. There were some signs in June's price data that tariffs are starting to nudge prices higher for products like furniture and appliances. Still, the White House has a decent story to tell, according to Republican strategist Alex Conant. 'I would certainly take this economy over two or three years ago,' he said. 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He's raised $236 million for his political operation in the first six months of 2025 — an unprecedented sum for a second-term president. The latest filings to the Federal Election Commission suggest most of that cash will be available for GOP House and Senate candidates. Trump is also urging Texas lawmakers to redraw the state's congressional map in an effort to win House districts that are more favorable to Republicans — a move Democrats have decried as a power grab. Midterm elections historically favor the party out of power — potentially giving a boost to Democrats, who were soundly beaten in 2024. But the opposition party is also struggling in the polls, and hasn't coalesced around an effective appeal to voters. Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who has said he is considering a 2028 Democratic presidential bid, said the party has a clear economic message available for the midterms – which includes focusing on tariffs as an effective tax hike. 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Despite lower earnings than a year ago, Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) investors are up 92% since then
These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). To wit, the Five Below, Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVE) share price is 92% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 18% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! In contrast, the longer term returns are negative, since the share price is 3.9% lower than it was three years ago. Although Five Below has shed US$303m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS). During the last year, Five Below actually saw its earnings per share drop 10%. Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors. We think that the revenue growth of 11% could have some investors interested. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best. You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image). It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Five Below will earn in the future (free profit forecasts). A Different Perspective It's nice to see that Five Below shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 92% over the last year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 5% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Five Below has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of. But note: Five Below may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast). Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
