Russia Proposes Revival of Troika with India and China
Russia Proposes Revival of Troika with India and China | Vantage with Palki Sharma
Russia's foreign minister has called for reviving his country's trilateral forum with India and China. What is the significance of the Russia-India-China troika? Why was it frozen? Should India agree to Russia's proposal and revive it? Palki Sharma brings you three factors to keep in mind.
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Hindustan Times
a minute ago
- Hindustan Times
For Pakistan & US, it is back to doing business
There is a discernible sense of satisfaction within Pakistan's strategic fraternity at the undeniable uptick in the US-Pakistan interface over the past few months. Some may dispute the extent, but given how the relationship had eroded in the past decade-and-a-half, any improvement represents a big change. Given the transactional nature that dominates the US, there is the temptation to find direct factors for the upswing in US-Pakistan relations. (AP) The principal milestones of the US-Pakistan downturn are well known. For Pakistan, the US detection and killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011 in Abbottabad was a betrayal and a public humiliation. For many Pakistanis, that the US acted clandestinely deep inside Pakistan superseded the enormity of the fact that Osama had been living there all the time under the very noses of the Pakistan military. The free fall continued with mounting US frustrations over Pakistan's double game in Afghanistan. President Trump's 2018 New Year Day tweet exemplified this view. The tweet underlined US foolishness in giving Pakistan billions of dollars in aid in return for deceit and lies! This was consistent with emergent US narratives about Pakistan, but that it was from the President himself made it doubly significant. Through the Biden tenure matters crystallised at a low plateau of bad blood and mutual recriminations. The US's final withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 in disorder and disarray added another layer to the deep strategic mistrust and suspicion that now characterised the relationship. President Biden did not have even a telecon with Imran Khan during the time he was PM and Imran Khan in turn blamed the US for his premature ouster from power. In the meantime, most US military and security assistance was suspended. What perhaps hurt Pakistan the most was the impact this had on training programmes for Pakistan military officers in the US. All this happened also when the India-US relationship seemed effortlessly to go from strength to strength. This further highlighted the distance between Washington and Islamabad. The past few months appear quite different. The change was animated quite dramatically by Field Marshal Asim Munir being hosted by President Trump in June 2025 in the immediate aftermath of Operation Sindoor. It is most unusual — perhaps even unprecedented — for a US president to host a chief of a foreign military who is not a head of State or government. This shift also coincides with new ambiguities in the US-India interface — perhaps triggered by President Trump's constant reiteration of having prevented further escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict during Operation Sindoor. To many in Pakistan, this has 'internationalised' Kashmir and highlighted the importance of third-party intervention as equally that even the US was skeptical about India's claims and demands. There had been earlier indicators of change beginning with President Trump's acknowledgement of Pakistan's counter-terrorism assistance in his State of the Union Address in March 2025. The allocation of a significant financial package as assistance to Pakistan for maintaining its F16 aircraft despite an otherwise stringent foreign aid cutback, was another. Alongside, more even-handed references to the India-Pakistan dynamic, meetings and telephone conversations between the US secretary of State and senior Pakistan leaders further underlined this shift. The announcement of a US-Pakistan Trade Agreement, albeit with a 19% tariff on imports from Pakistan, and Trump's enthusiastic references to hydrocarbon exploration and investment, are but the latest in this trend. The trade agreement may not be the best deal Pakistan could have got, but it is not as bad as could have been, and in any case some deal was better than no deal as far as the government of Pakistan was concerned. It may well be argued that there is nothing particularly significant in these transitions, but for most Pakistanis they suggest a return of their country to the US's radar after a long period of being out in the cold. What explains this shift? Given the transactional frame of mind that dominates the US, there is always the temptation to look for a direct and material factor. Numerous reasons are, therefore, assigned for this shift in US policy. Pakistan's counter-terrorism potential and the assistance it can offer is one. That the US is keen to have some relationship with Pakistan given the growing spread of China in the region is another. There is also the view that recommendations of the US Central Command on Pakistan's military potential vis-à-vis Iran in terms of its geographical location and the value of its air bases may have registered on the Presidency amid the current situation in West and South West Asia. Some argue that this shift in policy was also pushed along by crypto currency deals, and by US interest in potential Pakistani reserves of rare earth minerals. Each of these explanations may have some merit but perhaps the weight of any or all of these should not be exaggerated. Instead, it is useful to refocus on some basics. Pakistan is the fifth largest country in the world in terms of population with some 250 million people. It is riven by instability. It has nuclear weapons. It is situated in a sensitive geo-political location, almost in a global fault line. Given these attributes it was always only a matter of time that the long downturn in US Pakistan relations would reverse and US interest in Pakistan would reignite. We are at that stage now. All major powers decide on policies based on an appreciation of their own interests and their own understandings of evolving situations. To think that the long downturn in US Pakistan relations would have simply continued or that the US would see developments from our perspective alone is, and never was, a realistic assessment. We should take this shift in our stride. If some in India feel betrayed or dismayed at this turn of events, they have only themselves to blame. TCA Raghavan is a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan. The views expressed are personal.
Time of India
a minute ago
- Time of India
Why Trump's tariff threat to India is more about politics than trade
Why Trump's tariff threat to India is more about politics than trade Ajay Srivastava Aug 5, 2025, 20:40 IST IST Washington's tariff pressure comes even as US tech firms rely on India for users, data, and talent — raising questions over whether the dispute is economic strategy or political arm-twisting By the time this went to print, Trump hadn't specified by how much he will 'substantially raise' tariffs on Indian exports on top of the 25% tariffs already imposed. Whatever the hit, with India's $86.5bn in goods exports to US under threat, it's fair to ask: Is India the only one buying oil from Russia? Why is US focusing on restricting oil imports? Is its position in the Russia-Ukraine war as clearcut as it claims? Crucially, is Trump targeting India because he can't go after China? It's worth exploring the facts behind the claims.
Hindustan Times
a minute ago
- Hindustan Times
India's economic resilience guards against tariff threats
The impact of the US's 25% tariff on imports from India appears to be far less catastrophic than what some had predicted. Meanwhile, the trade deal with the US remains in negotiation, and there is every reason to expect that once talks advance, the tariff rate could be scaled down. Estimates suggest that the 25% tariff might translate into an annual impact of just $10-11 billion — a relatively modest impact. While the India-UK FTA negotiations were multifaceted, the agreement was not solely about lowering tariffs or increasing trade volumes; it was also about redefining economic diplomacy in a multipolar world. (Bloomberg) With the American delegation scheduled to visit New Delhi later in August, both sides have ample opportunity to recalibrate their positions. Trade deals are shaped not by threats but by diligent negotiations between officials representing institutional interests of their respective countries. In that light, US President Donald Trump's statements seem part of a broader tactic aimed at bolstering America's bargaining position rather than signalling an irreversible shift in economic policy. Therefore, there is no need to panic. India's growth story is one of rising momentum, driven by deep structural shifts and smart strategic positioning. Over the past year, India has defied global headwinds that have hindered many advanced economies. While high inflation, tightening monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainty have strained markets elsewhere, India has maintained an impressive growth trajectory. India's ability to sustain high growth is anchored in robust domestic demand, strong public capital expenditure, and the sustained expansion of its booming services sector. At the same time, there has been a deliberate policy recalibration toward achieving self-reliance, integrating global supply chains and boosting manufacturing competitiveness. Initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes across sectors such as electronics, semiconductors and renewable energy have attracted substantial foreign direct investment. Moreover, the nation's digital revolution has firmly established India as a leader in the digital economy across the Global South. In this context, the recently-signed India-UK free trade agreement (FTA) takes on added significance. While the FTA negotiations were multifaceted, the agreement was not solely about lowering tariffs or increasing trade volumes; it was also about redefining economic diplomacy in a multipolar world. For India, an ambitious FTA with the UK offers several strategic advantages. One, it sends a positive signal to global investors, affirming that India remains open for business — both strategic and reform-minded. Two, the deal provides a pathway for India to build deeper trade links with advanced economies at a time when globalisation is evolving towards regionalisation. And three, the agreement reinforces India's effort to diversify its export markets — a crucial counterbalance to the uncertainties of US trade policy and the slowing pace of growth in some of its traditional markets. The UK is currently India's 18th largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $50 billion. The FTA will serve to lower existing tariffs, ease regulatory hurdles and promote greater mobility for Indian professionals. Even contentious issues, such as agricultural trade, though politically sensitive, appear manageable. The relatively modest scale of UK agricultural exports could provide the room needed to sidestep potential disputes, easing negotiation complexities on that front. At the same time, India's impressive economic performance is underscored by several headline-grabbing trends across its major sectors. For instance, in the realm of global supply chains, India has emerged as a formidable competitor in the smartphone market. This transformation illustrates how India is successfully capitalising on new geopolitical realities and diversifying manufacturing hubs. Additionally, macroeconomic indicators have painted an encouraging picture. With retail inflation falling to a six-year low of 2.1% in June 2025, the consumer sector has found its footing amid otherwise volatile global conditions. Employment metrics reveal a healthy labour market. Exports have seen a year-on-year boost of approximately 5.9%, while remittances have reached a record $135.5 billion. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in July 2025 hit a 17-year high of 59.2, reflecting robust industrial activity and strong global demand. Public health initiatives, too, have contributed significantly to the overall picture. The Jan Aushadhi Kendras, which offer affordable medicine and have saved citizens ₹38,000 crore in health care costs over the last 11 years, exemplify how policy initiatives are directly alleviating household expenses and improving standards of living. Energy and infrastructure sectors are part of this rosy picture as well. India has crossed the 1-billion-tonne mark for coal production — a symbol of its energy self-reliance — while simultaneously ramping up renewable energy capacity. With 22 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity added in the first half of 2025, India is on track to overtake the US in clean energy installations. In the digital domain, India's transformation is truly remarkable, which reinforces India's position as a hub of technological innovation. Furthermore, the growth of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) in Tier-II and Tier-III cities — now numbering over 1,700 and generating $64.6 billion in revenue — demonstrates a broader socio-economic transformation. With these centres creating tens of thousands of jobs outside the traditional Tier-I urban hubs, India is leveraging lower costs, burgeoning talent pools, and improved infrastructure to reshape its economic geography. In essence, while President Trump's statements may have generated headlines, the underlying data tells a more encouraging story. India's broad-based growth, strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and strategic policy shifts point to an economy that is far more robust and resilient than any single trade dispute could jeopardise. Rather than succumbing to external pressure, India is actively repositioning itself as a major player on the global stage, capable of turning challenges into opportunities. Ultimately, the narrative is one of confidence, adaptability and strategic foresight. India's economic resilience serves as a compelling counterpoint to any external rhetoric. The picture, then, is not one of crisis but of calculated evolution — a testament to India's ongoing journey towards becoming a robust and dynamic engine of global growth. Syed Zafar Islam is a national spokesperson of the BJP, former Member of Parliament, and former managing director, Deutsche Bank, India. The views expressed are personal.
